Huge Day on the Gridiron for NFL and CFB Betting Action

In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:

If you like football—and if you’re here, that’s likely the case—we have officially entered the most wonderful time of the year. Between the NFL and College Football, the schedule is nothing short of jam-packed over the next few weeks.

Seriously, just look at the next handful of days.

Saturday: two NFL games, three College Football Playoff games
Sunday: 11-game afternoon NFL slate, Sunday Night Football
Monday: Monday Night Football, two CFB bowl games
Tuesday: one CFB bowl game
Wednesday: two NFL games

I know that finding football on TV most days isn’t exactly difficult at this point, but the combination of volume and quality makes it hard to find a better stretch than that.

We got our first taste of the CFB playoffs on Friday with a matchup between Indiana and Notre Dame, and the other three first-round contests will take place today. Things get started with SMU at Penn State at Noon ET, followed by Clemson at Texas at 4 p.m. ET. The nightcap is potentially the most intriguing game of the trio, with Ohio State hosting Tennessee at 8 p.m. ET after a shell-shocked Buckeyes loss to Michigan in their final game of the regular season.

On the NFL side, we’ll have two Saturday matchups between four likely playoff squads in the AFC. The Chiefs will host the Texans to get things started at 1:30 p.m. ET, with Patrick Mahomes cleared for takeoff following last week’s ankle injury. After that, the Ravens will host the Steelers in an AFC North showdown, and the Ravens would move into a tie for first place in the division with a win.

Overall, it’s a phenomenal day to plant yourself on the couch, order in some grub, and maybe crack a beverage or two. ‘Tis the season.

WEEK 16 NFL PLAYER PROPS

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What else is in today’s newsletter?

Watercooler: Examining the most important NFL contract incentives
College Football Playoffs: Are the Buckeyes a sinking ship?
NFL Saturday: Target the Ravens vs. their biggest rivals.

AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

🚑 The best ability is availability. Ian Hartitz and Dwain McFarland dive into the NFL Week 16 injury report

🥳 Psyched for the first round of the College Football Playoff bracket? Thor, Coach Gene, and Froton get you ready at 10 a.m. ET.

💰 We’re entering "secure the bag SZN” in the NFL. Geoff Ulrich breaks down the contract incentives and milestones to know over the final three weeks.

🏈 Speaking of getting paid, who’s going to find paydirt in Week 16? Five anytime-touchdown scorer bets to consider.

❄️ The Bellofatto Build is back for Week 16. This week, she’s channeling the Year Without a Santa Claus.

⛏ The action doesn’t stop with the end of the NFL regular season. Registration is open for playoff Guillotine Leagues!

Casual Fan’s Guide to CFB Playoff Saturday

by Matt LaMarca

SMU at Penn State (-8.5)—53.5 total

None of the spreads on these games are particularly close, but that doesn’t take away from any of the excitement. That’s particularly true when it comes to Penn State. We know that the Nittany Lions have the talent to go toe-to-toe with anyone … but they never seem to come through when it matters. Their only two real tests this season were against Ohio State and Oregon, and the team failed both of them.

SMU is not quite in that class, but it is still a ranked opponent. Historically, Penn State is just 18-24 ATS against ranked opponents under head coach James Franklin.

However, the Nittany Lions are also favored in this spot, and very few coaches cover as a favorite quite like Franklin. He’s 69-43-4 at Penn State when laying points, so his squads typically win the games that they’re supposed to by a comfortable margin.

SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings is the wild card. Since he took over following a loss to BYU, the Mustangs have scored at least 28 points in 10 straight games. He nearly engineered a comeback in the ACC Championship game vs. Clemson, and he has as much natural talent as anyone. If he plays well—or Penn State can’t handle the pressure—they’re live to pull off an upset.

Clemson at Texas (-12.5)—50.5 total

The Orange Bowl won’t take place until the semifinals of the CFB playoffs, but we have a version of it on Saturday. Hopefully, the opposing fans don’t get confused by all the different shades of orange in the stands on Saturday.

Texas is the biggest favorite on this slate, but the Longhorns are the rare SEC team that has some questions about their schedule. They didn’t have to run nearly the same gauntlet as some of the other teams in the conference, and they lost to Georgia both times they played them. Their only ranked wins this season came against Michigan, Oklahoma, and Texas A&M, and none of those look particularly impressive in retrospect.

