Can Anthony Richardson Tame the Lions? Week 12 NFL Betting Primer
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, Anthony Richardson's and the Colts take a shot at the red-hot Lions, Week 12 NFL betting primer, NHL prop, and more.
In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
Your Early Week 12 Primer: Heading into Week 12 we have some injuries and key news to keep track of.
Iâm going to give you my quick, GeoffsNotes (like CliffsNotes, but mine) on a few of these situations and how I might be looking to play them, or profit from a betting perspective.
Donât forget, we put all our early-week bets into our FREE NFL Bet Tracker so make sure to check that out if youâre interested in getting in on any early lines before they move.
New York Giants (+5.0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Daniel Jones (benched); Mike Evans (questionable)
The Giants demoted Jones to third-string and named Tommy DeVito the starter. Evans also returned to practice for the Buccaneers, although no word has been given on his status for Week 12 yet.
Verdict: I donât know that I need or want to bet the Giants at +5.0, but if the line gets to 6.0 I might. The Buccaneers are dead last in Success Rate vs. the pass, so DeVito alt lines (along with gabagool) will be on the prop menu when they are released.
Green Bay Packers (-2.0) vs. San Francisco 49ers: Nick Bosa (oblique, hipâquestionable); George Kittle (hamstringâquestionable); Jaire Alexander (kneeâquestionable)
The 49ers have had to deal with injuries to key players all season, and with Bosa leaving last weekâs game early, it looks like they may be without him in this do-or-die Week 12 matchup with Green Bay.
Verdict: I already bet Green Bay on the moneyline and put it in our Free NFL Bet Tracker on Sunday. If the Packers get back Alexander, who sounds likely to play, the spread may close at 3.0.
Kansas City Chiefs (+11.5) at Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young (named starter); Jonathon Brooks (likely to play); Isiah Pacheco (questionable)
The Panthers announced Bryce Young will start Week 12 vs. the Chiefs and that rookie RB Jonathon Brooks is likely to play. The Chiefs have Isiah Pacheco set to return from IR this week, but no word yet on whether heâll play in this game.
Verdict: Mahomes and the Chiefs are 6-2-1 off a loss since 2022. This spread has already risen from 10.0 to 11.0 in spots and will likely rise throughout the week. If you want the Chiefs, grab them now.
Donât forget, we also have weekly Player Projections and a Prop Finder Tool, to help you navigate all of this injury madness and gain an edge in Week 12.
Both are available (along with a host of other great tools) with a FantasyLife+ subscription.
What else is in todayâs newsletter?
- Early Week NFL Bet: Can Anthony Richardson tame the Lions?
- NHL Prop Drop: The Wildâs big line is in a smash spot tonight
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Week 12 NFLâThe Colts can keep pace
by Geoff Ulrich
Entering Week 12 the top four against-the-spread records belong to the following four teams:
- Steelers 8-2
- Lions 8-2
- Colts 8-3
- Broncos 8-3
Of the four, the Colts are the only team with an overall losing record (5 wins, 6 losses) but have lost only one game by more than 8 points all season (a 30-20 loss to the 9-2 Bills in Week 10). Interestingly enough, three of the Coltsâ six losses also came in the four games where Joe Flacco was the starting QBâwith Flacco also going 2-2 ATS in those four games.
That means that in games where Anthony Richardson has been the starter this season, the Colts have gone 6-1 ATS, with their only failed cover coming in Week 2 on the road against Green Bay. At home, Richardson is a perfect 4-0 ATS in games heâs started this season.
The Bet: Colts +8.0 (-110; BetMGM)
Can Richardson keep it rolling?
In case you lost power last week (or just wanted to avoid watching the Jets again), Richardson returned as the starter in Week 11âafter a two-week benchingâand promptly delivered his most complete game as a pro.
Richardson wasnât just efficient in the passing game either, where he averaged 9.06 yards per attempt and completed 66% of his passes, a season-high. He was an absolute bully in the run game, especially around the goal line where he made Jetsâ defenders look like grade schoolers on both of his TD jaunts.
