Here are my best NFL bets for Week 11, accompanied by some brief notes on other games that have my attention as well as the 2-5 teams I'm most considering for survivor contests (such as the Circa Survivor).

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Alright … let's get into Week 11.

Abbreviations: See the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)

My Favorite NFL Bets For Week 11

Here are my favorite bets currently available.

• Packers -6 at Bears (-110, DraftKings)
• Dolphins-Raiders Under 44.5 (-110, BetMGM)
• Browns +105 at Saints (ESPN Bet)
• Steelers-Ravens Over 47.5 (-115, ESPN Bet)
• Chiefs +116 at Bills (FanDuel)

Odds and projections as of Tue. 11/12 at 10:15 pm ET. For updated lines, see our Fantasy Life odds page.

Packers -6 at Bears (-110, DraftKings)

Let's start with the most basic but perhaps the most salient fact: With HC Matt LaFleur, the Packers have consistently and soundly embarrassed the Bears (per Action Network).

• LaFleur ATS vs. Bears: 10-0 | 93.2% ROI | +8.15 Margin
• LaFleur ML vs. Bears: 10-0 | 57.5% ROI | +12.7 Margin

I think that about says it all. The Bears are not at all in the same tier as the Packers.

The Bears have had a top-five home-field advantage over the past half-decade, but that edge will be duller than usual this week: The Packers are coming off the bye, and home-field advantage is halved against divisional opponents.

Additionally, I expect the Packers to be almost fully healthy coming off the bye—especially QB Jordan Love (groin)—whereas the Bears are significantly injured, especially on the offensive line and in the secondary.

• Offensive Line: LT Braxton Jones (knee), LG Teven Jenkins (ankle), RG Nate Davis (back), RT Darnell Wright (knee), OT Kiran Amegadjie (calf)
• Secondary: CB Jaylon Jones (shoulder, IR), SS Jaquan Brisker (concussion)

With these injuries, the Bears will be challenged to protect QB Caleb Williams on offense and stop Love on defense.

In the lookahead market last week this line was -3, so the adjustment to the current consensus has been severe, but it's hard to say it isn't warranted.

As the saying goes, once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, thrice is a pattern—and the Bears have had the worst offense in football in their three games since returning from the Week 7 bye (per RBs Don't Matter).

• Offensive EPA: -0.239 | No. 32
• Offensive SR: 34.4% | No. 32

Maybe the offense will be better following the dismissal this week of former OC Shane Waldron. Then again, maybe giving playcalling duties to passing coordinator Thomas Brown—the Panthers OC last year—isn't actually a good idea.

For this season, Williams has a subpar 5.9 AY/A; over the past three weeks, a terrible 4.9.

The Bears are at serious risk of being blown out at home by their division rivals.

• Bet in Tracker: Packers -3 (-110, SugarHouse Lookahead)
• Projection: -7.1

Dolphins-Raiders Under 44.5 (-110, BetMGM)

This bet is primarily about the Raiders.

With QB Desmond Ridder expected to start, it's not hard to imagine the Raiders offense struggling to score.

Throughout his short career, the under has been profitable in his 17 starts.

• 2022: 3-1 | 44.0% ROI | +2.25 Margin
• 2023: 9-4 | 32.2% ROI | +1.85 Margin

Defensive HC Antonio Pierce is unserious about putting up points and maximizing his team's potential to win: When given the opportunity to punt or settle for a field-goal attempt on fourth down, Pierce almost always makes the suboptimal risk-averse decision.

Against a respectable Dolphins defense ranked No. 12 in EPA (-0.024), the Raiders could have multiple three-and-out drives.

And then there's the weather: The forecast calls for winds of 13 mph, and games with an average wind speed of 10-15 mph since 2003 have gone under with a record of 554-397-7 (12.6% ROI).

• Bet in Tracker: Under 46 (-110, DraftKings Lookahead)
• Projection: 42.4

Browns +105 at Saints (ESPN Bet)

Let's start with the fact that Saints QB Derek Carr's teams throughout his career have underperformed expectations when favored.

• Underdogs ATS vs. Carr: 39-22-2 | 22.7% ROI | +3.09 Margin
• Underdogs ML vs. Carr: 28-35 | 12.2% ROI | -0.81 Margin

This has been especially true with the Saints.

• Underdogs ATS vs. Carr's Saints: 10-5-1 | 25.9% ROI | -1.09 Margin
• Underdogs ML vs. Carr's Saints: 8-8 | 21.8% ROI | -4.81 Margin

Let's add on top of this the dynamic of Browns QB Jameis Winston returning to the Superdome for a #RevengeGame against his former team. Might he have a little extra motivation for this game? Possibly. Am I going to bring this up as an item in his favor? Definitely.

