NFC West Betting Preview: 49ers Set to Rule Division Again?
Matt LaMarca analyzes each of the four NFC West teams and delivers a betting preview before the 2024 NFL season.
The NFC West has the potential to be one of the best divisions in football this season. The 49ers enter the year as the favorites in the entire conference after losing to the Chiefs in overtime of Super Bowl LVIII. The Rams and Seahawks also both won at least nine games last season, while the Cardinals were competitive after Kyler Murray returned to the lineup. Overall, three of the four teams have legit playoff aspirations, while the Cardinals will be looking to crash the party.
Can anyone catch the 49ers at the top of the division? Let’s dive into my favorite bets for all four squads.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
- Win Total: 11.5 Over (+126; FanDuel), Under (-145; Caesars)
- To Make Playoffs: Yes (-420; FanDuel), No (+350; BetMGM)
- To Win Division: -190 (FanDuel)
- To Win NFC: +300 (FanDuel)
- To Win Super Bowl: +625 (Caesars)
The 49ers were hands down the best offensive team in football last season. It wasn’t particularly close, either. They were first in the league in EPA per play, and they also ranked in the top three in both yards and points scored.
Still, it seems as though people struggle to believe in this offense.
That stems from the fact that Brock Purdy is leading the charge at quarterback. We all know Purdy’s story by now. He was the last pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, and injuries to Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance opened the door for him to see the field. He immediately seized the opportunity, racking up a perfect 7-0 record as a starter before suffering an injury in the NFC Championship.
Purdy picked up right where he left off in 2023. He was first in the league in EPA + CPOE composite, and he led the league in touchdown rate, adjusted yards per attempt, quarterback rating, and QBR.
Still, Purdy is probably never going to shake the “game manager” perception. There’s no doubt that Purdy has the easiest quarterback job in the league. The 49ers have the best rushing attack in football, while Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle are all outstanding pass-catchers. Aiyuk just signed a contract extension, so this top-notch threesome of skill players is ready to roll. Add in Kyle Shanahan’s elite offensive system and a solid offensive line, and Purdy just has to take whatever the defense gives him.
The fact that Purdy is still on a minimal contract has allowed the 49ers to build a juggernaut. They rank in the top nine in positional spending for seven different position groups: offensive line, running back, wide receiver, tight end, defensive line, linebackers, and cornerbacks. When you can spend like that and still get elite production at quarterback, you’re going to win a lot of games.
However, there are a few nits to pick with Purdy and the offense. They played a very easy schedule of pass defenses last year, with just four regular-season matchups against top-10 units. In those games, the team struggled to a 1-3 record and averaged just 20.75 points per game. Two of those games did coincide with Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel being out of the lineup, and their game vs. the Browns took place in putrid weather. Still, the fact remains that the offense did not show up in their toughest matchups.
The Christmas Day loss to the Ravens and the Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs were the most glaring examples. The team was at full strength for those contests, and Purdy was not able to reach the heights needed to secure a win. The defense also couldn’t get the stops when they needed to.
The 49ers are expected to face a tougher string of pass defenses in 2024, and the NFL has once again given them the worst rest schedule in football. After a negative-20-day rest edge in 2023, they’re somehow even worse in 2024.
Things get particularly brutal from Week 7 on. They play the fourth-hardest schedule over that timeframe, and some of their toughest matchups are against teams coming off a bye. They have to play four separate opponents coming off a bye week, and they just so happen to be the Chiefs, Cowboys, Seahawks, and Bills. I’m not sure why the schedule makers seem to hate the 49ers, but that is a brutal draw.
The 49ers were able to overcome the schedule adversity last year, finishing with the best record in the NFC. That said, I’m not convinced they can do it again. I’m still a big fan of this team overall, but 10 or 11 wins feels more likely than 12+.
Bets
- 49ers Under 11.5 wins (-145)
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LOS ANGELES RAMS
- Win Total: 8.5 Over (-152; FanDuel), Under (+145; Caesars)
- To Make Playoffs: Yes (-110; FanDuel), No (+105; Caesars)
- To Win Division: +350 (DraftKings)
- To Win NFC: +1500 (DraftKings)
- To Win Super Bowl: +3000 (FanDuel)
Sometimes, I think we forget about just how good a coach Sean McVay is. We’ve seen more and more offensive gurus enter the league in recent years—Mike McDaniel, Zac Taylor, and Shane Steichen, just to name a few—but McVay remains the OG. Though he’s actually the youngest out of that quartet.
McVay helped completely turn the Rams’ season around in 2023. They were sitting at just 3-6 heading into their Week 10 bye, with the offense averaging just 19.78 points per game. After their bye, they were 7-1 and averaged 28.25 points per game. Their only loss over that timeframe came in overtime vs. the Ravens, and the offense was No. 4 in EPA per play.
So what changed? In short, the Rams utilized more play action, more pre-snap motion, and fewer downfield throws. Cooper Kupp, in particular, was targeted much closer to the line of scrimmage, and the results were significantly better.
The Rams were able to squeak into the playoffs and were close to pulling off an upset win over the Lions in a game that they probably should’ve won. They outgained the Lions by nearly 100 yards, but McVay’s conservative decisions on fourth down cost the team in the end. It’s his one big flaw as a head coach and one he’ll hopefully address after last season.
It’s hard to remember, but the Rams entered last year with minimal expectations. They had a “stars and scrubs” type of roster construction, with a few guys making huge money and most of their roster making very little. The defense was the cheapest in all of football, filled with rookies and unknowns looking to make a name for themselves alongside All-Pro DT Aaron Donald.
That remains the case in 2024, but the prognosis is a bit rosier. The fact that Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams were able to break out as stars at very cheap salaries certainly helps. They also added four more defenders with their first five draft picks and signed vet corners Tre’Davious White and Darious Williams in free agency.
