NFL Bets: Monday Safe Space After Rough Week 1
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by FantasyLife+, Breece Hall is featured in a Monday Night Football prop, Reid Detmers K bet, and more.
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by FantasyLife+:
TILTEDš¤¬: Welcome to the Monday safe space, your betting haven and trust tree ā a comfort-zone/digital-pillow to scream intoā¦ and an early look ahead to the next week.
We all make mistakes, right? Letās take a look at a few from around 2:30pm ET on Sunday ā and what we can learn from it allā¦
āYou think Iām laying 4.5 points on a debuting rookie QB? Draft capital, shmaft capital ā¦ I donāt care if Caleb Williams is the next big thing. Titans up by 17! Huzzah! THE BEARS ARENāT EVEN GOING TO SCORE A TD ON OFFENSE!ā
(Narrator: Well, the Bears didnāt score a TD on offense ā¦ yet still won the game and managed to cover on a Will Levis INT that literally dropped that poor guy to his knees.)Ā
āNo way I was enough of a donkey to buy Buffaloās offseason hype without a premier pass catcher to replace Stefon Diggs! Plus, I had a sneaking suspicion the Cardinals offense was much better than expected ā I mean, I am extremely sharp (he he he). Getting 5.5 points against this Bill team? And itās not even cold yet? Easy money ā¦ Arizonaās up 17-3! Iām the worldās smartest man!ā
(Narrator: Arizona not only lost outright, but a good old-fashioned wagon-circling caused a second-half Cardinals implosion and also blew the cover.)
āCouldnāt help but laugh to myself as Marvin Harrison Jr.ās receiving prop skyrocketed into the mid-60s ā when sharps like me smashed it at the 51.5 open. LOLZ! I mean, have you seen this guy play? Sure to be the last time all season his prop starts with the number 5.ā
(Narrator: Harrison didnāt just miss his total, a whopping 4 receiving yards on a 10.7% target/route left bettors staring up at the sky in bewilderment.)
āThe answer to the Billsā receiving woes couldnāt be clearer, itās the best remaining full-time playerā¦ duh. Dalton Kincaidās sophomore breakout begins NOW!ā
(Narrator: Kincaid played 88% of snaps, all right ā yet earned only 2 targets for an astounding 1 total air yard.)
Make sure to check out Betting Lifeās FREE on-site handicappers page. Weāre filling it up every day! NFL and college!
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What else is in todayās newsletter?
- The New York Prop Exchange
- Building Blocks
- Give āEm The Heater
The New York Prop Exchange ššļøāBreeceās Pieces
Straight adrenaline for 7.5 hours of commercial-free football got my heart pounding out of my chest, so Iāll keep tonightās cap short. Tonight my New York J-E-T-S JETS! JETS! JETS! head out for the best coast to face the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football. As someone in the building exactly one year ago to see Aaron Rodgers do his best Captain America impression at MetLife for all of four snaps, letās just call my optimism cautious.
[For more props and predictions, check out the Fantasy Life props tool and our expert player projections.]
Thereās one thing, however, even the most self-hating, pessimistic gang-greener like myself would admit ā Breece Hall is freaking awesome. Looking at what he accomplished last year with some of the worst quarterback play in a quarter-century is remarkable. Hall averaged over 93 scrimmage yards a game (below)āand thatās with the Jetsā coaches admitting to limiting him early on.Ā
Hall ranked second in the league in total scrimmage yards (below), going out with a bang in an incredible 526-yard explosion from Weeks 16-18.Ā
And then thereās the pure workload that Iām betting will get us past the goal despite an admittedly tough matchup. At over 31%, Hall actually leapfrogged Christian McCaffrey in terms of total percentage of team yards from scrimmage last season (below).
I chose the combined rush + receiving yard prop to cover our backdoor in case of negative game script. Jets ahead in a dogfight? Itās Breece between the tackles. Jets trailing late? Itās checkdown city, baby! Any way you slice it, the Jets deploy such a narrow utilization tree, itās hard to see Hall finishing healthy and to the under.Ā
THE BET: Breece Hall Over 92.5 Rush + Rec Yards (-115) DraftKing Sportsbook
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Building Blocks š§ š§® ā TT > ML / ATS
TT > ML/ATS may look like any other high school algebra equation, but this building block is actually useful in real life. The theory is simpleāgambling on sports is really hard and we should strive to eliminate variables whenever possible.Ā
The solution to successfully betting NFL opening lines, regardless if itās for an outright win (ML) or against the spread (ATS) remains beyond human calculation. And as if that werenāt bad enough, the wisdom of a global crowd then steps in to smooth out any edges. Rather than surrender and always enjoying a good challenge, I added something to my checklist before ever pulling the trigger ā team totals (TT). Again, the thinking is simple. Eclipsing a team total provides a singular objective goal, not one that exists on a sliding scale.Ā
Sundayās Week 1 ARI/BUF game exemplified this perfectly. I thought Buffalo laying (+5.5) was too rich, saying just as much in last weekās survivor article (Make sure to read every Thursday!). That said, how could I not worry about the Cardsā defense being atrocious? Except, instead of wishing or hoping against hope for a result, I checked the team total to discover it was only 19.5.
It almost doesnāt matter how much you like getting the 5.5 points if there is no scenario it happens scoring fewer than 20. In this case, I couldnāt imagine itāso itās definitely worth those few seconds to check the total first. The very same analysis yielded different results whether you went Arizona TTO19.5 or Arizona +5.5.
If College Football is also your game, follow the weekly best bets from our Betting Life staff.
Give āEm The Heater ā¾ļøš„ ā Reid-ing Rainbow
Quick bonus MLB prop without running on too long. Hereās the skinny. Slight changes in a pitcherās mechanics, delivery or release point can cause an immediate impact. Whatever the Angels did to regain Reid Detmersā spin rate on his breaking stuff is working like a charm. The Halosā lefty SP regained peak powers recently after a disastrous start to 2024, averaging nearly 7.5 K/G over a dozen starts (below) ā capped off by going over 9 Ks four times in a row!
The Twinsā team K% vs LHP sits right around average (23%) over 30 days (~300 PA) but both chase and zone-contact rates rank in the bottom-10. Frankly, Iām not sure it matters ā Detmers is a +6K guy getting off the bus.
THE BET: Reid Detmers Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115) FanDuel
You can search for MLB Player Props for todayās slate with our MLB Prop Bet Finder!
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
Dwain McFarland introduces the Utilization Score to help us understand player roles to forecast future performance.
Get a jump on NFL Week 2 with this great episode featuring player props, spreads, totals, and more.
Jets vs. 49ers on Monday Night Football. What are the sharps betting on?
Matt LaMarca gets a jump on the early betting lines for whatās shaping up to be an epic Week 2 in the NFL.
Geoff Ulrich offers an overview of the big upsets and late covers in his Week 1 NFL Betting Recap.
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