Finding Value In The 2025 NFL Rookie Class

In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Hims:

With the NFL Draft in the books, we can officially start the slow simmer until the regular season kicks off on Sept. 4.

There are still some important checkpoints to hit along the way—schedule release day (May 14), OTAs (late May/early June) start of training camps (late July), start of the preseason (early August)—but there are minimal opportunities for teams to improve their roster from this point on.

Looking Ahead To The Regular Season

That means we can officially start to dive into everything that comes along with the regular season: best ball, fantasy drafts, and especially betting.

We’ve already started to see some specific player-long prop bets creep up across the industry. John Laghezza dove into some early numbers that stood out to him, but I want to focus specifically on the rookies. Cam Ward, Ashton Jeanty, and Tetairoa McMillan were the first players drafted at their respective positions. What can we expect from them in Year 1?

Additionally, we’re nearing the conclusion of the first round of the NBA playoffs. A few teams have already punched their tickets, while a few more can join them on Friday. Is there any betting value to be found in the market currently?

Let’s dive in.

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What’s going on around the NFL and more with our merry band of sports nerds!

📺 Get the latest Fantasy Life YouTube shows and shorts right here.

🎓 More 2025 NFL Draft report cards. The Jaguars did well. The Chargers? Not so much.

⚔️ The Fantasy Life Knights of the Round Table are back. This time, they’re discussing rankings for the upcoming season.

🍁 You can always count on the Maple Leafs. Their underperformance in series-clinching contests is downright unfathomable.

🧤 Daulton Varsho won a Gold Glove last season. It’s safe to say that he’s off to a solid start in 2025.

🦌 Gary Trent Jr. giveth, Gary Trent Jr. taketh away. He was having an excellent performance in an elimination contest … until he wasn’t.

Journalism is the current favorite to win the Kentucky Derby. The Athletic will have some cool stuff ciming the next couple days.

Cam Ward 3500+ Passing Yards (+200; DraftKings)

Despite beginning his college career as a zero-star recruit, Cam Ward ended up being the No. 1 overall draft pick. That said, he still has plenty of doubters. Despite being the first QB drafted by a wide margin, he was considered far from an elite prospect. Our own Thor Nystrom had him behind Shedeur Sanders in this class, while others said he might have been the No. 6 or 7 QB off the board last season.

With that in mind, it’s not all that surprising that expectations are pretty low for Ward as a rookie. His current passing-yard prop is set at just 3200.5 on FanDuel, and you can get +200 on 3500+ passing yards on DraftKings.

Ward is going to enter a situation that is far from ideal as a rookie. The Titans were merely 27th in yards per game last season, and Will Levis and Mason Rudolph combined for just 3,317 passing yards last season.

Still, 3,500 is a pretty low bar to clear for an unquestioned starting NFL quarterback. There were 18 different QBs who got to at least 3,500 yards last season. Only two quarterbacks who started more than 12 games failed to get to that threshold: Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts. Love just narrowly missed out, getting to 3,389 yards in his 15 games, while Hurts is a bit of an outlier with his rushing ability.

Ultimately, this is a bet on health more than production. If Ward can play at least 15 games, I like his chances of getting to at least 3,500. Something like what Caleb Williams did last season seems well within the range of possibility.

Ashton Jeanty Over 1050.5 Rushing Yards (-114; FanDuel)

Ashton Jeanty is the prime example of a player you want to invest in early. This number only figures to increase as more people start transitioning their brains over to the 2025 NFL season.

Jeanty was the No. 6 pick in the draft, which is a testament to just how good of a prospect he is. He was dominant in college, and that should translate right away to the NFL level. In Dwain McFarland’s early projections, Jeanty’s 1,114 rushing yards is the fifth-highest mark at running back.

It’s not unheard of for a prospect the level of Jeanty to underperform as a rookie. We saw Bijan Robinson fail to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards in his first professional season despite playing all 17 games.

However, Robinson finished with just 214 carries in his first season, and he lost plenty of snaps to Tyler Allgeier. That shouldn’t be an issue for Jeanty. He has almost no competition for touches in the Raiders’ backfield, and we currently have him projected for a very healthy 250 carries in Year 1.

