NFC North Betting Preview: Lions Roaring Favorites
Matt LaMarca places a big bet on each of the four NFC North teams in what shapes up to be a wild 2024 season.
The NFC North has the potential to be one of the most interesting divisions in football. At the top, the Lions and Packers stand out as two of the favorites in the NFC. The Bears will be ushering in a new era with Caleb Williams, the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Vikings also drafted a QB of the future, though a season-ending injury to J.J. McCarthy means his debut will have to wait until next season.
Can the Lions and Packers build on their success from last year? Will Williams follow in the footsteps of C.J. Stroud? Can the Vikings avoid the bottom of the division? Let’s dive into my favorite bets for each team in the NFC North.
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DETROIT LIONS
- Win Total: 10.5 Over (-130; Caesars), Under (+110; Caesars)
- To Make Playoffs: Yes (-245; DraftKings), No (+210; Caesars)
- To Win Division: +135 (DraftKings)
- To Win NFC: +550 (DraftKings)
- To Win Super Bowl: +1200
The Lions enter the season in pretty rarefied air. They increased their win total by six games from 2021 to 2022, and they increased it by another three wins in 2023. They became just the fourth team since 1990 to improve its win total by six games and then add another three-game improvement the following season.
The big question is: Can they make one final jump in 2024?
They came very close last season, leading the 49ers by 17 points at halftime in the NFC Championship Game. Unfortunately, that game was a microcosm for the Lions’ 2024 season.
The Lions were a terrible third-quarter team for most of last year, and sure enough, the 49ers outscored them 17-0 in the third quarter of the NFC Championship Game. The Lions’ pass defense was also a disaster— they were 31st in opponent yards per attempt—and Brock Purdy shredded them for 315 total yards. That was more than any 49ers QB in the history of the NFC Championship, and they’ve had some pretty darn good quarterbacks.
One way the Lions could improve their defense in 2024 is by blitzing less. Dan Campbell and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn dialed up a ton of blitzes last season, and they were largely ineffective. The difference between rushing four guys and rushing five or more was stark:
- Four rushers: 9th in EPA/attempt, 7th in completion rate, 1st in YAC per completion, 5th in pressure rate
- Five or more rushers: 32nd in EPA/attempt, 32nd in yards per attempt, 30th in YAC per completion, 24th in third-down conversion rate
The Lions were ultimately getting home with their four-man pass rush, so why was this coaching staff so insistent on blitzing?
The bigger issue was the secondary, which was completely overhauled this offseason. The team drafted cornerbacks with their first two picks—Terrion Arnold at No. 24, Ennis Rakestraw Jr. at No. 61—and added two more through trades and free agency (Carlton Davis and Amik Robertson). D.J. Reader was also acquired to upgrade the interior of the defensive line, so they have the potential to be vastly improved in 2024.
If the defense can match up with the offense … look out. The Lions have been a top-five unit in points and yards per game in back-to-back seasons, and Campbell has proven himself to be one of the best coaches in football.
That said, the Lions are a tricky team to invest in. They’re priced pretty aggressively, so there isn’t a ton of value in targeting them to win the NFC or the Super Bowl.
Instead, I’m going to look at a non-conventional market. The Lions start the year with one of the easiest schedules in football. Six of their first seven games will come against the Rams, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Seahawks, Vikings, and Titans, and four of those contests will be at home. The only tough game they’ll face in that stretch is on the road vs. the Cowboys, but the Lions will have a bye week to prepare for that contest.
Ultimately, it wouldn’t be a huge shock to see the Lions start the year at 7-0. That should be good enough to finish as the last undefeated team in football.
Bets
- Last Undefeated Team (+650)
GREEN BAY PACKERS
- Win Total: 9.5 Over (-138; FanDuel), Under (+135; Caesars)
- To Make Playoffs: Yes (-155; DraftKings), No (+155; Caesars)
- To Win Division: +230 (Caesars)
- To Win NFC: +800 (FanDuel)
- To Win Super Bowl: +1900 (DraftKings)
Throughout this series, it’s been pretty easy for me to come up with a bet for each team. Something almost always jumps off the page, be it a team win total, a longshot, or a player award.
No team has given me more trouble than the Packers.
Green Bay was essentially two different teams last year. They were awful in the first half of the season, and they were one of the best teams in football down the stretch. Who’s to say which version is closer to reality?
It’s easy to make the bull case for teh Packers. They were the youngest team in football last season, so it’s only natural that they got better as the season progressed. Specifically, Jordan Love emerged as one of the best quarterbacks in football. From Week 11 on, he ranked first in the league in EPA per attempt, passing yards, total touchdowns, and TD:INT ratio. He was so good that people are flocking to bet him to win the MVP at +1500.
The fact that their offense is so young has also allowed this squad to load up on defense. They’re spending the third-most money on that side of the ball, and they have playmakers at all three levels of the defense.
Still, I can't help but be a little skeptical. The offense was undoubtedly good, but it was also a bit lucky. The Packers scored on 95% of goal-to-go situations last year, which was not just the best mark in the league, but the best mark since at least 2000. They were dead last in that department in Aaron Rodgers' final season, so they had a significant change in fortune around the goal line.
