NFL Sharp Report. Identifying Week 16 Line Movement

There are tons of resources available to help you make more informed decisions, including our suite of Betting Tools at Fantasy Life.

One of my favorite things to look at is the betting percentage splits.

You can see the breakdown of the number of tickets and money coming in on each side and the total, indicating where the sharp money is landing.

For example, if a team gets 50% of the spread bets but 80% of the dollars, the large wagers – which tend to come from professional bettors – are siding with them.

The public money typically comes in smaller increments, so the other side can have the same number of tickets at a significantly lower handle.

Essentially, this allows us to take a peak at the smart kid's homework before the start of class.

Sharp bettors are respected for a reason: they win more than they lose. It would be foolish not to take their opinions into account.

Week 15 was a big one for this article, going a near-perfect 4-0-1. The Bears were the only contest that didn’t come through, and you could’ve got them at +3.5 if you bet them early in the week. Still, another solid week brings us to 43-29-3 for the season, which is about as good as you can ask for in the NFL.

Let's dive into five games the pros are taking a stand on for NFL Week 16.

Los Angeles Chargers (+12.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (-105; FanDuel)

Opening Line: Chargers +1.0 (pre-Herbert injury)
Target Range: Chargers +12.5 or better

I am decidedly on the opposite side of this game. I wrote about the Bills in my Early Lines article this week, and my opinion on that contest hasn’t changed. If Buffalo brings even their B+ game to Los Angeles, they should win this game by two touchdowns.

That said, I also knew I’d be on the opposite side of the sharps.

The sharps love to buy low on bad teams, and you can’t buy any lower than the Chargers. They were demolished on Thursday Night Football in Week 15, suffering a humiliating 63-21 defeat to the hapless Raiders. It resulted in head coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco getting the boot, so the organization will have a completely different feel in Week 16.

Dec 14, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Easton Stick (2) warms up before the game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Historically, teams coming off a loss of at least 35 points have been excellent investments. They’ve gone 75-44-6 ATS since 2005, making it one of the most profitable spots in football. Those teams are merely 0-3-1 ATS in 2023, but it’s still been a very profitable long-term trend.

Additionally, this is just a really good spot for the Chargers. They’re playing on extra rest, while the Bills could be a bit flat after back-to-back emotional, season-saving wins vs. the Chiefs and Cowboys. They’re also at home, while the Bills will have to fly across the country to play on short rest.

If the Chargers see the “dead coach bounce,” we may get a better effort from them than we’ve seen in quite some time. I’m still skeptical that it happens, but this article is about the sharps.

If you want to tail the pros, I’d recommend waiting this out and seeing how high the line can get before kickoff. The sharps got down early in the week when this number was at +13.0 or +13.5, so the number would ideally get back there before you lock it in.

Washington Commanders (+3.0) at New York Jets (-110; Caesars)

Opening Line: Commanders +5.5
Target Range: Commanders +3.0 or better

Here’s one where the sharps and I are in complete agreement. They love the Commanders to cover this week, and so do I. Washington isn’t getting a ton of betting action – 52% of the bets, 55% of the dollars per the Action Network – but the professional money has sided with the Commanders.

The Jets boast a strong defense and should make life difficult for Sam Howell. However, the team still needs to find a way to point some points on the board. They’ve struggled in that regard all season, and things look even bleaker than usual vs. Washington.

Trevor Siemian will make his first start of the year – the team’s fourth different starter in 15 games – and what we’ve seen from Siemian in relief has not been impressive. He’s completed less than 50% of his passes and averaged just 2.2 adjusted yards per attempt with a 5.1% interception rate.

Now that Zach Wilson is officially out with a concussion, there’s a chance that this number moves below three. Getting three is vital – it’s the most important key number in NFL betting – so if you miss it, you can approach the Commanders in a few different ways. You could just take them on the moneyline or use them as part of a six-point Wong Teaser. Regardless, having some exposure to Washington this week seems like a sharp decision.

You can tail the Commanders at Caesars, where you can get your first bet of up to $1,000 on the house when you sign up for a new account below.