These playoff contests will be extremely important to Quinn Ewers. It has been a massively disappointing season for the Longhorns’ quarterback, who entered the year expected to be a high draft pick. Unless he puts together a strong string of performances in the playoffs, that seems unlikely to happen. Mel Kiper Jr. has already reported that Arch Manning will take over as the team’s starter next year, so if Ewers doesn’t enter the draft, he’s going to have to hit the transfer portal.

Texas still stands out as the better team by a pretty comfortable margin, and it should ultimately be able to take care of business. That said, it could be closer than expected.

Tennessee at Ohio State (-7.5)—46.5 total

This is the marquee game of the evening, so I’m not surprised it got the prime-time designation. Ohio State enters this contest as the favorite, and it is under a massive amount of pressure from its fan base. The expectation this season was basically “national title or bust,” and the loss to Michigan to end the regular season has put the fan base on edge. I would not want to be Ryan Day, who might have to get a police escort out of the stadium if they lose.

Their last game notwithstanding, the Buckeyes have been one of the best teams in the nation all year. They beat two playoff foes in Penn State and Indiana by comfortable margins, and their only loss before Michigan was a coin-flip game vs. Oregon. Oregon remains the lone undefeated team in College Football, so there’s certainly no shame in that defeat.

Tennessee has had more of an up-and-down year. The Volunteers started the year red hot, and when quarterback Nico Iamaleava is playing well, he looks like one of the best players in the country. It should shock no one if he’s an early draft pick in 2026. Unfortunately, his performances were pretty inconsistent during conference play.

Most of the public money has sided with Tennessee heading into Saturday, and there’s been no real professional action to speak of. I think the Buckeyes cover if they bring their best game, but that is certainly far from certain, given all the pressure from their fan base. They almost might be better off if this were a road game. If the Buckeyes fall into a hole early, things could get awful quiet in the stands.

Looking to get access to both our College Football Game Model and our College Football Player Props Tool? Sign up for Tier 2 of FantasyLife+ to access this and so, so much more!

PREDICTIONS FROM OUR CFB GAME MODEL

Best Bets for NFL Saturday Week 16

by Matt LaMarca

Texans at Chiefs (-3.5)—42.0 total

In my Week 16 Early Lines article, I recommended grabbing the Texans as 2.5-point favorites in Kansas City. Whoops! Unfortunately, that’s part of the game when betting without all the information you need before kickoff. I assumed that there was a slim chance that Patrick Mahomes would play in this contest, and I could not have been more wrong.

Not only will Mahomes play, he wasn’t even listed on the team’s final injury report. We’ve seen Mahomes win a Super Bowl on a balky ankle in the past, so there’s no reason to doubt his effectiveness for Saturday.

The big question is—can the Chiefs cover the spread? That has been easier said than done for them this season. The Chiefs are merely 2-7-1 ATS when favored by more than a field goal this season, and they’re 23-37-2 ATS in that split dating back to the start of the 2020 regular season.

The Texans did manage to cover as moderate favorites last week vs. the Browns, but this week’s game will be against a tougher opponent. The Texans have been underwhelming for most of the year, but they still feature one of the game’s preeminent young quarterbacks in C.J. Stroud.

Ultimately, my favorite way to play this game is Under 42.0 points. The Texans are a league-best 10-4 to the under this season, while the Chiefs are 8-6. Both of these offenses were expected to be among the best in football, but they have not lived up to the billing. I’m not expecting that to change on Saturday.

Steelers at Ravens (-7.0)—44.5 total

No disrespect to the Chiefs and Texans, but this is the game I’m most excited for—two storied franchises and two divisional rivals that have historically given us plenty of bangers.

The Steelers managed to win the first game between these squads earlier this season despite failing to score a single touchdown. They limited a potent Ravens’ offense to just 16 total points, their lowest output of the entire season.

The stakes for this contest couldn’t be much higher. A win would clinch the Steelers the AFC North thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker. A win for the Ravens locks up a guaranteed playoff spot, and it also pulls them into a tie for first place in the division. Their schedule looks a bit friendlier than the Steelers’ over the final two weeks, so they would be the favorites to win the division in that scenario.

Mike Tomlin has been a wizard at covering the spread as an underdog (62-32-3 ATS) and in divisional contests (61-42-3 ATS), and they will have T.J. Watt in the lineup for this contest. Unfortunately, George Pickens will remain sidelined with a hamstring injury, and their offense has not looked the same without him.

John Harbaugh is no slouch in his own right, and the Ravens should have revenge on their mind after losing in Pittsburgh earlier this year. There’s a lone remaining -6.5 (-115) on BetMGM, and I’m happy to lock that in before kickoff.

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