NBA Bets for May 28 - Best Bets for Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Game 4

Like Obi-Wan Kenobi, the Timberwolves and Mavericks are our only hope.

The Celtics officially wrapped up their series vs. the Pacers in four games, and the NBA Finals don’t start until Thursday, June 6. That means if the Mavericks can finish off their own sweep in the Western Conference Finals, we won’t have basketball for more than a week.

While I’m sad that these series have been a bit of a disappointment, the Celtics were at least good to me from a betting perspective. We hit the -2.5 games prop for the third consecutive series, and they’ll now have plenty of time for Kristaps Porzingis to rest up before the Finals.

The Timberwolves have yet to win in the Western Conference Finals, but all three games have been competitive. They’ve lost the three games by a combined margin of just 14 points, and only Game 3 was decided by more than three. No team has ever come back from an 0-3 series deficit, but can the Timberwolves at least delay the inevitable?

Let’s dive into some of my best bets for Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Game 4 below.

Best Bets for Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Game 4

Timberwolves 1H ML at Mavericks (DraftKings; +102)

While the Pacers were ultimately unable to get the job done vs. the Celtics, they did manage to cover the spread. Still, the track record for teams that fall into an 0-3 hole isn’t pretty. Those squads are now 35-43-4 ATS dating back to 2005, so I’m not particularly interested in backing the Timberwolves on the full game line.

That said, I don’t think this team is going to roll over and die. Anthony Edwards hasn’t been at his best in this series, but that’s simply not in his character. I’m expecting to see max effort from the Timberwolves right out of the gate, which makes the first half moneyline my preferred target.

The Timberwolves haven’t been able to smother the Mavericks defensively in this series, so they’re going to need to put up more points if they want to win Game 4. Fortunately, they have plenty of room for positive regression from their two best scorers. Edwards has shot just 38.6% from the field and 33.3% from 3-point range in this series, while Karl-Anthony Towns is at 27.8% and 13.6%, respectively. Towns has historically been one of the best shooting big men in NBA history – he’s shot 52.4% from the field and 39.8% from 3-point range for his career – so he seems poised for improvement.

The Mavericks also suffered a crucial injury in Game 3. Dereck Lively went down with a neck sprain, and his importance for the Mavericks can’t be overstated. He has the second-best plus/minus of any rookie in playoff history, trailing only 25-year-old rookie Manu Ginobili in 2002-03. The Mavs are +22 with Lively on the floor in this series, so his absence is going to be felt.

Ultimately, I’m not sure if the Timberwolves will be able to close this game out. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are too good, and I expect them to pull it out if things are close late. But I like the Timberwolves to at least grab the lead at halftime and potentially set us up for a Game 5 back in Minnesota.

More Bets for Mavericks-Timberwolves Game 4

Daniel Gafford Over 7.5 rebounds (+110)

With Lively out of the lineup, Gafford is going to have to play big for the Mavericks in Game 4. The Mavs do have some other bodies that they could put into the rotation – particularly with Maxi Kleber cleared to return – but Gafford should still see a few additional minutes. He played just 21.1 minutes in the first two games of this series, but that figure jumped to 28.8 in Game 3.

The extra playing time didn’t really help Gafford on the boards, as he finished with just three rebounds in the win. Still, Gafford should be able to get to eight rebounds with that much playing time pretty consistently. He averaged 6.9 rebounds in just 21.5 minutes per game with the Mavericks during the regular season, so it’s not a stretch for him to get to eight if he approaches 30 minutes in Game 4.

Anthony Edwards Over 26.5 points (-135)

Edwards’ scoring prop is all over the place for Game 4. You can get the over on 25.5, 26.5, or 27.5 depending on the sportsbook, with the higher numbers costing less juice. I’m opting for the middle number, which you can find at BetMGM.

Edwards averaged just 16.5 shot attempts in the first two games of this series, and he made a vow to be more aggressive in Game 3. He responded with 24 shot attempts and a series-high 26 points. He still wasn’t particularly efficient, but it was at least a step in the right direction.

I’m expecting even more shots for Edwards in Game 4. Head coach Chris Finch has said that Edwards should be taking 30+ shots in playoff games, so I’m expecting a big output in an elimination game. You could consider some of the alt lines as well, but I’m going to keep it simple with the traditional over.

2024 NBA Playoffs Bets Record

Yesterday: 1-2 (-0.555 units)
Futures: 9-2 w/ one pending (+2.21 units)
Playoffs: 46-43 (+0.495 units excluding futures)