NFL Bets For Week 12: Swimming With The Dolphins
Matthew Freedman has never been afraid of swimming with Dolphins, and he breaks down why he's all-in on backing them (and more) in Week 12.
Here are my NFL bets for Week 12, accompanied by some brief notes on other lines that have my attention as well as the 2-5 teams I'm most considering for survivor contests (such as the Circa Survivor).
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Alright … let's get into Week 12.
Abbreviations: See the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)
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Best NFL Bets For Week 12
Here are my favorite bets currently available.
- Bears-Vikings Under 39.5 (-110, FanDuel)
- Dolphins -7 vs. Patriots (-105, FanDuel)
- Commanders -10 vs. Cowboys (-110, Caesars)
- Texans-Titans Under 42 (-110, DraftKings)
- Eagles -2.5 at Rams (-120, DraftKings)
Odds and projections as of Tue. 11/19 at 7 pm ET. For updated lines, see our Fantasy Life odds page.
Bears-Vikings Under 39.5 (-110, FanDuel)
This bet is largely about the weather and circumstances.
The forecast in Chicago at kickoff calls for 10 mph winds, a 10% chance of rain showers, and a temperature of 49 degrees Fahrenheit.
The precipitation and temperature aren't a large concern, and most bettors don't think of 10-mph wind as significant, but that's the threshold where the wind actually starts to matter for NFL totals.
Since 2003 (as far back as my database goes), the under in games with an average wind speed of 9-11 mph is 451-337-10 (10.6% ROI, per Action Network).
And when these outdoor games take place in "cold weather" stadiums (NFC & AFC North), the under is even more profitable: 115-75-3 (17.1% ROI).
Historically, the under has been the sharp side in divisional games: 1,080-977-34 (1.8% ROI).
Especially in the second half of the regular season: 550-481-20 (3.7% ROI).
Both the Bears and Vikings have been heavy under teams this season.
- Bears Unders: 7-3 | 34.4% ROI | + 4.55 Margin
- Vikings Unders: 7-3 | 34.0% ROI | + 3.45 Margin
The Bears could be without two of their three starting interior offensive linemen in LG Teven Jenkins (ankle) and RG Ryan Bates (concussion), without whom they could struggle to sustain drives against the Vikings defense, which ranks No. 1 in blitz rate (37.7%) and pressure rate (29.6%).
The matchup of rookie QB Caleb Williams vs. diabolic DC Brian Flores seems inherently unfriendly for points.
- Bet in Tracker: Under 40 (-110, DraftKings Lookahead)
- Projection: 36.9
Dolphins -7 vs. Patriots (-105, FanDuel)
Does it matter that QB Tua Tagovailoa has markedly exceeded expectations at home?
- Tagovailoa ATS at Home: 19-11 | 20.9% ROI | +3.28 Margin
- Tagovailoa ML at Home: 22-8 | 18.8% ROI | +7.57 Margin
Maybe. The Dolphins have had the NFL's best home-field advantage over the past three and five years, and it's possible that the betting market still doesn't value it correctly.
Does it matter that Tagovailoa has dominated as a favorite of at least six points?
- Tagovailoa ATS as Big Favorite: 11-4 | 40.4% ROI | +6.77 Margin
- Tagovailoa ML as Big Favorite: 14-1 | 14.0% ROI | +16.9 Margin
Maybe. The Dolphins are something of statistical bullies. Against outclassed opponents—like the Patriots—they often pile on the points.
And speaking of the Pats … does it matter that Tagovailoa has been perfect throughout his career against them?
- Tagovailoa ATS vs. Pats: 6-0 | 90.6% ROI | +8.5 Margin
- Tagovailoa ML vs. Pats: 6-0 | 108.3% ROI | +9.0 Margin
Maybe. The Patriots defense over the past few seasons has tended to rely on talent over scheme, which means that it has been exploitable when facing offenses with true playmakers, which the Dolphins have in abundance with RB De'Von Achane, WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and TE Jonnu Smith.
Tagovailoa this year is No. 3 in EPA + CPOE (0.165, per RBs Don't Matter) while the Patriots are No. 29 in defensive dropback EPA (0.168).
I doubt the Pats will be able to stop and keep pace with the Dolphins offense.
- Bet in Tracker: Dolphins -7 (-105, FanDuel)
- Projection: -8.3
Commanders -10 vs. Cowboys (-110, Caesars)
On their excellent Deep Dive Gambling Podcast, cohosts Drew Dinsick and Andy Molitor have occasionally mentioned the "Widowmaker Spot"—and this week we get an instance of it with the Cowboys on a one-day deficit off Monday Night Football playing the Commanders on a three-day surplus off Thursday Night Football.
Think of that.
Even though the Cowboys are operating within the normal flow of the seasonal schedule—they and their opponent both played the previous week—the coaches and players have a rare four-day rest-and-prep disadvantage.