Even if Jeanty’s efficiency isn’t great, he could put together a strong season based on volume alone. Think something like Najee Harris’ rookie season with the Steelers. Ultimately, I’m getting my exposure to Jeanty early, including a sprinkle on 1,400+ rushing yards at +550 on DraftKings.

Tetairoa McMillan Under 825.5 Receiving Yards (-114; FanDuel)

Betting on overs is more fun, but the majority of your portfolio should be comprised of unders in the season-long betting market. Making exceptions for players like Jeanty and Ward is fine; both players’ props could definitely increase as the offseason progresses.

That said, McMillan is not someone I’m willing to make an exception for.

McMillan was the No. 8 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, but he is far from a slam-dunk future stud receiver. His prospect evaluation was a mixed bag, to say the least. While he has the size and pedigree of a No. 1 receiver, he doesn’t possess the athletic measurables you typically associate with a top-10 pick. Specifically, his 4.53 40-yard dash at his pro day puts him in just the 40th percentile at receiver.

McMillan also has to navigate some tough circumstances as a rookie. He’ll have to compete with Xavier Legette for targets, who was a first-round pick just last season. He went No. 32 overall as opposed to No. 8, but he should be further ahead in his development. He’s also a much better athlete than McMillan on paper.

Both players will also still be catching passes from Bryce Young. Young made some strides down the stretch last season, but he still has a lot to prove as an NFL quarterback. He’s averaged just 176.0 passing yards per game through his first two seasons.

That gives McMillan a few different ways to potentially go under. He could be the team’s No. 2 option behind Legette. He could play for one of the worst passing offenses in football. He could miss a handful of games. Ultimately, he’s the player in this trio I feel most comfortable fading.

MORE FUTURES BETS FOR THE 2025 ROOKIE CLASS

Indiana Pacers +2.5 Games vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (-140; FanDuel)

Could the Pacers give the Cavaliers a scare in the second round? It’s unlikely, but I think Indiana is ultimately being undervalued. Cleveland was super impressive in its first-round sweep, but the Cavs essentially had a bye against the Heat. Miami managed to creep into the Play-In Tournament as the 10th seed in the East, but it was a subpar squad after trading away Jimmy Butler.

Things will not be nearly as easy vs. the Pacers. They got off to a slow start this season, but they closed the year as one of the best teams in basketball. They went 34-14 over their final 48 games, ranking sixth in the league in Net Rating during that timeframe.

Notably, the Pacers went 3-1 vs. the Cavaliers during the regular season, including a perfect 2-0 in Cleveland. I wouldn’t read too much into that—their final two matchups came in April without Donovan Mitchell—but the larger sample suggests that the Pacers can hang in this series.

What the Pacers did in the first round was arguably even more impressive than what Cleveland accomplished. They were able to get past Giannis Antetokounmpo in just five games and thoroughly dominated most of that series.

Ultimately, getting Indiana +2.5 games stands out as an appealing option. That means that as long as this series makes it to Game 6, the bet will cash. We need the Pacers to win only two of the first five matchups for that to be the case, and they’ll get two of those games at home.

Oklahoma City Thunder to Win the Western Conference (-180; DraftKings)

If you’ve yet to get any exposure to OKC, this could be your final opportunity. While it’s not a foregone conclusion that the Thunder win the NBA Finals, I don’t see anyone in the West who is a real threat. The Clippers might be the most complete team on paper, but they’re currently down 2-3 to the Nuggets. Denver has the best player in the world_, but no depth. The Lakers and Warriors are aging and flawed, while the Timberwolves lack the same level of talent.

Quite simply, teams that are as good as OKC was during the regular season rarely lose before the Finals. Excluding the Thunder and Cavs, there have been 30 previous teams to finish with a winning percentage of at least 77.5%. Only eight of them have failed to reach the NBA Finals. One of the exceptions (2015-16 Spurs) lost to a team that was also on this list, which makes the sample look even stronger.

The Thunder didn’t just barely qualify for this list, either. They won 68 games, and their 82.9% winning percentage is tied for the sixth-best mark in history. The only five teams ahead of them all made it at least to the Finals, and four of them hoisted the Larry O’Brien Trophy.

Ultimately, -180 translates to an implied probability of 64.29%, and I think that is simply too low. I feel the same way about this team as I did about the Celtics last season and will be looking to ride them all the way to the Finals.

UPDATED ODDS FOR THE REST OF THE NBA PLAYOFFS