Big Bats, Best Bets Help MLB 2025 Start With A Bang: Aaron Judge Granding Opening

In today's Betting Life Newsletter:

Fire Torpedoes! Had someone told me the operative word for the 2025 season would be torpedo, I wouldn’t know exactly what to make of it. If anything, I’d likely be terrified—I’ve watched Manfred in action long enough to think maybe he went in his bag of tricks to finally slaughter the game’s popularity for good.

Hey, you never know …

Luckily for us, that wasn't the case (especially for Yankees fans). The buzz surrounding our national pastime is now revolving around the torpedo bat—the newest innovation from Aaron Leanhardt, a former Michigan physics professor and MIT PhD.

Who needs Juan Soto when you can just mash dingers with a juggling pin, amirite?

Before you run off to share this photo above, it is NOT real (here’s the real one). In fact, I actually think the whole torpedo bat thing’s a little overblown. Besides other players/teams using it, the Yankees happened to be playing a day game at home during an especially windy day against the habitual fly-ball machine Nestor Cortes—in other words, the perfect storm for longballs.

Contrary to the wild social media overreaction, Aaron Judge, who’s hit four homers in just 14 PA and getting the most attention, doesn’t even use it. When asked why he hasn't tried a torpedo bat, the Bronx Bombers’ big bopper responded, “What I’ve done the past couple of seasons speaks for itself.” Hard to argue with the captain on that one.

🗒️ 🗒️ 🗒️ A Few Notes! 🗒️ 🗒️ 🗒️

💰 All of our MLB preseason betting takes and newsletters are archived here, along with my correlating futures plays. The season is still young!

📈 I like what Sam Wallace did here on the fantasy football side with his series on “what’s my dynasty pick worth”? He has some ideas if you want to trade away that 3rd rounder for … Keaton Mitchell?

🏈 For the latest in our NFL Draft coverage (we’re in APRIL!! It’s this month!!) click right here … 👇🏼👇🏼👇🏼

2025 NFL DRAFT HUB

What’s going on the NFL and more with our merry band of sports nerds!

🏈 Over on the Fantasy Life Newsletter side of things, Pete takes a look at some weird developing situations (Daniel Jones, Jaylen Warren, etc)

💸 I suggest checking out Freedman’s NFL Draft betting takes. Shedeur is +350 to go No. 2!

🔮 Freedman and Thor have both produced NFL Mock Drafts in the past few days.

🐻 Lauren Betts and Paige Bueckers are facing off in the Final Four next week. Betts is a 6-foot-7 FORCE who the world is just getting to know now.

🎮 This Billy Mitchell/Karl Jobst ruling (summary here) has me wanting to re-watch one of the greatest movies of all-time, King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters.

🧠 Are you ready to go deep? Thor’s offensive tackle rankings are live.

🕰️ Has anyone gotten a Nintendo Alarmo? I go back and forth on it. $100 alarm clock vs. $100 endless fun for the kids. Reply to this email (I think you can do that!) and let me know!

⚾💥MLB Home Run Explosion—Going, Going, Gone!💥⚾

Having a handle on market directionality from a broad perspective always helps in betting MLB. Given the wide spread in stadium disparity, there may not be a more impactful macro element to wagering on any professional sport.

Think about how profitable being quick to recognize the super-happy fun ball was for bettors in 2019. Or, conversely, in 2022, picking up on the wet mooshball that wouldn’t carry out, even during the dog days of summer. I know the MLB world’s aflame with conspiracy theories of misshapen bats and juiced balls … but I’m not buying it.

Yes, some of what we’ve seen is definitely due to more efficient equipment and training techniques, but there’s also the stylistic element of pulling elevated batted-ball events. It’s nerdy and not as much fun of an answer, but still true.

Boring as it is, the best way to get to the bottom of these things is not to verbalize our emotions in ALL CAPS on Twitter (I know, crazy thought)—but to take a centered and rational look at the historicals.

As you can see in the image above, which covers the league-wide Home Run-to-Flyball rate over two decades, while we are trending up over time, this is far from anomalous. We also don’t know what changes, if any, we’ll see when the weather warms. Like 2022, there’s no guarantee that suddenly every popup finds the outfield bleachers.

Bottom line is this—it’s still too early for any overreactions in either direction. Just keep your head on a swivel and make sure to bookmark these weekly Tuesday Betting Life newsletters as we track this stuff closely for actionable determinations.

AARON JUDGE’S ODDS TO GO YARD TODAY

⚾🧮MLB Betting Trends—The Good, The Fun, And The Ugly🧮⚾

In my never-ending attempt to make this newsletter a must-read every Tuesday, I thought I could try something different. The MLB season moves so fast, it’s easy to lose the forest for the trees, so maybe a weekly trend check is in order.

Aside from the sheer number of games making following all the action so difficult, a lot of context gets lost in the sauce due to public narratives—something this chart will help to add some perspective to.

From left to right, it’s over record, average run differential, record against the over, and average margin above/below the game total.

THE GOOD: LAD + SD

Only the Dodgers and Padres remain undefeated, covering up almost everyone they face on the run line. That said, it’s very difficult to bet the total either way—overs fall short due to pitching so well, and unders are always a challenge because of how talented the lineups are. As a pure baseball fan, I can’t wait for these divisional rivals to lock horns

THE FUN: MIL + DET

Despite a combined 1-7 overall record, the Brewers and Tigers’ unique combination of good hitting plus questionable pitching makes them the league’s most interesting over bets—perhaps even more so because public perception Is still relatively low on both lineups. Bettors should keep an eye peeled for any O/U 7.5s getting posted.

THE UGLY: COL + ATL

No one paying attention should be surprised to see the Colorado Paste Eaters leading the way in a race to the bottom … but the Braves? Atlanta’s not just off to an 0-5 start, Reynaldo Lopez is heading to the IL, and outfielder Jurickson Profar just got banged with an 80-game PED suspension. Yikes. Granted, the competition’s been stiff, but both of these teams have a team wRC+ of 40 or below, meaning they’re each +60% worse than league average—talk about ugly. Sure, Atlanta probably turns it around at some point, but I don’t bet on teams “being due.” Word to the wise—let them at least show you a pulse first before laying any hard-earned cash on them.

Bookmark the page below to keep it all live and in one place (it’s free!) ⏬ ⏬ ⏬

TODAY’S LIVE (CONSTANTLY UPDATED) MLB ODDS

🧮⚾Betting Research Center—MLBMA Algo™ Data⚾🧮

For anyone more deeply interested in daily MLB betting on a more granular level, I took the liberty of sharing my world-famous starting pitching sheets and MLB Moving Averages Algorithm results—hit me up anytime on X @JohnLaghezza with questions or comments!

April 1st SP Sheet

April 1st Implied Team Totals

Hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!

TODAY’S MLB TEAM TOTALS