MVP is less about who’s best and more about who has the right numbers…

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by LG Channels:

Before the season, I thought the NFL MVP would be the QB for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, given the strength of the conference and caliber of its QBs.

Now I expect the 2023 MVP to be an NFC QB.

🤷‍♂️ AFC QBs

Jim Sannes and I discussed the MVP market on this week’s Bigger Picture episode of the Betting Life Show — but none of the top AFC QBs has distinguished himself.

Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Tua Tagovailoa, and Trevor Lawrence are flawed. And the best AFC teams are in a tight race for the No. 1 seed.

At the end of the season, the top four AFC seeds could be within a win of each other, and the QB for the No. 1 seed could be an unremarkable MVP option.

Compare that to the NFC…

🦅 Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts is the frontrunner (+210, Caesars) thanks to the Eagles’ league-best record (10-1). And it helps that last year he was -150 after Week 15 but lost out after missing Weeks 16-17 to injury.

Hurts’ numbers this year (7.3 AY/A, 0.139 EPA + CPOE) aren’t what they were last year (8.4, 0.144, per RBs Don’t Matter), but the Eagles are -320 to get the No. 1 seed (FanDuel).

Given that Hurts is the frontrunner, if the Eagles maintain their spot it seems likely he will win.

Action Item: If you like the Eagles to get the No. 1 seed and/or beat the 49ers this weekend, you might as well bet on Hurts to win MVP.

I have a +1200 MVP preseason ticket on Hurts in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.

🤠 Dak Prescott

If the Eagles don’t get the No. 1 seed, that will likely mean either Dak Prescott or Brock Purdy finished the season strong.

If that happens, Prescott or Purdy will be a justifiable frontrunner — especially Prescott.

In the seven games since his embarrassing three-INT performance against the 49ers, Prescott has passed for 2,173 yards and 21 TDs with just two INTs and 29-129-2 rushing. That’s 2018 Mahomes-level production.

For the year, Prescott is No. 3 in AY/A (8.5), No. 2 in EPA + CPOE (0.175), and No. 1 in QBR (75.5, per ESPN).

He won’t win MVP if the Cowboys don’t overtake the Eagles — and they’re 1.5 games back — but the Eagles are underdogs this week against the 49ers and next week against the Cowboys.

It’s possible.

Action Item: If you like Prescott to win MVP (+475, DraftKings), that’s cool — but you’ll get more bang for buck by betting the Cowboys to win division (+650, Caesars) or the No. 1 seed (+1500, FanDuel).

⛏️ Brock Purdy

Purdy gets a boost from his surrounding talent and playing for HC Kyle Shanahan, but he’s No. 1 in AY/A (9.8) and EPA + CPOE (0.205).

He has already beaten Prescott and is now favored on the road against Hurts.  

If the Eagles lose as underdogs this week to the 49ers and next week to the Cowboys, the 49ers could be the No. 1 seed frontrunners, which would make Purdy a real candidate.

Action Item: If you like the 49ers to get the No. 1 seed (+400, DraftKings), then Purdy MVP +1300 (PointsBet) might be the best way to leverage your perspective.

I have a +5000 MVP preseason ticket on Purdy in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.

For everything you need for Week 13 — including our inactives page, which will update shortly after 11:30 am ET with all of the relevant status updates — you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.

See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:

Every week, Matthew Freedman writes an article with five of his favorite player props. Here are a couple of them, which you can find (along with lots of other bets) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.

☝️ Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD (-190, BetMGM)

• My Projection: -247.6
• Cutoff: -225

In McCaffrey’s 25 games with the 49ers, he has 29 TDs. This year, he has scored in every game but one (90.9%).

He has a league-high 49 redzone carries as well as 12 redzone targets.

At -190, McCaffrey has a 65.5% implied probability of scoring a TD this week (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator), and I have his true odds of scoring at 71.2%.

The TD market tends to be overjuiced, but McCaffrey is one of the few TD bets that consistently offers value.

💪 Kalif Raymond Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)

• My Projection: 20.2
• Cutoff: 18.5

In only two games this year has Raymond had a route rate of at least 50% (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

He’s a situational player.

Is it degenerate to bet the over on a No. 4 WR? Yes. But it’s intelligently degenerate.

For the year, Raymond has a solid 20% target rate. He isn’t a windsprinter.

And since joining the Lions in 2021 he has averaged 9.3 yards per target. This year, he’s at 10.9, so he doesn’t need many targets to go over 14.5, which he has done in nine of 11 games.

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When: TODAY at 11:00 am EST

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Why: Because they are going to get you ready to win your dominate your fantasy matchups before kick-off including:

• 5 guys who could boom
• Zack is Back!
• Will Rashee Rice continue to cook?

Ed Feng is the proprietor of The Power Rank. This season, he’s 34-22 (+20.5 units) on INT props. Here’s one of his INT bets for Week 13.

📉 Baker Mayfield Over 0.5 INTs (-102, FanDuel)

Baker Mayfield has excelled at taking care of the ball in Tampa Bay, as his INT rate of 1.8% this season is better than the NFL average of 2.4%.

However, INT rate isn’t a good metric to predict future INTs. In my research, I’ve found the utility in looking at a bigger set of plays.

The NFL play-by-play tracks passes defended or plays in which the defense gets a hand on the ball or jars it loose with a hit. The sum of INTs and passes defended is what I call bad balls (plays in which the QB puts the football in danger). Bad ball rate is an excellent predictor of INTs.

