March Madness 2025 Sweet 16 Best Bet: Ride Michigan State
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, Michigan State is one of the best in the Sweet 16, take the over on Rays-Rockies, MLB pitching matchups, and more.
In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
BASEketball Action! In their unbridled, infinite wisdom, the brilliant MLB schedule makers not only deprived us of any 1 p.m. starts—they also decided to forego beginning the season on an othewrise sports-free day. I believe they call that a two-fer.
I mean, it’s not like anyone watches the NCAA Tournament, right?
AUDIBLE SIGH
Why can’t Major League Baseball ever get out of its own way? I swear, sometimes it feels as if the organizational brass actively tries to avoid bringing in any new fans. Crazy thought … maybe it’s time to have someone who actually loves the sport double-check the schedule before release? Anyway, I digress …
MLB And March Madness Two-Fer
What better way to kick off the first real weekend of spring than some dual-sport action? After dropping the last leg of our first NCAA novice parlay, I’ve capitulated on chasing dogs for a more open-minded men’s tourney parlay. Then, it’s off to the diamond for a little afternoon delight down in sunny Florida.
Good luck!
Some notes!
📕 We’ve archived all of our MLB team betting previews here, along with my correlating futures plays. If you want to brush up on any teams you’re not sure about, give them a read.
📋 ICYMI: We’ve gotten a head-start on the 2025 NFL season and we’re continually updating our 2025 fantasy football rankings. We have a Fantasy Football Draft Kit, too.
🔮 Looking for more fantasy football talk? It’s dynasty season, and we have some buy-low candidates might be interested in. And our Superflex mock draft will get you thinking on some QBs.
🏈 And for the latest in our NFL Draft coverage … 👇🏼
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What’s going on the NFL and more with our merry band of sports nerds!
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🔥 Imagine the possibilities of Ashton Jeanty landing with a coach who loves to pound the rock.
🤔 Tyler Warren or Colston Loveland, it’s a tough choice at the top of Thor’s TE rankings.
📊 Last chance! Vote for the next Fantasy Life Magazine cover.
✌️ Is Puka Nacua really planning his end game?
🏋️ Taking a barbell approach to drafting TEs in best ball drafts.
💪 How does strategy change in a Superflex draft?
🏀 There’s a new favorite to win the Women’s NCAA Tournament.
🏀NCAA Men’s Tourney—(+600) Novice Parlay, Anyone?🏀
1️⃣ Michigan State -3.5
2️⃣ Michigan +8.5
3️⃣ Houston -8
No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Michigan State (-3.5)
Few things are working against Ole Miss, pushing me toward the Spartans tonight—and it’s not just because Tom Izzo’s a paesan (though that never hurts). The Rebels could be getting slightly overrated, beating an Iowa State team missing its best player after defeating a scuffling 11th-seeded Tar Heels squad. Ole Miss relies too heavily on threes for my liking, something Michigan State’s defended very well this year. Sparty’s got the edge across the rest of the Ken Pom sheet—so I’ll be glad to ride with the favorite, needing only four points to clear.
No. 5 Michigan (+8.5) vs. No. 1 Auburn
“They can’t keep getting away with this!” he shouted, pockets emptied, as Auburn continued its quest to cut down the nets. Top ranking aside, I’m surprised the Tigers lasted this long when you think about it—losing three of four entering the dance, then behind to ninth-seeded Creighton at halftime. This time, however, the Tigers face their most uncompromising defense to date—and 8.5 points feels too wide a spread against a team built to keep games close.
No. 1 Houston (-8) vs. No. 4 Purdue
The selection committee is getting more attention in this one than the No. 1 seed hard-charging through the tournament in the face of adversity. I stuck with the Cougars, who have been sharpening their teeth against top competition in all my Final Four brackets as soon as Ken Pom ranked them the nation’s best defense—and second-best team overall. Rather than complain about the Boilermakers' travel distance, the focus belongs on the poor pairing of Purdue’s inconsistent defense and slow-paced offense.
⚾💰MLB Opening Day—Rocked And Rolled!💰⚾
THE BET: TB Team Total O4.5 (-105)
Oh, Colorado. I don’t mean to dogpile anyone before a single pitch is thrown, but come on—what in the world are you doing? I’m no stranger to lovable losers either. Charlie Brown, Jon Arbuckle, and even Rocky—you can’t credibly accuse me of only backing favorites, but this is getting ridiculous. While the entire league is preparing to send their best starter to the mound and set the tone for a hopeful campaign, the Rockies turn to … Kyle Freeland.
For some perspective, check out where Freeland ranks compared to the average of 29 other SPs to lead their teams’ respective charges in 2025.
Average 2025 Opening Day SP ⏩ Kyle Freeland
- ERA: 3.30 ⏩ 5.24
- WHIP: 1.13 ⏩ 1.41
- SIERA: 3.59 ⏩ 5.11
- xERA: 3.49 ⏩ 4.47
Fastball Velocity (mph): 95.2 ⏩ 91.1
- K%: 26.5% ⏩ 17.3%
- K-BB%: 19.7% ⏩ 12.0%
- SwStrk%: 12.6% ⏩ 7.9%
- Zone-Contact%: 84.3% ⏩ 91.7%
- Barrel%: 7.5% ⏩ 10.6%
- HR/9: 1.0 ⏩ 1.8
Granted, the Rays struggled versus southpaws in 2024, but it’s also something they were quite vocal about addressing in the offseason. The Rays feature a new cadre of right-handed hitters, including Danny Jansen, Christopher Morel, and rookie phenom Junior Caminero to combat any lefties looking to capitalize on their past vulnerabilities.
Don’t forget the game’s also taking place at Steinbrenner Field, a minor-league stadium designed to mimic the original Yankee Stadium in dimensions—a park known for offensive output. Books listing this total at O4.5 (-105) honestly feels a little lazy, given the circumstances. My model’s spitting out a total north of five runs, which, for a mean outcome, spells an auto-smash on the Rays.
YAMAMOTO-FLAHERTY & MORE MLB BETTING ODDS
🧮⚾Betting Research Center—MLBMA Algo™ Data⚾🧮
For anyone more deeply interested in daily MLB betting on a more granular level, I took the liberty of sharing my world-famous starting pitching sheets, and MLB Moving Averages Algorithm results—hit me up anytime on X @JohnLaghezza with questions or comments!
March 28 SP Sheet
March 28 Algorithm Results
Hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!
SHOHEI OHTANI’S PLAYER PROP ODDS TO HIT A HR
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