That's killer, and it's made all the worse by the fact that the Cowboys must travel to Washington.
Historically, home widowmakers have dominated.
- Home Widowmaker (ATS): 10-4 | 39.8% ROI | +6.71 Margin
- Home Widowmaker (ML): 11-3 | 13.3% ROI | +12.3 Margin
The situational spot for the Commanders is perfect—and then there's the matchup.
The Cowboys are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA (21.4%, per FTN). Without EDGEs DeMarcus Lawrence (foot, IR), Marshawn Kneeland (knee, IR), and Sam Williams (knee, IR), they could struggle to get pressure against star QB Jayden Daniels (a worthy -400 Offensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner).
And in the secondary, they could be without starting CBs DaRon Bland (foot) and Jourdan Lewis (neck), neither of whom practiced nor played last week.
The Cowboys will probably be unlikely to stop the Commanders offense from getting whatever it wants through the air.
And then when the Commanders shift to the ground game in the second half to control the ball and run out the clock, the Cowboys will still likely provide little resistance given that they rank No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.084).
And it probably doesn't hurt that defensive HC Dan Quinn knows Cowboys HC Mike McCarthy's offensive system from their time together in Dallas.
Might McCarthy also know Quinn's defense? Sure. That's possible.
Can McCarthy exploit that system … on short rest … while traveling … with backup QB Cooper Rush? That's possible but not probable.
- Bet in Tracker: Commanders -9.5 (-110, FanDuel)
- Projection: -11.4
Texans-Titans Under 42 (-110, DraftKings)
This year, Texans unders are a league-best 8-3 (39.5% ROI).
This game features two top-six defenses.
- Texans Defense: 38.5% SR | No. 2
- Titans Defense: 40.5% SR | No. 6
Both offenses are outside of the top 20 in pace (per FTN).
- Texans Offense: 27.9 seconds per snap | No. 21
- Titans Offense: 29.1 seconds per snap | No. 31
Of the passers still starting, Titans QB Will Levis has a league-worst 13.1% sack rate. Even if EDGE Will Anderson (ankle) is out, it's not hard to imagine the pass-rushing quartet of EDGEs Danielle Hunter, Denico Autry, Derek Barnett, and Jerry Hughes turning the calendar back to 2018 and going off on a second-year player with limited pocket awareness.
With two good defenses, a slow Titans offense that could be unable to sustain drives, and a Texans offense unmotivated to matriculate the ball in an aggressive fashion, points could be precious in this matchup.
- Bet in Tracker: Under 42.5 (-110, DraftKings Lookahead)
- Projection: 40.1
Eagles -2.5 at Rams (-120, DraftKings)
The handicap for this game is straightforward.
Last week, the Rams were without LT Joe Noteboom (ankle) and RT Rob Havenstein (ankle). Given that neither one practiced in Week 11, I doubt either will suit up for Week 12.
Against the Patriots last week, the Rams could get away with a wounded offensive line.
Against the Eagles—and EDGEs Josh Sweat, Nolan Smith, Brandon Graham, and Bryce Huff—the Rams without their starting OTs could struggle to protect statuary QB Matthew Stafford.
- Bet in Tracker: Eagles -2.5 (-120, DraftKings Lookahead)
- Projection: -3.5
Week 12 Betting Lines That Have My Attention
Steelers -185 at Browns (DraftKings): Steelers HC Mike Tomlin in division is 74-33-1 ML (18.3% ROI); Browns HC Kevin Stefanski, 13-13 ML (-2.0% ROI).
Browns-Steelers Under 36.5 (-110, Caesars): The forecast calls for 16-mph winds with a 95% chance of rain showers and a 37-degree temperature.
Cardinals -102 at Seahawks (FanDuel): QB Kyler Murray as a road underdog is 15-13 ML (65.9% ROI).
NFL Survivor Picks For Week 12
I did not survive the Week 3 carnage. Embarrassing.
Anyway, if I were still in the Circa Survivor contest, here are the teams I'd think about for Week 12, under the assumption that in Weeks 1-11 I used the Seahawks, Chargers, Jets, Bengals, Bears, Eagles, Commanders, Broncos, Vikings, 49ers, and Texans (in that order).
- Lions -7.5 at Colts: This is an option, but I'd like to save the Lions for the Thanksgiving round in case I need them.
- Dolphins -7 vs. Patriots: The Dolphins will likely not be favored by a TD again this year.
- Buccaneers -5.5 at Giants: The Bucs are off a bye, and they get to face backup-caliber QB Tommy DeVito.
- Chiefs -11 at Panthers: I love the idea of picking against the Panthers, but I probably need to save the Chiefs for the Thanksgiving and Christmas rounds.
Abbreviations
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Points Per Game (PPG)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
Previous Best Bets Pieces
My previous best bets pieces can be found on my author page.
