🏆 And Then There Were Two
The Mavericks and Celtics square off in the NBA Finals
Luka Doncic vs. Jayson Tatum. Doesn’t get much better than that.
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM.
NBA Finals: Bet the Celtics to wrap things up quickly?
Watercooler: Happy Paul Skenes Day.
The Memorial: Target this +3000 Outright at Muirfield.
It’s 6/5. Take it away, Matt LaMarca…
The NBA Finals kick off on Thursday, and opinions on this series seem pretty split. From a metrics standpoint, the Celtics stand out as the clearly superior team. They were first in Net Rating during the regular season, possessing the No. 1 offense and No. 2 defense. They’re still at the top of the leaderboard during the postseason, albeit against an easy schedule.
Still, it seems like there are plenty of people who are supporting Dallas. They’ll have the best player in the series in Luka Doncic, and he has a superstar running mate in Kyrie Irving. If those two players can outperform the Celtics’ star duo, it gives the Mavericks a puncher’s chance.
There are plenty of ways we can attack this series game-by-game, but how should we be betting the series? I have a few ideas, which I discussed with Matthew Freedman on the Betting Life Podcast.
☘️ Celtics -2.5 Games (+190; Caesars)
I’ve started calling this bet “old reliable,” and I’m going right back to the well in the NBA Finals. If the Celtics live up to their talent level, this series shouldn’t be particularly close.
If you don’t want to back the Celtics, I get it. This team has been to the Eastern Conference Finals in six of the past eight seasons, but they’ve yet to get over the hump. They’ve barely been tested this postseason, and they still haven’t looked all that impressive. They swept the Pacers, but most of that series was hotly contested.
Still — this isn’t the same Celtics’ squad.
They’re expected to get Kristaps Porzingis back in Game 1, and his impact cannot be understated. With Porzingis on the floor during the regular season and playoffs, the Celtics have outscored opponents by +11.3 points per 100 possessions. His return means fewer minutes for Al Horford and Sam Hauser, which makes this Celtics’ squad even stronger.
Their starting five gels perfectly. They’re all elite defensively, and they can all shoot the ball on offense. If you load up to stop Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown can take over. Whatever the Mavericks try to do to stop their offense — the greatest in NBA history in terms of points per 100 possessions — the Celtics will have the answer.
The Mavs have had a great run, but they’re simply not in Boston’s weight class. You could play the Celtics at -1.5 games (-110; Caesars), but I’m going with the more aggressive route. I think the most likely outcome is the Celtics in five games, so I’m playing the -2.5 games for the fourth straight series.
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⚾️ A full day of action on the diamond. Bets for Wednesday’s MLB slate.
❌ Another one bites the dust. Tucopita Marcano becomes the latest player banned for betting (unsuccessfully) on sports.
📉 The NRFI gawds. The Blue Jays have now gone scoreless in the first inning in 26 consecutive games.
👑 Another perimeter threat for King James? The Lakers are closing in on a deal with J.J. Redick… as their next head coach.
💰 Will CeeDee Lamb secure the bag next? According to these stats, the Cowboys will need to pony up soon.
😑 Yeah, maybe don’t do that. The local media in Miami didn’t take long to give Connor McDavid bulletin board material.
🤯 Another time traveler. This bettor has TWO four-way parlays that cover both teams in the NHL Finals.
🎬 Best sports movies. Who ya got? I’ll take Caddyshack +300, but Major League needs to be on this list.
The Memorial begins a three-week stretch on the PGA TOUR that will see many of the world’s top players compete against each other across two signature events and a major. With the US Open lurking, who do we trust to come to Muirfield Village and perform? Geoff Ulrich dives in with this week’s best bets…
🎯 Justin Thomas Outright (+3000; FanDuel)
Top 5 (+500; FanDuel)
I’ve stayed away from betting Justin Thomas for most of 2024, but this recent stretch of his makes him a good buyback option.
On top of producing a T5 finish at the signature event in Hilton Head and a T8 at the year’s second major, he’s shown far better consistency off the tee, gaining an average of 2.36 strokes OTT over his last three starts. Not many players are better with a mid-to-long iron in their hand than Thomas, so if he’s crushing it with his driver and finding more fairways than usual, he’s not a very hard sell for me at this course at his current price.
Thomas is also very familiar with this part of the USA, having grown up in nearby Kentucky. He’s won in Ohio before (2018 WGC Bridgestone in nearby Akron) and has shown good upside at this week’s venue, losing in a playoff at Muirfield in 2020 at the Workday Championship – a makeshift event the PGA created thanks to the 2020 Covid epidemic.
Thomas has typically been good for at least one win a season, so at +2500 or better, it still feels like we’re buying the dip in some respect. At an event that undoubtedly holds special meaning to him – given its connections to Tiger and Nicklaus – I’m happy to add him at these levels in the outright and top five markets.
🚀 Tommy Fleetwood Outright (+4000; FanDuel)
Top 5 (+600; FanDuel)
Top 10 (+230; FanDuel)
Fleetwood missed out on another decent opportunity to grab his first PGA win last week up in Canada, thanks in large part to a nightmarish start in the final round. He’s lacking in course experience, having only played Muirfield twice before (in 2015 and 2017 — both missed cuts), but has become a much more complete player later in his career.
Additionally, while you can poke holes in his T21 finish from last week, it’s hard to deny the upside he showed at Hamiton with his irons, where he gained a season-high 5.5 strokes on approach. That mark was the fourth-best of his career in that category, which bodes well for his chances this week around Memorial’s smaller greens.
Fleetwood went off as low as +1600 last week, and while that number may have been too short, there is certainly an argument that his prices this week are equally overreactive; he’s set at nearly 2.5x the odds at many shops. Either way, I’m happy to have him on board as an outright this week and like his chances of at least paying off for a place in the top 10 or top five markets.
