NFL Sharp Report. Identifying Week 15 Line Movement

There are tons of resources available to help you make more informed decisions, including our suite of Betting Tools at Fantasy Life.

One of my favorite things to look at is the betting percentage splits.

You can see the breakdown of the number of tickets and money coming in on each side and the total, indicating where the sharp money is landing.

For example, if a team gets 50% of the spread bets but 80% of the dollars, the large wagers – which tend to come from professional bettors – are siding with them.

The public money typically comes in smaller increments, so the other side can have the same number of tickets at a significantly lower handle.

Essentially, this allows us to take a peak at the smart kid's homework before the start of class.

Sharp bettors are respected for a reason: they win more than they lose. It would be foolish not to take their opinions into account.

After a poor showing in Week 13, we bounced back with a 3-2 performance last week. That brings us to 39-29-2 for the season, good for a win right of greater than 57%. That might not sound like much, but it's more than good enough to be profitable.

Let's dive into five games the pros are taking a stand on for NFL Week 15.

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (-115; PointsBet)

Opening Line: Vikings +5.0
Target Range: Vikings +3.0 or better

We've got three games to choose from on Saturday, and the game between the Vikings and Bengals is a preferred target for the sharps. They love the opportunity to back Minnesota at more than a field goal.

While the public has become enamored with Jake Browning, much of his success has been built around smoke and mirrors. Among 52 QBs with at least 38 pass attempts this season, Browning ranks 51st in average intended air yards per attempt. But while he's averaged only 3.7 air yards on his completions, his receivers have gotten an average of 7.3 yards after the catch on his passes. Those are the types of numbers that scream regression.

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Jake Browning (6) celebrates after rushing for a touchdown Sunday, Dec. 10, 2023, during a game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati.

The Vikings have also been playing phenomenal defense of late. They're second in EPA/play defensively since Week 7, and they're coming off a shutout over the Raiders in Week 14. While the Raiders' offense may not be one of the league's best, shutting out anyone in the NFL is tough. The Raiders hung more than 60 points on the Chargers on Thursday, so overlook the Vikings' D at your own peril.

Overall, they've held six of their past eight opponents to less than 20 points, and they've allowed an average of 15.0 points per game over that time frame.

The Vikings will be making a quarterback change to Nick Mullens, but that may actually be a slight upgrade over Josh Dobbs. Dobbs has averaged 5.2 adjusted yards per attempt for his career, while Mullens is at 7.0. Part of that stems from a limited tenure with Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers, but he's also fared well when given opportunities elsewhere.

Ultimately, the Vikings are listed above the Bengals in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings. Even with this game in Cincinnati, they should not be getting more than a field goal.

Chicago Bears (+3.0) at Cleveland Browns (-102; FanDuel)

Opening Line: Bears +3.5
Target Range: Bears +3.0 or better

Don't look now, but the Bears might be legit. It's too late for them to make any noise in 2023, but they've played extremely well over the second half of the year. They've won three of their past four games, and the lone exception was a fourth-quarter collapse on the road vs. the Lions. They had a win expectancy greater than 97% in that contest, so they could very easily be on a four-game winning streak.

The most significant difference for the Bears has been their defense. They're sixth in EPA/play defensively since Week 7, and they've been elite at stopping the run.

That sets up well for this matchup vs. the Browns. Cleveland is starting Joe Flacco at quarterback, who was literally on the couch less than a month ago. Flacco has put up solid counting stats in his two wins, but his efficiency metrics leave a lot to be desired. He's averaged just 6.5 adjusted yards per attempt, and he's 24th out of 27th qualified QBs in EPA + CPOE composite over the past two weeks.

I locked in a play on the Bears earlier this week at +3.5, but I still think they're playable at +3.0. This number has already dipped to 2.5 at a few locations, so I'd grab one of the 3.0s while you can.

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Carolina Panthers (+3.0) vs. Atlanta Falcons (-105; BetMGM)

Opening Line: Panthers -1.0
Target Range: Panthers +3.0 or better

Look, no one said that betting with the sharps was supposed to be easy. The sharps bet with minimal emotion. They're cold and calculated, relying on the data while the public relies on their emotions.

The Panthers burned the sharps last week in a game that was far closer than the final score indicated. That said, they're going right back to the well in Week 15.

Dec 3, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Carolina Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard (30) celebrates after a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

The Panthers are catching a full field goal at home against the Falcons, and the sharps believe that's too many points. The current number suggests the Falcons are at least four points better than the Panthers on a neutral field, and that might be a bit aggressive.

Nothing we've seen from the Falcons recently can be classified as impressive. They lost last week at home to the Buccaneers. They escaped with a five-point win against Tim Boyle. They won a home matchup vs. the Saints where they were outgained by approximately 50 yards. In short – this is not a good football team.

The Panthers have been a money pit for bettors all season. They're 3-9-1 ATS, rewarding bettors with a -48.3% ROI. It's only natural for a team that has been that bad to become undervalued. Historically, teams with an ATS winning percentage of 25% or worse have gone 39-30-1 ATS from Week 14 on. It may not feel good, but plugging your nose and taking the Panthers is the right way to attack this contest.

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New York Jets at Miami Dolphins Under 37.5 (-115; FanDuel)

Opening Total: 40.5
Target Range: Under 37.0 or better

The Dolphins had an all-time collapse last week on Monday Night Football. They should be thanking Tommy DeVito's agent for distracting Twitter, otherwise their pitiful showing down the stretch would've been talked about a lot more:

They should be able to bounce back with a win vs. the Jets, but it might not be particularly pretty. They did manage 34 points in their first meeting vs. New York, but that was with Boyle at QB. He threw a pick-six on a Hail Mary – something I didn't previously know was possible – and is most likely the worst player to take meaningful snaps at the QB position this season.

The Dolphins had three turnovers in that contest, so they will need to play better if they're hoping for a similar result on Sunday.

Ultimately, the pros are not expecting many points in this matchup. The Jets D has been excellent all season, while the Dolphins D has looked great since getting back Jalen Ramsey. They're fourth in EPA/play defensively since Week 8, while the Jets check in at No. 5.

37 is a key number when it comes to total betting, so I wouldn't touch the under if it got under that. We're probably not going to do any better than the 37.5 currently available at FanDuel, so it makes sense to hop on it now.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals Over 47.5 (-110; FanDuel)

Opening Total: 46.0
Target Range: Over 48.0 or better

This one is pretty simple – the 49ers are an absolute offensive wagon capable of scoring 40+ points in any given week. They're third in the league in points per game and second in yards, and those numbers would likely be higher if not for a three-week stretch without Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel.

There has been lots of talk about Brock Purdy's MVP candidacy on Twitter recently, but there's no denying how effective he's been in this offense. He's first in virtually every QB metric possible, while they're first in EPA/play offensively by a mile.

They may approach 47.5 by themselves in this matchup, so whatever the Cards bring to the table is just gravy.