The Rams will have to replace Donald’s production on defense, which is going to be easier said than done. However, as long as Matthew Stafford stays healthy, this team should remain very competitive. With McVay at the helm, this has the potential to be a top-five offensive unit again in 2024. They’re considered roughly a coin-flip to make the playoffs, and I think that’s a value.
Bets
- Rams to Make the Postseason (-110)
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SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
- Win Total: 7.5 Over (-144; FanDuel), Under (+130; DraftKings)
- To Make Playoffs: Yes (+186; FanDuel), No (-210; Caesars)
- To Win Division: +750 (BetMGM)
- To Win NFC: +3500 (Caesars)
- To Win Super Bowl: +8000 (Caesars)
The Seahawks ultimately feel pretty similar to the Rams. They have a strong offense and a questionable defense, but the big difference is the coaching. While the Rams have one of the best offensive minds in the business, the Seahawks have had Pete Carroll for the past 14 years. Carroll is a lot of things, but an offensive genius is not one of them.
They’ll transition to a new coaching staff in 2024, and I’m personally excited to see what they can do. Mike Macdonald will take over as the head coach after serving as the Ravens’ defensive coordinator for the past two seasons. Ravens DCs haven’t had the greatest track record as head coaches, but Macdonald will at least have some help. The team was able to sign Ryan Grubb away from the University of Washington, which is a very exciting hire. He was able to turn the Huskies into one of the best offensive programs in the nation despite not having the same level of talent as some of the blue-chip programs.
Grubb will have a good bit of talent to work with in Seattle. DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is one of the best receiver trios in football, while Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet give them a solid 1-2 punch at running back.
Geno Smith has also established himself as an above-average passer. He wasn’t quite as good in 2023 as he was in 2022, but he was 14th in EPA + CPOE composite and earned the 14th-highest PFF grade at the position. He might not be a true game-changer, but he’s capable of winning ballgames. Smith might just a betting favorite to surpass his passing-yards prop this season.
The bigger questions are on the defensive side. The Seahawks' defense was not good last year, and the unit struggled specifically against the pass. They were No. 29 in dropback EPA against, with only the Commanders, Cardinals, and Titans ranking worse. Those teams averaged less than five wins apiece, so the fact that the Seahawks were able to win nine games speaks to what their offense can do.
Their splits were pretty telling. They went just 2-7 against teams that ranked in the top 19 in passing offense, and they were 7-1 against teams in the bottom 13. In short, when the Seahawks didn’t get shredded through the air, there was a good chance they were going to win the game.
That’s why the pairing of Macdonald with Grubb makes a lot of sense. Macdonald has some talent to work with in the secondary, with TaRiq Woolen and Devin Witherspoon both oozing with potential.
This is another team I feel is undervalued to make the playoffs. They’re +186 in that market, and I have no problem backing three NFC West squads to make the postseason. The NFC South should only get one team in, and while the NFC East and North are strong, their top teams have some flaws.
Bets
- Seahawks to Make the Playoffs (+186)
ARIZONA CARDINALS
- Win Total: 6.5 Over (-150; DraftKings), Under (+125; DraftKings)
- To Make Playoffs: Yes (+320; FanDuel), No (-400; Caesars)
- To Win Division: +1400 (BetMGM)
- To Win NFC: +5000 (DraftKings)
- To Win Super Bowl: +12500 (Caesars)
The Cardinals were basically drawing dead at the start of last season. They don’t have a great roster to begin with, and they were trying to win games with Joshua Dobbs and Clayton Tune at quarterback. That’s not a formula for success, and the Cardinals fell into a 1-8 hole.
When Kyler Murray returned to the lineup in Week 10, their fortunes completely flipped. They went 3-5 with Murray in the lineup, and their offense was a borderline top-10 unit. In Murray’s eight games, they ranked third in plays per drive, fifth in yards per drive, seventh in scores per drive, and ninth in points per drive. They also jumped up to ninth in EPA per play, sandwiching them between the Bills and Dolphins. That has Matthew Freedman very optimistic about their prospects in 2024.
That’s the kind of upside that Murray brings to the table. It was only three years ago when he led the team to a 7-0 start and was the MVP frontrunner. Then he suffered an injury, and the team skidded to a 4-6 record over its final 10 games. The Cardinals were ultimately eliminated in the first round by the Rams, who would go on to win the Super Bowl.
That’s the big problem with Kyler. The Call of Duty addiction might not be great, but he’s typically excellent when he’s on the field. He’s simply not on the field all that often.
Additionally, the offense is going to have to be great to offset their defense in 2024. They were the second-worst defense in football last year in EPA per play, and they’ve made no real improvements on that side heading into this season. Four of their first six draft picks were spent on offensive players, and their biggest free agent signing (Jonah Williams) was a left tackle. The team did make a few small improvements, but this team still looks like a bottom-five unit for the upcoming season.
They also have to navigate a brutal schedule to start the year. Seven of their first 10 games will come against the Bills, Rams, Lions, 49ers, Packers, Dolphins, and Jets. Those are all teams that expect to make the playoffs. Two of their “easy” games in that stretch are home games vs. the Chargers and Bears, and they still both have win totals of at least 8.5. Things do get easier after their Week 11 bye, but the Cardinals could be well out of contention by that point.
Still, if I knew that Murray was going to be healthy for 17 games, I’d still probably peg this team to win 7+ games. Unfortunately, history suggests that won’t be the case. There are a lot of ways for this season to go poorly in a tough division, so the under on 6.5 wins at better than even money makes a lot of sense.
Bets
- Under 6.5 wins (+125)
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