Is George Pickens Flying Under the Radar?
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Underdog Fantasy, George Pickens' receptions prop is examined, a home tax in MLB bets, and more.
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Underdog Fantasy
Stick To Your Guns: We’ve reached critical mass. At this point the football community is snarling like a starving dog and ready to pounce at anything resembling actionable news. Next up to supremely frustrate us are NFL “official” depth charts, which happen to be dropping as I write this (AUDIBLE SIGH). I get that no other point in the season has less available data—though we have several tools to help and this season’s projections—but that doesn’t make every bit we come across worthy of overreaction.
Let me boil it down to the brass tack. Teams lie. Coaches lie. Front offices lie. Coordinators lie—and I’ll be treating every word from their mouth as such. For example, don’t fret if your favorite Week 1 tight end just got listed as third on the depth chart (Ben Sinnott fans, I see you). If anything, trail the prop total to see if it sinks and go over that bad boy at its lowest point right before kickoff.
Dig deep, show intestinal fortitude…
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What else is in today’s newsletter?
- The New York Prop Exchange
- Building Blocks
The New York Prop Exchange ⚾️🏛️—Slim Pickens?
Let me tell you, seeing reception milestones (my favorite NFL market) finally hit live betting boards felt like Christmas morning. Now like a stalking lion, I’m looking for the undefended antelope either too far ahead or behind the pack—and our first target is locked (pun intended?).
From the broadest view, the thesis couldn’t be simpler. The Pittsburgh Steelers created a tremendous void in the passing game when Diontae Johnson, their leader in targets/game, catches/game, and receiving yards/game departed in a trade to Carolina. I hate to say the ball has to go somewhere but it does. The Steelers also did not invest heavily in the 2024 draft to bolster the WR room, leaving presumed alpha George Pickens to compete for targets with gadgety, replacement-level WRs Van Jefferson and Calvin Austin.
Pickens is a legit every-down player, evidenced in elite route participation weekly rates (below)...
…who’s shown the ability to earn targets consistently, even when playing with Diontae.
Pickens plays exclusively out wide which can theoretically lower volume, this is true. However, challenging the secondary outside the hashes has always been a favorite area for Russell Wilson, even with an offensively challenged Broncos squad (below).
While I’m not about to start singing the praise of Mr. Unlimited, Atlanta failed to generate any defensive pressure whatsoever last year and with time we should hit this easily. Honestly, I don’t even care who the defense is—the undisputed target earning WR1 shouldn’t be (+125), or only 44.4% probable to make five grabs of any distance.
THE BET: George Pickens Over 4.5 Receptions (+125) - 0.5u
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Building Blocks 🧠🧮—Home Tax
This building block is inspired by a reader (I love y’all!) who reminded me I can be too quick to hurl myself into the weeds sometimes—I forget not everyone is a lifetime degenerate. I get a lot of questions about making final selections for batter props with so many options and honestly, it’s difficult.
We’ve all been there; miss a prop on Monday, hop back on the train on Tuesday only to lose again, bail, and watch the same guy go on a three-game run right after. In that regard, sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. However, there are certain aspects to the bet books expect you to overlook, as they often aren’t reflected in the price.
The first two, high lineup placement and implied totals work together and make sense on their face. The earlier you bat in a lineup that also implies +5 runs becomes an obvious force multiplier by raising the chance of the purest commodity—an extra plate appearance.
The final and aforementioned fly in the ointment, or monkey in the wrench so to speak, is the venue. Remember, since we’re targeting offenses on good teams, most times the hitter you’re betting on plays for the favorite. Therefore, teams checking our first two boxes but playing at home, need to reduce expected plate appearances by ~11% — and generally speaking, you will not see this in the price.
You can search for MLB Player Props for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Finder!
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
Take a look at Thursday Night Football and other Week 1 NFL Best Bets.
Are the Philadelphia Eagles ready to soar over the division? Check out the NFC East Preview.
The season is about to kick off, time to take another look at NFL Win Totals with Matthew Freedman.
Want to take a peek at the early NFL betting lines? Matt LaMarca has you covered.
You can still join and play FastDraft. Don’t worry, these drafts are FAST.
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