Betting Advantages Before the 2025 NFL Schedule Release

In today's Betting Life Newsletter:

The sports calendar is heating up. Not figuratively, but literally. We’ve officially made it into May, which means the weather outside is improving. If I listen closely, I think I can hear my golf clubs calling me.

However, it is one of the quieter times of the year on the NFL calendar. The draft is now in the rearview mirror, and we’ve got a long way to go before the games start taking place in September.

Release the Hounds, Er, Schedule!

Fortunately, we have a few checkpoints to keep us engaged along the way. One of the biggest will occur next Wednesday when we get the official NFL schedule release. One of my favorite exercises each year is diving into who will play when and using that info to identify some value in the betting market.

For example, looking at the schedule last year put me on to the Eagles winning the NFC East pretty early. You could get them at +125 to win the division when the schedules were first released, but that number was long gone by the time we got to kickoff.

While the official schedule release definitely matters—things like rest and travel advantages can add up—we do already know who each team will play this season. That means we still have the opportunity to look at the betting market before the schedule is officially released.

Today, I want to try to get ahead of the May 14 new information. Who are some teams that the public could catch on to once the schedules become official?

Also, we’re nearing the quarter pole on the MLB calendar. With nearly 40 games for each team under our belts, do any values stand out in the futures market?

Let’s dive in.

SCHEDULE RELEASE PREDICTIONS

What’s going on around the NFL and more with our merry band of sports nerds!

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🏀 It wasn’t quite Reggie Miller vs. the Knicks, but the Pacers pulled off quite the heist to steal Game 2 vs. the Cavaliers.

⚾ We’re witnessing greatness. Aaron Judge could be the best right-handed batter of the past 100 years. Not hyperbole.

New York Giants Under 5.5 Wins (-145; BetMGM)

It is not a good time to be a Giants’ fan. Sure, they landed a potential new QB in Jaxson Dart, and they added one of the premier defensive prospects in the draft in Abdul Carter. They also have an exciting young pass catcher in Malik Nabers, so they have a few things to get excited about.

Unfortunately, I doubt that’s going to lead to much success on the field in 2025.

On paper, the Giants are projected to have the toughest schedule in the league next season (based on Vegas win totals). That starts with their own division, which features two playoff teams from last season in the Eagles and Commanders. Neither team figures to be much worse next season, while it’s possible the Commanders take another step forward. The Cowboys also won 12 games in three straight seasons before taking a step back last year, and with a healthy Dak Prescott, they could possibly make a return to prominence.

It doesn’t get easier from there. They’ll also have to face the NFC North—arguably the toughest division in football—as well as the AFC West. Both divisions got three squads into the playoffs last year.

Things are rounded out with matchups against the 49ers, Patriots, and Saints. San Francisco should be better by default this season if it can stay healthier, while the Patriots are a team on the rise. The Saints stand out as the most “winnable” game on their schedule, but that game is slated to be played in New Orleans.

Add it all up, and I tentatively expect the Giants to be underdogs in 17 games next season. Even their matchups against the Raiders and Bears are on the road, so the last-place teams in the AFC West and NFC North will get the advantage there.

I’m locking this under in before the schedule release. Once people see the type of gauntlet that the Giants have to run completely laid out on paper, they’re going to be lining up to bet against them. If they don’t get a favorable draw from a rest standpoint, things could get very ugly.

Minnesota Vikings Under 8.5 Wins (+130; BetMGM)

Unlike the Giants, the Vikings are coming off a very successful campaign. They won 14 games, and they were just one win away from securing the best record in the NFC. Kevin O’Connell has cemented his status as one of the best coaches in the game, particularly when it comes to the quarterback position.

O’Connell managed to coax the best out of Sam Darnold last year, and now he’ll be tasked with doing the same with J.J. McCarthy. That could be easier said than done.

While Darnold was far from a world-beater, he at least had plenty of NFL reps under his belt. McCarthy has yet to see a real snap of NFL action. Maybe O’Connell and Justin Jefferson can bring the best out of him, but it might still be years away. McCarthy was not asked to do much in college, and despite his draft pedigree, he was a pretty polarizing prospect.

Making matters worse, McCarthy is going to have to navigate a bear of a schedule. The Vikings are expected to have one of the five-toughest schedules based on opponent win totals. They face only five teams with a Vegas win total currently below 8.5—the Falcons, Seahawks, Cowboys, Browns, and Giants—and four of them will come on the road. They have nine games against teams with a win total of at least 9.5, so they don’t have a ton of margin for error.

Rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle right out of the gates, so it will be interesting to see who the Vikings draw early. If they have some of their easier matchups at the beginning of the season, it could end up being a disaster. Regardless, the uncertainty with McCarthy points me toward the under, especially at +130.

PROJECTIONS FOR DART, MCCARTHY, AND EVERYONE ELSE IN 2025

Max Fried AL Cy Young (+500; Caesars)

Speaking of guys flying up the leaderboard, Max Fried’s start to his Yankee tenure couldn’t be going much better. He pitched to a sparkling 1.01 ERA across his first seven starts, and he made his eighth start of the year on Wednesday. He was brilliant once again vs. the Padres, pitching seven innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts.

Some of Fried’s advanced metrics aren’t quite as impressive, but he’s leading the AL in both wins and ERA. He’s not really a threat for the Triple Crown like Tarik Skubal was last season—he’s not the same caliber of strikeout pitcher—but something like 20 wins with a sub-2.00 ERA? That’s definitely in play.

As much as we live in an “advanced stats” age for baseball, things like ERA and wins still matter. They might not matter quite as much as they did 20 years ago, but it’s going to be tough to turn a blind eye to that type of production.

Fried is currently fourth on the leaderboard, trailing Skubal, Garrett Crochet, and Hunter Brown. Those three are also off to fantastic starts this season, but none of them has the benefit of pitching for the Yankees. Pitching for the pinstripes brings plenty of media attention, so Fried is someone I’m looking to jump on board with.

Bubba Chandler NL Rookie of the Year (+700; Caesars)

A talented Pirates’ starter getting a May callup and pitching his way to the NL Rookie of the Year: where have I heard that before? Bubba Chandler isn’t exactly Paul Skenes, but don’t be surprised if he follows a similar trajectory to his superstar teammate.

Chandler is only 22 years old, but he has nothing left to prove at the minor league level. He’s absolutely torched Triple-A hitters this season, pitching to a 12.79 K/9, 1.42 ERA, and 2.24 FIP. He entered the season as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, and he’s done absolutely nothing to diminish that optimism.

The only real question is when will the Pirates promote him to the big league roster? I’m betting on sooner rather than later. Skenes made his MLB debut on May 11 last season, and it should shock no one if they have a similar timeline in mind for Chandler.

Chandler started on Wednesday, and I’m hoping that will be his final start in Indianapolis. Once he’s in the black and gold, expect his Rookie of the Year price to drop precipitously. No one in the NFL is running away with the award, so the coast is clear for him to fly up the leaderboard.

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