Dak to the Futures? Betting Market That is
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues, injuries impact this week's games, the NFL futures market, an NHL prop, and more.
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:
Your Early Week 9 Primer: We’re almost halfway through the season, and things are moving fast and furious (or hot and heavy as Elaine Benes would say).
Heading into Week 9 we have several games where injury news or trades—the deadline is next Tuesday, Nov. 5—could impact the current lines.
I’m going to give you my quick, GeoffsNotes (like CliffsNotes, but mine) on the games where injury news or player movement could have a big impact and how I might be looking to play said games from a betting perspective.
Packers (+3.5) vs. Lions: Jordan Love (groin—questionable)
The look-ahead line on this game was Packers -1.5, but with the injury to Jordan Love last week the line ballooned as high as Packers +4.5 on Sunday. It then dropped back down to Packers +3.5 after a positive update on Love’s health. If Love does get cleared, this number will likely move toward Green Bay again.
Verdict: Green Bay +3.5. I'll take my chances that Love can be close to 100% by Sunday as long as this spread is above +3.0.
Panthers (+7.0) vs. Saints: Andy Dalton (Thumb—questionable); Derek Carr (oblique—questionable)
This line moved past 6.5 in a hurry when it was announced that Carr will be practicing, and has a decent shot at starting this week. Andy Dalton’s status is still very up in the air and there have also been rumors that Diontae Johnson could be moved. If Dalton doesn’t practice, or Johnson gets moved, this could balloon past 8.0.
Verdict: Wait for Dalton to get cleared and take the Panthers at +7.5 or higher. If Dalton sits, or Johnson gets traded, PASS.
Titans (-3.5) vs. Patriots: Drake Maye (Concussion—questionable); Will Levis (Shoulder—questionable)
The Titans seem optimistic about getting Will Levis back this week, while Drake Maye could be hard-pressed to make it back in time for Sunday. Positive news on Maye moving through concussion protocol could push this below 3.0.
Verdict: If Levis starts, wait for Titans -3.0 or better. If Rudolph starts, PASS. I don’t mind fading New England on the road, coming off an emotional win.
For a full purview of where we stand on all of the Week 9 action, don’t forget to check out our Game Model Tool, which projects the spread and total for every single NFL game.
Our Game Models are available (along with a host of other great tools) with a FantasyLife+ subscription.
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NFL Futures—Dak to the Futures
by Geoff Ulrich
With just over half the season left, now is a great time to look back into the futures markets and see if there are any players going under the radar. While most sportsbooks don’t allow you to bet in-season on season-long player totals we can still look at the “stat-leader markets” which were updated again after Week 8 was completed.
Here are three players, and three different bets (in three different markets), I’m looking at making going into Week 9.
Dak Prescott Most Passing Yards (+900; DraftKings)
Market Leader: Geno Smith 2,197 yards (+320; DraftKings)
This one makes a lot of sense to me. Prescott has a game in hand over the market leader, Smith, and only trails him by 352 yards. The Cowboys lead the league in passing attempts per game at 39.4, are 25th in success rate per rush, and last in the league in yards per carry (3.4) as a team.
Prescott also has the benefit of playing his home games in a dome during November and December, while Smith will be playing his outdoors in the cold, rainy Northwest. If you take away a Week 15 meeting against the Panthers (in Carolina, where the weather may not be a factor, even in December), Prescott only has two outdoor games remaining.
Both of these QBs (Prescott and Smith) should continue to produce a ton of yards the rest of the way. However, with Prescott having the schedule advantage and no running game to eat into his attempts, he looks like a solid value sitting with the fifth-longest odds in this market at +900.
Jordan Love Most Passing TDs (+1500; DraftKings)
Market Leader: Baker Mayfield (+250; DraftKings)
Right now, Baker Mayfield leads the league with 21 passing TDs. The Tampa Bay defense has imploded over the last few weeks, which has helped Mayfield’s stats, as he’s thrown 10 of his 21 TDs over his last three starts—with multiple of those coming in garbage time. However, there are some red flags with Mayfield that make him a fadeable market leader.
