Bets from the Group Chat: Wild Card Weekend. Ladder up an Eagle.
Geoff Ulrich shares some of the Fantasy Life team’s favorite targets for wild card weekend, including a same-game parlay, ladder bets, and bets from the Bet Tracker.
The group chat three-way parlay record moved to 5-9 last week. We still went 2-1 on our picks in Week 18, but the Justin Fields over on pass attempts didn’t come anywhere near hitting (my bad!). We did manage an under on the Falcons' team total and the Michigan -4.5 bet hit easily (shout out to Matt LaMarca and Mark Drumheller for coming through with some awesome plays).
Even with the loss, we’re still up +14.68 units overall since this started (assuming one unit bet per parlay).
After going 2-1 on individual plays again last week, we are also now at 29-12-1 on the individual props and bets posted in this section for the year (pretty good!).
- Week 6 recap: +543 ✅
- Week 7 recap: +721 ❌
- Week 8 recap: +666 ❌
- Week 9 recap: +549 ✅
- Week 10 recap: +647 ✅
- Week 11 recap: +560 ❌
- Thanksgiving recap: +522 ❌
- Week 12 recap: +413 ✅
- Week 13 recap: +593 ❌
- Week 14 recap: +508 ❌
- Week 15 recap: +216 ✅
- Week 16 recap: +515 ❌
- Week 17 recap: +529 ❌
- Week 18 recap: +595 ❌
As always, we have three separate plays from three different sources for our parlay below (you can play them separately, or put them all together and ride the three-way parlay).
If parlays aren’t your thing, we also have the weekly ladder targets as well. Good luck!
Wild Card Weekend (Same Game) Parlay
The group has been in unison with how to approach this Rams/Lions game all week. So with that in mind, I made the group parlay into an SGP ticket for Super Wild Card Week. All these plays are also logged separately in our FREE bet tracker on Fantasy Life as well.
Mark Drumheller likes: Rams +3.5 (Same game parlay, BetMGM)
- Play to: +3.0 (-115)
I like the Rams this week to potentially pull off the upset. As Mark explains, the matchup with the Rams' passing game vs. the Lions' secondary isn’t fair.
“Since Week 11, the Rams have the 4th best offense (EPA/play & success rate). Detroit's secondary grades out 29th via PFF. Should be a shootout, but LA's defense is more likely to get key stops with Donald & Turner crashing the interior of the pocket.”
Matt LaMarca likes: Rams at Lions over 51.5 (Same game parlay, BetMGM)
- Play to: 51.5 (-115)
Much like the first leg of our same-game parlay, I am in complete agreement with the idea of taking the over in this game. From LaMarca himself in our FREE bet tracker:
“Both of these teams have fantastic offenses and questionable defenses, and this number is steadily on the rise. This game being played indoors also mitigates some of the typical offensive concerns you see during the postseason.”
Geoff Ulrich likes: Josh Reynolds 25+ receiving yards (Same game parlay, BetMGM)
- Projection: 38.8
- Play to: 27.5 (-110)
Lions WR Kalif Raymond is out and TE Sam LaPorta (knee - questionable) may not be 100%—if he even plays.
Reynolds had five games with 50 yards or more receiving in his first six starts of 2023 (when Jameson Williams was suspended). In those six starts, he averaged 56.8 receiving yards and 4.5 targets per game. The Rams' secondary has also allowed the 10th most receiving yards to opposing WRs.
Putting it all together: +400, BetMGM SGP
- Rams at Lions over 51.5
- Rams +3.5
- Josh Reynolds 25+ rec yards
You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get $158 in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below!
Premium
Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.
Wild Card Weekend Ladder Plays
Ladder bets are where you spread your unit allocation over different milestones.
The idea is to access bigger payouts while maintaining some exposure to the higher probability outcome lines as well.
The wild card weekend ladder targets are below.