Minnesota Vikings (+3.0) vs. Detroit Lions (-110; BetMGM)

Opening Line: Vikings -1.0 (pre Cousins injury)
Target Range: Vikings +3.0 or better

The Lions seemingly got their mojo back last week, steamrolling the Broncos 42-17. Jared Goff threw five touchdown passes, and they limited the Broncos to just 287 yards of total offense. Overall, it was a complete performance.

Still, questions remain about Lions defense. They’re 27th in EPA/play since Week 7 and are still without some key contributors on that side of the ball. They did shift some things around in their secondary last week – which could help – but only time will tell if that makes a difference.

Sep 10, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings safety Harrison Smith (22) warms up before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Meanwhile, the Vikings defense has been playing at a very high level. They’re sixth in EPA/play over the same time frame, and they’ve graded out well against the run and the pass.

The offense is the more significant question mark, but they rolled up 424 yards with Nick Mullens under center last week vs. the Bengals. Mullens is a major wild card. He’s good for at least one interception in basically every game, but he’s also proven he can move the ball. He’s going to make some head-scratching decisions, but he’s also going to make some throws that Joshua Dobbs simply can’t.

I was fortunate enough to grab the Vikings at +3.5 earlier this week, but I still think they’re viable at +3.0. This spot feels similar to the Lions-Bears contest in Week 14, where the Bears secured an outright win as small divisional underdogs.

You can tail the Vikings at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win after you sign up below!

Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins Under 50.0 (-105; DraftKings)

Opening Total: 48.5
Target Range: Under 49.5 or better

We’ve got a few marquee contests this week, including a matchup between the Cowboys and Dolphins. These squads are battling for the No. 1 seeds in their respective conferences, although both are long shots to ultimately get there. Still, these are both top-five teams in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings, so it should be a good one.

Most of the attention on Miami this season has been on their offense, but they have quietly taken a significant step forward on defense of late. Since getting Jalen Ramsey back from injury in Week 8, the Dolphins are first in the league in EPA/play defensively. They’ve allowed 17 points or fewer in five of Ramsey’s seven contests, so they’re a far cry from the unit that started the year allowing 34 points to the Chargers.

On the other side, the Cowboys are known for their defense. They have one of the best defensive players in the league in Micah Parsons, and the rest of their stop unit is pretty good, too. They’re fifth in PFF defensive grade, including No. 2 in pass-rushing.

The pros clearly believe in the defenses in this spot, with the under getting 83% of the dollars on just 42% of the bets. The under has gone 20-12 in games with a closing total of at least 48 points this season, and it’s 9-2 in games that close at 50.0 or higher. This is simply too many points for how teams play in 2023.

You can tail the under at DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $5!

Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers Over 46.5 (-115; FanDuel)

Opening Total: 45.0
Target Range: Over 47.0 or better

While the sharps like the under in Miami, they are looking for points in San Francisco. That’s hardly a surprise: The 49ers have been an offensive juggernaut this season, particularly since getting Deebo Samuel back in the lineup in Week 10. They’ve averaged 34.5 points over their past six contests, and they’ve scored at least 27 points in all six games.

They’ll have their hands full against the Ravens, but I don’t think there’s any way to stop this unit when fully healthy. They have too much talent, and Kyle Shanahan is pushing the right buttons at the right times.

The Ravens offense has also been rolling after a quiet start to the year. It took some time to adjust to Todd Monken’s offensive system, but they’re third in EPA/play since Week 7. The 49ers and Cowboys are the only units that have been better, with Lamar Jackson and the potent rushing attack leading the way.

If the 49ers’ defense does have a flaw, it’s against the run. It’s the perfect matchup for the Ravens in that regard, so both offenses should be able to put up points. 47.0 is a key number for total betting, so getting the over on 47.0 or lower makes a lot of sense.

You can tail the over at FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you place your first bet of just $5 or more after signing up below!

NFL Sharp Report. Identifying Week 16 Line Movement

Los Angeles Chargers (+12.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (-105; FanDuel)

Washington Commanders (+3.0) at New York Jets (-110; Caesars)

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Minnesota Vikings (+3.0) vs. Detroit Lions (-110; BetMGM)

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Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins Under 50.0 (-105; DraftKings)

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Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers Over 46.5 (-115; FanDuel)

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