Mayfield lost his leading receiver for the season last week, Chris Godwin, and won’t have perennial TD magnet Mike Evans back for at least two games, and potentially longer. TDs are an extremely volatile stat, so I don’t mind going further back in this category and looking at Jordan Love, whose odds got pushed up to +1500, after he suffered a groin injury against the Jaguars.
Despite playing two fewer games than Mayfield, Love has 15 TDs on the season and has his full complement of receivers to work with. Love’s injury was deemed minor, and assuming he does play Week 9, will be taking on a Detroit secondary that he dropped 3 TDs against in Week 12 of last season.
With Mayfield playing against the notoriously tight Chiefs, this looks like a great time to grab a piece of Love and hope he can close the gap in Week 9.
Ja’Marr Chase Most Receiving TDs (+400; DraftKings)
Market Leader: Ja’Marr Chase (+400; DraftKings)
Despite being the market leader, Chase’s price doesn’t seem like it’s baked in the fact he’s leading this category with 7 TDs through eight weeks—or the fact he’s in a great spot to keep producing the rest of the way.
The Bengals’ defense remains problematic, as they’re just 27th in EPA play this season and allowed an ugly 37 points last week against the Eagles. That should keep the Bengals throwing late into the games for a majority of their remaining starts. With Joe Burrow (4th in EPA per play) also at the top of his game, and Tee Higgins banged up again, Chase isn’t a name I expect to slow down anytime soon.
As much as we like looking for big numbers in these markets, Chase is as small as +260 in this category at other books, making the +400 and 20% implied odds available on DraftKings look like a solid bit of value.
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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
👀 The Best of the Best: Get Dwain McFarland’s Industry-Leading Utilization Report before you hit Week 9.
🤬 The Bears. That’s it, that’s the tweet. LaMarca and Ulrich go through the worst beats of Week 8, a slate that had one historically insane ending.
🤔 How was this not a catch?! George Pickens anytime TD bettors, cover your eyes (and step away from the sharp objects)!
⬆️ Who’s moved up and down? Thor Nystrom reveals his College Football Power Rankings ahead of Week 10.
⚾ Legacy run: Freddie Freeman homers in his fifth straight World Series game. Wanna bet he makes it six in a row?
NHL Prop Drop—Fiala Should Feast in San Jose
by Geoff Ulrich
Stop me if you’ve heard this one. The San Jose Sharks are bad. They’re maybe not quite as bad as they were last season, but they’re not good and are still easily a bottom-5 team. On top of allowing 4.2 goals against (3rd worst in the league) and the fifth-most high-danger scoring chances this season, they’ve also allowed the fourth-most shots against per game, and the fifth-most shots allowed to left-wingers.
Enter Kings left-winger Kevin Fiala, who should be on a mission Tuesday after being benched in the Kings' last outing, a 3-2 win against Utah. Fiala‘s one-game benching was for taking a bad penalty, but he’s expected to be back in his usual top-6 role against the Sharks, a team he’s done well against in the past.
The Bet: Kevin Fiala Over 2.5 SOG (-125; bet365)
Fiala has 12 points over his last 10 games vs. the Sharks and has averaged 3.1 SOG vs them over that span. While this is a fantastic time to take a piece of Fiala’s anytime goal prop, or ladder bet him through four or five SOG, if you’re looking to keep it simple, there is some value in just going over on his regular SOG total, a bet I entered in our Free NHL Bet Tracker last night.
Fiala may have gone under this total over his last three games, but before that, he had a stretch where he went over 2.5 SOG in five straight starts. For the season, he’s averaging 3.0 shots per game and has hit the over (on 2.5 shots) at a 55% clip.
When you add in the fact he’ll be coming off an embarrassing benching and playing the Sharks, I’d be fine playing this one down to -130, which is likely where it will close (if not lower) before puck drop.
Looking for more NHL action this season? Check out our free NHL Futures Betting Odds below.
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