Dallas Goedert receiving yards - Eagles (BetMGM)
- 75+ rec yards (+260)
- 70+ rec yards + anytime TD (+650)
- 100+ rec yards (+650)
Goedert is setting up to be a very key player in this game. AJ Brown is out and DeVonta Smith (ankle), while he did practice this week, likely isn’t 100%. With no Brown, the Buccaneers' secondary will almost certainly focus their attention on limiting Smith in this game (who burned them for a long TD back in Week 4) and likely be happy with giving up a few soft yards to Goedert as a trade-off.
Tampa Bay also allowed the second-most fantasy points and the second-most receiving yards to opposing TEs this season. In Week 17, the Bucs gave up an astounding 8 receptions and 90 yards to lightly used Juwan Johnson, and that was on the heels of them ceding 95 yards (on 10 catches) to Evan Engram in Week 16.
Goedert is also just a solid open-field receiver to begin with. He averaged over 12.0 yards per reception in 2021 and 2022 and has averaged 6.0 catches and 59 yards over his last two full games. While his odds have shortened a little (on the Brown news) the situation still suggests there is a great chance for Goedert to approach his ceiling in this matchup, making his alternate totals (and same game TD parlays) super appealing lines to chase this week.
Ladder Bet: Demarcus Robinson receiving yards - Rams (bet365)
- 50+ yards +125
- 75+ yards +375
- 100+ yards +1100
Robinson’s usage has skyrocketed as the season has progressed. He’s posted target shares of 27%, 19%, 10%, and 29% over his final four games of the year. That’s led to some monster outings, and the former Chief finished the season with four TDs in his final five games and averaged 87 yards receiving over his last two starts.
Despite that jump in production, we can still get some very solid odds to chase another big game from Robinson this week. The Lions have ceded the third-most receiving yards to opposing WRs this season and have allowed multiple WRs to go for 55+ receiving yards against them in four straight games.
While he’s yet to eclipse the 100-yard barrier on the season, Robinson’s 14.3 yard per catch metric and the Lions' own inefficiencies in the secondary suggest that if there were ever a spot to chase Robinson breeching that milestone, this would be it. He’s a solid ladder target for Sunday’s Wild Card slate and one to think about including in a same game parlay build for this game.
You can tail the Robinson ladder bet at bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below and place your first bet of just $1!
Premium
Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.
Wild Card Weekend Bets from the Bet Tracker
Each week, the Betting Life crew puts their favorite bets and plays they have personally made for the week inside our FREE bet tracker for everyone to follow. I highlighted a few of my (our) favorites just to give you a small taste.
Matthew Freedman likes: Buccaneers +3.0 (-120, bet365)
- My Projection: +1.4
- Cutoff: +3.0 (-120)
Trying to catch a falling knife like the Eagles in this spot seems a dicey proposition. Philadelphia enters this game without A.J. Brown and with Jalen Hurts (finger) having barely practiced this week.
The Buccaneers' defense has improved down the stretch and enter this game healthy and ranked 14th in overall DVOA. With Brown out, they’ve also caught a massive break and will be able to better focus their efforts on stopping the run, and DeVonta Smith. The Bucs have also won five of their last six games and were 11-6 ATS for the regular season.
Getting a FG with this game being played in Tampa and the Eagles dealing with so much adversity seems like the side to be on.
If you want more bets, don’t forget to check out Freedman’s Week 18 prop article where he mentions this play (and others).
Geoff Ulrich likes: Jordan Love over 7.5 rush yards (-110, BetMGM)
- Projection: 13.8
- Play to: -9.5 (-115)
Shout out to our own Ian Hartitz who mentioned this one on this week's Betting Life prop pod. Love doesn’t carry the ball much, but that doesn’t mean he’s not a mobile QB. The Packers' starter has averaged 14.5 yards rushing per game this year and averaged 4.9 yards per attempt.
He’s also got a 7% scramble rate (via the Fantasy Life Utilization Report) and faces a pass rush in the Cowboys that tends to induce more scrambling from opposing QBs (QBs facing the Cowboys have averaged 4.64 carries per game, the 9th most in the league).
You can tail the Love prop at BetMGM, where you can get $158 in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below and place your first bet of just $5!
Premium
Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.
