NFL Futures Bet: Will Jalen Hurts Hit This Passing Prop?
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, with the NFL Draft over, examine the NFL Futures market, look at this NL ROY candidate, and April 29 MLB best bets.
In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
Full Swing: With the 2025 Draft in the rearview mirror, itās all but official at this pointāthe NFL has firmly surpassed MLB as our national pastime. And as much as it pains to me admit, Iād be lying if I told you I wasnāt beyond excited to dig into some freshly listed football futures.
Today I make my first NFL bets of the calendar year, along with a juicy longshot on the National League Rookie Of The Year, whose price is all but certain to shorten in the coming weeks (if not days).
One Article To Rule Them All
Before we dive into todayās action, Iād be remiss to not take a second and tip my hat to some truly awesome content by our very own Thor Nystrom. Not sure Iāve read a better piece all year than his 2025 NFL Draft gradesāthe most comprehensive review of the draft Iāve seen maybe in my entire life. Itās truly remarkable and left me feeling like I spent months studying up on this stuff (and not just because he gave my Jets a B-!)
Hot takes š„ , hotter takes š„š„š„, and the latest draft rumors ā¦
š Sometimes you win. Sometimes you lose. All is fair in love and NFL drafting.
š„ Itās time for Best Ball Mania VI. Take your shot at millions.
š¤Where should Travis Hunter go in a dynasty mock draft?
š Want to know where everyone got picked in the NFL Draft? Our draft tracker has it.
š“ Remember, dreams can come true. It was a long wait.
šš®Look Into My Crystal BallāNFL Futures First Look š®š
Jalen Hurts Under 3200.5 Passing Yards (-110):
Donāt take betting this under as an indictment on the quality of the Eaglesā offense, when in fact itās closer to the opposite. Philadelphiaās front office spent the last half-decade building a top-down roster juggernaut, culminating in last yearās Super Bowl wināand like the inimitable Frank Sinatra, they did it their way.
Jalen Hurts didnāt even come close to going over this number last season, falling nearly 300 yards short because simply put, throwing late wasnāt necessary. Just five teams posted a second-half rush rate north of 50% in 2024, with none higher than 57%āexcept for PHI at +63%! Did I mention they have some guy named Saquon Barkley running the ball, who last I checked was pretty good?
Stacked on both sides of the ball, Philly may be even better on defense this time around, once again failing to necessitate the full potential of their aerial attack. Hey, boasting the leagueās best point, play, and yards allowed totals comes with consequences.Ā
Sam Darnold Over 3500.5 Passing Yards (-110):
To be blunt, I donāt understand this line at all. Expecting some degree of negative regression from Sam Darnold leaving Kevin OāConnellās offense is one thing, but 819 yards is something completely different. The surrounding contextual environment is going to change for the worse, I get that. The thing is, you donāt have to be a world-beater to eclipse 3,500 yards through the air. In fact, 18 different QBs passed that mark in 2024.Ā
With only Drew Lock competing for early repsāJalen Milroe is very much a developmental playerāthis feels like a true overreaction to the last time we saw Darnold play. Itās not like heās heading to Pittsburgh or Green Bay, where running is the standardāthis is Klint Kubiak weāre talking about. For reference, Seattle finished 2024 with the fifth-highest pass rate in the NFL, and barring injury, this should cash easily.
Mike Evans Over 999.5 Receiving Yards (+175)
Death, taxes, the sun rising in the eastāand Mike Evans going over 1,000 receiving yards. Aaah, nothing beats the certainties in life.
Eventually this magical run will come to an end, but even though heās entering his age-32 season, Evans is showing no signs of stopping. Among all 49 wideouts who earned 80+ targets in 2024, Evans is still producing like a high-end WR1. The future Hall of Famer ranked top 10 in team air yard rate (33.0%), targets per route (26.6%), yards per route (2.43), and air yards per game (91.0) as a favorite deep focus of Baker Mayfield.Ā
And how could I forget? Tampaās pass defense easily ranked in the NFLās bottom tier as one of only five teams to allow 240+ passing yards a game. Everythingās in place for Evans to break Jerry Riceās record streak with his 12th consecutive 1,000-yard season, and Iām here for it.Ā
ā¾šMLB FuturesāIs Saint AgustĆn A Major ROY Value?šā¾
THE BET: AgustĆn RamĆrez To Win NL Rookie Of The Year (+450)
After dealing with an absolutely stacked field of rookies last season, featuring household names like Paul Skenes, Jackson Chourio, and Shota Imanaga, Iām not sure many (if any) casual fans even know whoās in the running for 2025.Ā Stop 10 people outside your favorite stadium and Iād be shocked if two or three of them could rattle off this year's favorites. And where thereās uncertainty, lies opportunity for those of us in the know.
For lack of a better term, most of the popular preseason picks for National League ROY have stunk thus far. Consensus favorite, Dodger SP Roki Sasaki canāt find the dish, boasting a +16% walk rate to go with a +5 expected ERAāwhich signals things may actually get much worse from here. Then thereās Matt Shaw and Zac Veen, both of whom already earned demotions for hitting below .170 and combining for a 71 wRC+. While itās still early enough for any or all of their production to turn around, itās safe to say things havenāt gone well for MLBās elder league.Ā
Now, just a week after being promoted, AgustĆn RamĆrez legitimately enters into the conversation. The Marlinsā new 23-year-old starting catcher and former Yankee prospect (sigh) had nothing left to prove in MiLB, evidenced in a ridiculous 600 PA career MiLB pace (.268 BA/103 Runs/108 RBI/29 HR/24 SB). Maybe itās the fantasy geek in me, but the steals and runs scored really pop off the pageāprecisely the kind of ability to fill the stat sheet voters fawn over.
Not to stress tiny samples, but pricing in these markets is extremely fluid so you have to react quickāand the results so far in the big show validate the front officeās decision to make the call. In just five MLB games, Ramirez has posted fewer strikeouts (2) than home runs (3), including a couple of +105 MPH lasers out to left center.Ā
Again, granted the sampleās smaller than small itās still been beyond impressive. According to OptaSTATS on social media, only one MLB rookie has put up a .700 BA, 1.400 SLG, +5 XBH, +1 SB, 0 K over any 3-game span in the modern eraāand his name is AgustĆn RamĆrez.
Perhaps most importantly for our prospects of cashing this future has to do with opportunities and plate appearances, which can be limited at the dish for a backstop. Luckily one once, the Marlinsā ineptitude on offense will serve as a benefitāin both games he wasnāt strapping on catcherās gear, Ramirez served as the cleanup hitter in a DH role.Ā Given the combination of opportunity, talent and lack of dominant competition, he could be a market favorite before you know it.
š§®ā¾Betting Research CenterāMLBMA Algoā¢ Dataā¾š§®
Todayās SP Sheet
For anyone still interested in daily MLB betting on a more granular level, hit me up anytime on X @JohnLaghezza. I provide my world-famous starting pitching sheets and MLB Moving Averages Algorithm results seven days a week to the betting public.
Hope you enjoyed todayās Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!
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