With Jonathan Taylor also there to keep teams honest, the Coltsâ offense should continue terrorizing opposing defenses in the red zone for the rest of the season and have a great chance at improving on their current 21.5 ppg (19th in the league) average.
Will any of this matter against the Lions?
The Lions are the class of the league right now. On top of being 8-2 ATS and 9-1 overall, theyâre now the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl at most sportsbooks, and as low as +325 to win it all.
That doesnât mean this week isnât a bit of a trouble spot for them. Theyâre on the road and lost linebacker Alex Anzalone for 6-8 weeks with a broken arm against Jacksonville. Itâs a big injury, as Anzalone was in the midst of another solid season and was second on the team with 40 tackles
On the flip side, the Colts have been getting healthier on defense. DL DeForest Bucknerâs return a few weeks ago has freed up the rest of the defense, which has produced multiple sacks in four straight gamesâincluding 3 last week. While they allow yards, the Colts have also been very opportunistic and enter Week 12 ranked seventh in turnovers with 17.
After Detroit dropped 52 against Jacksonville, weâve seen a steady diet of Lions money come in. Still, the spread hasnât moved much from its +7.5 opening line, with the odd +8.0 (-110) popping up here and there on Monday.
With the Lions down another key defensive piece and being a very popular road favorite this week, Iâm happy to take that extra 0.5 and roll with Richardson in Week 12.
Even if the Colts canât stop Detroit from scoring, the renewed Colts offense going up against this now-weakened Lions defense should have a great shot at keeping things close enough to bag us a cover.
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
đ The Best of the Best: Get Dwain McFarlandâs Industry-Leading Utilization Report before you hit Week 12.
đ MNFâs first TD scorer was Nico Collins ⌠but it was actually Joe Mixon. Collins' first TD bettors, avert your eyes!
đ Alexander Ovechkin is on absolute fire. Five Goals in two games and 14 goals in 18 games. (Reminder, we bet him at +1000 to get 40+ this year).
đ Get your early Week 13 MACtion Bets on with Thor Nystromâs preview. Kent State? In this economy!?
đ Jerryworld is not a fun place right meow for the Cowboys. Maybe there is something to this glaring-light issue?
NHL Prop DropâExpect Eriksson Ek to deliver
by Geoff Ulrich
The Minnesota Wild have been dealing with some injuries of late, but are expected to have their first-line center Joel Eriksson Ek back in the lineup tonight when they take on the St. Louis Blues at 8 p.m. ET. The better news for Minnesota fans and bettors is that with Eriksson Ek returning, the Wild are also expected to reunite him with wingers Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy, to form a top trio that was uber-productive for them last season.
Via Moneypuck, in 2023-24, when on the ice together at even strength they ranked 7th in expected goals per 60 minutes (3.63) and 6th in actual goals per 60 minutes (4.64).
Tonight they take on the Blues, who have allowed the fourth-most quality scoring chances against this season and sixth-most high-danger chances.
The Bets:
Joel Eriksson Ek over 0.5 points (-125; bet365)
SGP: Joel Eriksson Ek o0.5 assists + Wild -1.5 (+425; bet365)
The Wild are in a good spot tomorrow, and I love the fact they are reuniting a line that kickstarted them last season after the All-Star break. We could play any number of variations of bets on that first line (anytime goal, multiple points, etc.), but the most obvious to me is to take Eriksson Ek to get on the stat sheet with a point.
The over on 0.5 points for Eriksson Ek is still sitting at -125 on bet365, while the overs on Kaprizov and Boldy are at -450 and -210. Even with Eriksson Ek coming in off an injury thatâs too big a gap given the three are likely to play most of the game together.
If you want more upside, I also donât mind looking into some alternative markets like assists for Eriksson Ek. He averaged 0.44 assists per game last season but his current odds to land one assist tomorrow sit at around 35% implied odds, or +185 (bet365).
Pairing that with either a goal by Boldy or Kaprizov, and/or the Wild puck line, will get you well into the +400 range on an SGP, and makes for a good way to get exposure to the upside of this line tomorrow.
Looking for more NHL action this season? Check out our free NHL Futures Betting Odds below.
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