Mayfield has always struggled to keep the ball out of dangerous situations. This season, he has a bad ball rate of 14.2%, worse than the NFL average of 12.3%.

My model gives a 58.1% chance that Mayfield throws a pick against Carolina. There is value in Mayfield over 0.5 interceptions at -102 (50.5% break-even probability).

Welcome to Week 13 of Bets from the Group Chat, where I (Geoff Ulrich) elicit information from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their bets.

Last week we had a +413 winner to get us to 4-4 on the group chat parlay for the season. We are now +17.5 units since starting. (SHEESH)

1️⃣ Freedman Likes: Kalif Raymond Over 16.5 ReYds (-110, BetMGM) 

• Play to 18.5 (-110) 
• Projection: 20.2 yards

Freedman highlighted this already. Why not include it here? Nuff said.

2️⃣ Mark Drumheller Likes: Colts/Titans Over 42.5 (-115, BetMGM)

• Play to 42.5 (-120)

The Colts have been one of the rare over teams this year. They are 7-4 to the over in 11 games and are also 10th in plays per game. 

This week, they face an eroding Tennessee defense (28th in EPA allowed). As Mark noted himself in our FREE bet tracker, “the first matchup (23-16 Colts win) yielded 39 total points, but had 777 total yards.”

3️⃣ Geoff Likes: Steelers -6.5 (-110, BetMGM) 

• Play to 6.5 (-120)

I bet this at -5.5 in our Free bet tracker but would play it at anything under a TD. Cardinals WR Michael Wilson is out and WR Marquise Brown (heel) is questionable. Two of their CBs are out as well.

The Cardinals run stoppers are fifth last in success rate against the run, and QB Kenny Pickett posted the second-highest QBR of the season in his first week without Matt Canada. Tough spot for Arizona.

🤝 Putting It All Together: +593 (BetMGM)

📈 Week 13 Ladder Plays: Kyren Williams, Rams (BetMGM)

• 75+ RuYds (+130): Play to +125
• 100+ RuYds (+360): Play to +350
• 125+ RuYds (+750): Play to +700

The Browns are banged up and have been regressing as a run-stopping unit. They’re 14th in success rate against the run and have allowed more explosive runs of late (including a 74-yard run by Jaylen Warren two weeks ago). 

Williams had a 56-yard run last week and also clocked a 31-yarder in Week 6 before his injury. Overall, Williams has topped 100 rush yards in three of his last four starts.

Despite all this, we are still getting fantastic odds to chase Williams through 100 and even 125 yards this week.

📊 Taking a look at the smart kid’s homework. Where sharps are betting for Week 13.

🐙 Release the Kraken? Give your good players more touches, win more games…

💰 Need more plays? We’re up +13.19 units in the last 30 days and have over 25-plus FREE bets waiting for you.

😝 The milk’s gone bad, Terry. More receiving yards for everyone but you…

📊 Projections vs player prop lines. Week 13’s biggest edges.

🥧 “You don’t score, until you score.” Touchdown bets for Week 13.

🚨 Last-minute bets, anyone? We’ve got you covered before kickoff.

The Packers have been streaking of late, but they’ll face a massive test Sunday night vs. the reigning Super Bowl champions. Matt LaMarca dives into his favorite bets for this contest.

👍 Best Bet: Under 43.0 (-112, DraftKings)

I liked the Packers at +7 when this number was first released, but that’s no longer available, so let’s pivot to ol’ reliable: The primetime under.

2023 has been a banner year for unders: They’re 106-74-1. The under in primtetime games has gone a sparkling 29-10, and if you look only at SNF and MNF, they’re an absurd 23-3, good for a very nice +69.1% ROI.

And while this has been a particularly profitable year for SNF and MNF unders, they’re now 103-57-3 dating back to 2019.

Also, an under between these teams makes sense. The Packers offense has improved but it’s stepping up in competition vs. the Chiefs. The last time the team faced a top-flight defense, it managed just 19 points vs. the Steelers.

Additionally, the Chiefs have been an under machine. They’re 8-3 to the under, the fifth-best mark in the league.

⬆️ Top Prop: A.J. Dillon Over 45.5 RuYds (-114, FanDuel)

Dillon isn’t a good RB, but it’s hard not to love his rushing over. Volume is everything at RB, and Dillon should see it in this matchup.

He racked up 67% of the Packers’ rush attempts on Thanksgiving, and he had 11 more carries than backup RB Patrick Taylor.With Aaron Jones sidelined this is Dillon’s backfield.

If he can get to 14+ carries this week — we have him projected for closer to 15 — he doesn’t need to be efficient to go over 45.5. The Chiefs have allowed 4.6 yards per carry to opposing runners, so even Dillon should be able to find some success.

We have Dillon projected for just under 62 rushing yards.

🚀 Same-Game Parlay (+1100, DraftKings)

• Under 43.0
• Packers +7.0
• Dillon Over 45.5 rushing yards
• Rashee Rice Over 47.5 receiving yards

I’m keeping this week’s SGP simple. I’m starting with the under on 43 and pairing that with Packers +7. Buying the extra point decreases the potential payout, but +7 is a key number.

After that, I’m adding two favorite props: Over 45.5 rushing yards for Dillon and over 47.5 receiving yards for Rice. Dillon correlates with a Packers cover and under, while Rice’s number just seems too low.