Their defense also got to face one of the easiest groups of opposing quarterbacks you’ll ever see. They squared off with Desmond Ridder, Justin Fields (twice), Jimmy Garoppolo, Russell Wilson, Brett Rypien, Kenny Pickett, Tommy DeVito, Jaren Hall, and Bryce Young. If they couldn’t win games against that group of cupcakes, it would have been a serious issue.
In 2024, the Packers are expected to face the No. 1 schedule of opposing offenses. They have seven matchups against teams with a top-nine passing attack from last season, so things are going to be significantly tougher.
The Packers have been a very popular team in the futures market, so I’m not particularly interested in paying a premium for them. If anything, I’d probably be looking at them not to make the playoffs at +155 on Caesars. That number is as low as +125 on DraftKings, so that stands out as a decent value.
However, my favorite way to target the Packers involves pairing them with the Lions. You can bet them to finish as the top two teams in the NFC North at +150 on DraftKings. I really like that value. Some people think the Bears are a threat to contend for that spot in 2024, but I’m not of that opinion. The +150 translates to an implied probability of just 40%, and I think the chances of the Packers and Lions finishing in the top two (in any order) is significantly higher.
Bets
- Lions/Packers Top-2 finish (+150; DraftKings)
CHICAGO BEARS
- Win Total: 8.5 Over (-160; FanDuel), Under (+130; DraftKings)
- To Make Playoffs: Yes (+100; Caesars), No (-110; DraftKings)
- To Win Division: +340 (FanDuel)
- To Win NFC: +1600 (Caesars)
- To Win Super Bowl: +4000 (Caesars)
I wrote about the Bears for the Betting Life Newsletter earlier this offseason, so I’m not going to spend a ton of time rehashing my points. To summarize—I think expectations are way too high for Williams’ first professional season.
The hype has only built during the preseason. Williams made a couple of outstanding plays in an extended preseason start vs. the Bengals … but he ultimately completed less than 50% of his passes for 75 yards. He did that in a full half against second- and third-string defenders. Maybe I’m old fashioned, but that’s far from impressive in my eyes.
The Bears are also still led by a coaching staff with plenty of questions to answer. Matt Eberflus is just 10-24 in his two years as the Bears’ head coach, failing to hit the over on his preseason win total in both campaigns. From an ATS perspective, Eberflus is just 13-20-1, including 2-4 as a favorite. I’m not convinced that this is the guy to lead the Bears back to prominence.
Fading the Bears to make the playoffs at -110 is an easy call, and I like the value with Under 8.5 wins at +130 as well. Just because C.J. Stroud led the Texans to the playoffs in a weak division doesn’t mean we should expect that to be the norm for rookie quarterbacks moving forward.
Bets
- No playoffs (-110)
- Under 8.5 wins (+130)
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
- Win Total: 6.5 Over (-140; DraftKings), Under (+125; BetMGM)
- To Make Playoffs: Yes (+300; DraftKings), No (-300; BetMGM)
- To Win Division: +1000 (BetMGM)
- To Win NFC: +4000 (DraftKings)
- To Win Super Bowl: +10000 (BetMGM)
The Vikings enter the year with the lowest expectations in the division, and rightfully so. This was supposed to be a year where they break in their rookie quarterback, but they’ll have to settle for Sam Darnold instead.
Darnold has gained some buzz throughout training camp and the preseason, but reclamation projects don’t have a strong track record in NFL history. After all, if Darnold were good, I don’t think the Jets, Panthers, and 49ers all would’ve let him get away. There have been some successful reclamation projects of late, but guys like Geno Smith remain the exception to the rule.
That said, I do think the Vikings made the right decision in letting Kirk Cousins leave. He had just one playoff win in six years with the Vikings, and his metrics were trending in the wrong direction. He’s not the type of quarterback you want to pay $40M a year.
It wouldn’t be a shock if head coach Kevin O’Connell got the best out of whatever Darnold brings to the table. He worked as much magic as he could with Nick Mullens last season, but Mullens was a turnover waiting to happen. The fact that Mullens led the league in third-down completion percentage and third-down interception rate is one of the most mind-boggling stats from 2023.
Of course, the Vikings still have the league’s premier receiver in Justin Jefferson. He could probably go for 1,000+ yards with me throwing him the football, so Darnold could put up career numbers in this system.
The problem is that even if Darnold is competent, the team could give it all back on defense. They’re spending almost nothing on that side of the ball, and they’ll have to replace some of their top pass-rushers from last year. That includes Danielle Hunter, who put together a career year with 16.5 sacks.
Ultimately, there are too many ways for this season to go wrong for Minnesota. The defense could be a disaster. Darnold could show zero improvement. Guys like Jefferson and Aaron Jones could miss time with injuries—they combined for 13 missed games last year. I’m fine with taking the under on 6.5 wins at better than even-money.
Bets
- Under 6.5 wins (+125)
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