NFL Week 16 Early Betting Lines. Identifying Market Adjustments.
Matt LaMarca identifies five separate Week 16 games where the early betting lines are worth attacking, including the Bills and Chargers game, Texans and Browns, and more.
In NFL betting, getting the right number can be almost more important than getting the right teams. If you’re constantly getting the worst numbers — i.e., getting negative closing line value (CLV) — it can be the difference between winning and losing on a handful of bets each season.
The best way to attack the NFL market is early in the week, before the sharps have had a chance to grab all the value for themselves.
That’s the goal of this piece — to highlight the bets you should be locking in early, gobbling up as much sweet, sweet CLV as possible.
Let’s take a look at five games that have my eye for Week 16.
Buffalo Bills (-13.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
- Current Line: Bills -13.5 (-110; FanDuel)
- Target Range: Bills -13.5 or better
Has there ever been a more obvious “sell high” spot than the Bills on the road against the Chargers? Buffalo is coming off back-to-back season-savings wins over the Chiefs and Cowboys, putting them right back in the thick of the crowded AFC Wild Card hunt.
Conversely, the Chargers are coming off one of the most humiliating losses in recent memory. They surrendered 63 points to the equally hapless Raiders, with the team racking up five turnovers in a 42-point defeat.
Dec 14, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Easton Stick (2) warms up before the game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
Is Easton Stick going to look that hopeless in his second career start? I don’t think so. He wasn’t that terrible when he was actually able to throw – he averaged 8.5 adjusted yards per attempt, albeit with a lot of work coming in garbage time – and the team won’t lose four fumbles every week.
Additionally, teams coming off losses of at least 35 points are 75-44-6 ATS dating back to 2005.
Add it all up, and this feels like the perfect storm to buy low on the Chargers and sell high on the Bills.
So, naturally, I’m going in the opposite direction.
I still think the Bills are one of the five best teams in football. Now that they’ve started to play like it, I’m not in a rush to jump off board.
It’s not like this game is one that the Bills can afford to overlook, either. Buffalo would still be out of the playoffs if they started today, so they must treat every game like a must-win.
This number has already moved to 14.0 at some locations, so I am making sure to lock in the 13.5 early. Even if the line moves against us – and I could see the sharps liking the Chargers – it’s not the end of the world. The difference between 13.5 and 14.0 is significantly more important than the difference between 13.5 and 12.0.
You can tail the Bills at FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you sign up and place your first $5 bet or more below!
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Houston Texans (-2.0) vs. Cleveland Browns
- Current Line: Texans -2.0 (-110; Caesars)
- Target Range: Texans -2.5 or better
Both of these teams are coming off improbable wins in Week 15. The Texans managed to upset the Titans despite missing Rookie of the Year frontrunner C.J. Stroud, two of their top receivers, and their top edge rusher in Will Anderson Jr.
Somehow, the Browns were in even worse injury shape:
The Browns fell into a 10-point fourth-quarter hole against the Bears, but Joe Flacco and company were able to record the comeback win. They outgained Chicago by more than 140 yards, so it’s hard to call that comeback undeserved.
Still, what the Browns are doing with Flacco feels a bit fluky. He threw three interceptions on Sunday, and he’s been one of the worst starters at the position since coming off the couch three weeks ago. He’s been better than most anticipated, but don’t confuse that with being good.
The Browns feel due for some regression, and I expect the Texans to be significantly healthier this week. Stroud will almost assuredly clear the concussion protocol, while Nico Collins could suit up at receiver. If that happens, I think there’s a good chance this number moves towards three, so I want to lock them in early.
You can tail the Texans at Caesars Sportsbook, where you can get your first bet of up to $1,000 on the house when you sign up for a new account below!
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Pittsburgh Steelers ML (+116) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
- Current Line: Steelers ML (+116; FanDuel)
- Target Range: Steelers +105 or better
Let’s talk about another team that has been fortunate recently – the Bengals. Jake Browning’s metrics have been fantastic since taking over for Joe Burrow, but much of it has been done with smoke and mirrors. He’s relying heavily on his receivers to do most of the work, be it with yards after the catch or by winning 50/50 balls:
They’re now riding a three-game winning streak, but two of those wins have come in overtime. The fact that they’ve kept their season alive is a great story, but it’s the type of thing that leads to becoming overvalued by the public.
On the other side, the Steelers are coming off an embarrassing loss vs. the Colts. Mitch Trubisky has looked awful in relief of Kenny Pickett, but the good news is that Pickett could be back in the lineup vs. the Bengals.
This is also an outstanding situational spot for the Steelers. Mike Tomlin has been an extremely profitable coach to back as a home underdog, going 16-10-0 straight up. That’s good for a +56.5% return on investment.
Tomlin has also historically been a great coach to back off a loss, going 55-41-0 ATS during the regular season.
I’ve argued that the Steelers have been overvalued for much of the season, but I disagree with them being home underdogs vs. Cincinnati. Let’s take advantage before the market adjusts.
Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) vs. Detroit Lions
- Current Line: Vikings +3.5 (-110; DraftKings)
- Target Range: Vikings +3.5 or better
Will last Saturday be known as the day the Lions got their groove back? It’s possible. They rolled up 448 yards and 42 points against a tough Broncos defense and allowed just 287 yards. Their defense has been a major Achilles heel of late, so it was an encouraging performance from a struggling unit.
Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (87) makes a catch for a touchdown against Denver Broncos safety P.J. Locke (6) during the second half at Ford Field in Detroit on Saturday, Dec. 16, 2023.
That said, I’m going to need to see more before I’m officially back in.
The Vikings are on their fourth starting QB of the season in Nick Mullens, who is the definition of a rollercoaster at the position. He makes some mind-boggling decisions, which is not exactly what you’re looking for at signal-caller.
Still, he finished with 303 yards and two touchdowns, so he was ultimately effective. He did enough to secure Vikings’ backers a cover, even if they couldn’t hold on for the outright win.
The Vikings are fourth in EPA/play defensively since Week 8, so they’ve been excellent on that side of the ball. As long as Mullens doesn’t sabotage this team with turnovers – easier said than done – I don’t think the gap between these two squads is particularly large. This number has already dipped to 3.0 at some locations, and just like we saw last week with the Vikings, getting the hook could be crucial.
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Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers Over 45.5
- Current Total: 45.5 (-110; FanDuel)
- Target Range: Over 46.0 or better
We’ve had a lot of “Game of the Year” candidates over the past few months, but I don’t think any of them can measure up to this one. These are the two best teams in football – by my calculations and per the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings – and they’re both playing for the top seed in their respective contests. This game being played on Christmas evening is a gift we all can truly enjoy.
I’m writing this as the Ravens are playing on Sunday Night Football against the Jaguars, and how that game shakes out will ultimately impact how I view the spread. However, one thing I’m sure of is that I like the over on 45.5.
The sharps were all over the over with the 49ers in Week 15, and San Francisco did not disappoint. The 49ers had 45 points of their own and combined for 74 total points with the Cardinals.
The 49ers may have been known as a defensive juggernaut in the past, but it’s their offense making headlines now. Brock Purdy is the betting favorite for the MVP, ranking first in just about every quarterback efficiency metric of note. The team is first in EPA/play by a wide margin on offense, and they’ve scored at least 27 points in six straight games.
Meanwhile, the Ravens’ offense has progressed over the second half of the season, while their defense has started to show some signs of slippage. They’re the perfect opponent to keep up with the 49ers in a shootout, so I expect this number to rise throughout the week.
Plus – it’s Christmas. Does anyone want to spend their Christmas evening sweating out an under? The over is worth considering here simply for the life EV.