And it will certainly help that he's going against a secondary that is without No. 1 CB Marshon Lattimore (traded), No. 2 CB Paulson Adebo (leg, IR), and maybe top backup perimeter CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (hamstring), who has been out since Week 9. The Saints defense is exploitable in its current state.

The Saints are at home, but their advantage is mitigated by the Browns coming out of their bye week, and these teams are literally right next to each other in my power ratings.

Given their health edge, I have this game projected close to a pick'em with a lean toward the Browns, which means I like them at anything better than even money.

• Bet in Tracker: Browns +110 (DraftKings Lookahead)
• Projection: -102.3

Steelers-Ravens Over 47.5 (-115, ESPN Bet)

As was the case last week with Ravens-Bengals, this is an outdoor AFC North game in November. Generally, that's the kind of game that would entice me to the under.

But this year, the Ravens have been elite on offense and vulnerable on defense.

• Ravens Offense: 0.216 EPA | No. 1
• Ravens Defense: 0.073 EPA | No. 27

As a result, Ravens overs are a league-best 9-1 (71.5% ROI, +9.35 Margin).

And the sample is small, but in his three starts this year Steelers QB Russell Wilson is No. 2 in AY/A (9.6) and No. 6 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.148). With Wilson, the Steelers have put up 37, 26, and 28 points.

Unsurprisingly, Steelers overs are 3-0 (92.7% ROI, +9.17 Margin) since Wilson became the starter in Week 7.

That 24-23 outcome is gonna sting.

• Bet in Tracker: Over 47.5 (-115, ESPN Bet)
• Projection: 49.6

Chiefs +116 at Bills (FanDuel)

I need to be very transparent about this: My bet on the Chiefs is due almost 100% to vibes.

My projection is in line with the market … but I can't get past how dominant QB Patrick Mahomes has been when getting points on the road.

• Mahomes ATS as Road Dog: 10-0-1 | 87.9% ROI | +9.0 Margin
• Mahomes ML as Road Dog: 9-2 | 104.0% ROI | +5.73 Margin

Almost blindly, I want to be on Mahomes and the Chiefs when they're dogs. It's that simple.

But I also like the situation for them.

Offensively, they should have success with RB Kareem Hunt against a defense without LBs Matt Milano (biceps, IR) and Baylon Spector (calf, IR).

Defensively, they should be able to do enough to slow down a pass-catching unit dealing with injuries to WRs Amari Cooper (wrist) and Keon Coleman (wrist) and TE Dalton Kincaid (knee).

I wouldn't be surprised if the Bills won. My projection points in that direction.

But with Mahomes, the Chiefs routinely find ways to win games they shouldn't. Why shouldn't that trend continue this weekend?

• Bet in Tracker: Chiefs +116 (FanDuel)
• Projection: +114.6

Week 11 NFL Games That Have My Attention For Betting

• Bears-Packers Under 41 (-110, Caesars): This game is forecast with 14 mph winds and a 30% chance of rain.
   
• Jets-Colts Under 44 (-110, Caesars): This game features two QBs with an average age of 40 years playing outdoors in November.
   
• Cowboys +7.5 vs. Texans (-110, FanDuel): Backup QB Cooper Rush is 5-2 ATS (36.8% ROI) for the Cowboys for his career.

NFL Week 11 Survivor Picks

I did not survive the Week 3 carnage. Embarrassing.

Anyway, if I were still in the Circa Survivor contest, here are the teams I'd think about for Week 11, under the assumption that in Weeks 1-10 I used the Seahawks, Chargers, Jets, Bengals, Bears, Eagles, Commanders, Broncos, Vikings, and 49ers.

• Packers -6 at Bears: The Packers might not be favored by this many points again this year.
   
• Lions -13 vs. Lions: I'd theoretically like to save the Lions for the Thanksgiving round in case I need them, but sometimes you just need to look yourself in the mirror and say, "When in Rome."
   
• Dolphins -7.5 vs. Raiders: The Dolphins have an eight-day rest-and-prep disadvantage, but I like the idea of picking against Raiders QB Desmond Ridder.
   
• Rams -5 at Patriots: This might be the high point for the Rams in the market.
   
• Texans -7.5 at Cowboys: After this week, the Texans have three divisional games and matchups against the Ravens, Chiefs, and Dolphins. Now might be the time.

Abbreviations

• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Moneyline (ML)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Points Per Game (PPG)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)

Previous NFL Best Bets Pieces

My previous best bets pieces can be found on my author page.

For the rest of my Week 11 bets, check out our bet tracker.

Take Me To The NFL Bet Tracker