NFL Sharp Report. Identifying Week 9 Line Movement
Matt LaMarca highlights where sharp money is affecting the Week 9 NFL betting slate and advises bettors on how to approach these games.
There are tons of resources available to help you make more informed decisions, including our suite of Betting Tools at Fantasy Life.
One of my favorite things to look at is the betting percentage splits.
You can see the breakdown of the number of tickets and money coming in on each side and the total, indicating where the sharp money is landing.
For example, if a team gets 50% of the spread bets but 80% of the dollars, the large wagers – which tend to come from professional bettors – are siding with them.
The public money typically comes in smaller increments, so the other side can have the same number of tickets at a significantly lower handle.
Essentially, this allows us to take a peak at the smart kid’s homework before the start of class.
Sharp bettors are respected for a reason: they win more than they lose. It would be foolish not to take their opinions into account.
Week 8 wasn’t a great one for the sharps, with the plays in this article going just 1-3-1. Still, these plays are now 22-16-2 for the year, putting us comfortably in the black.
Let’s dive into five games the pros are taking a stand on for NFL Week 9.
Houston Texans (-2.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-115; BetMGM)
- Opening Line: Texans -2.5
- Current Line: Texans -2.5
It’s no secret that I’m fond of the Texans. I like C.J. Stroud, I like DeMeco Ryans, and I like how hard they play. It’s become a bit of a running joke around the Fantasy Life office:
The good news is, I’m not alone on the Texans this week.
Houston has been a preferred target for the sharps, driving this number to three across most of the industry. That said, you can still find a -2.5 at BetMGM. Three is easily the most essential key number in football, so that’s a huge deal.
The Texans did not play their best game last week vs. the Panthers, but they’ve been a solid team for most of the year. They’re 11th in scoring differential and 16th in yardage differential, so they’re capable of keeping up with most opponents on the field and the scoreboard.
The same cannot be said of the Bucs.
They started the year promising, with Baker Mayfield looking like a successful reformation project at quarterback. Unfortunately, he’s been unable to keep that pace going.
Through the first four weeks, Mayfield was the No. 5 quarterback in EPA + CPOE composite. Over the past four weeks, he’s slipped to No. 24. He’s averaged just 5.69 adjusted yards per attempt (A/YA) over his past three games, and the Bucs have lost all three contests.
It’s early in the Stroud/Ryans era, but they’re 2-1 ATS following a loss so far this season. I like their chances of extending that record to 3-1 on Sunday. Getting the Texans at -2.5 is ideal, but I’d still be willing to play them up to -3.0 (-110).
You can tail the Texans at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to start betting today:
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Carolina Panthers (+2.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (-108; FanDuel)
- Opening Line: Panthers -2.5
- Current Line: Panthers +2.5
Bryce Young is coming off his best game as a professional last week vs. the Texans. He completed 71% of his passes for 235 yards and a score, earning the Panthers their first win of the season.
That’s not exactly a huge shock. The Panthers had their bye in Week 7, and rookie quarterbacks tend to start the season slowly. Entering this season, rookie quarterbacks over the past five years have averaged -0.11 EPA/attempt and a 40% Success Rate in the first four weeks. They’ve also thrown as many touchdown passes as interceptions (46). Those QBs posted significantly better stats towards the end of their rookie campaign, so we should expect Young to continue progressing as he gets more acclimated to the professional game.
Oct 29, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers wide receiver Adam Thielen (19) and quarterback Bryce Young (9) react in the second quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
The best thing the Panthers have going for them is the matchup. The Colts have been an absolute disaster defensively of late. They allowed 39 points to P.J. Walker and the Browns in Week 7, and they followed that up with 38 points allowed to the Saints in Week 8. Neither of those offenses would be classified as explosive, but the Colts made them look spectacular.
On the other side, the Panthers are a team that is poised for some improvement defensively. They’re 30th in points per game allowed, but they’re 12th in yards per game. That suggests a defense that has been more unlucky than terrible.
I would love to see this number get to three, but with the sharps all over the Panthers, I doubt that happens. Carolina has received 77% of the dollars on 59% of the bets (per the Action Network), so I think it’s more likely this number goes down than up. Regardless, I’ll likely have a play on Carolina entered in the NFL Bet Tracker before kickoff.
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Dallas Cowboys (+3.0) at Philadelphia Eagles (-105; FanDuel)
- Opening Line: Cowboys +3.0
- Current Line: Cowboys +3.0
This is a game that Matthew Freedman and I discussed on the Early Lines podcast this Monday:
Freedman has already locked in a play on the Cowboys based on the fact that he has both teams rated pretty evenly on a neutral field. Home-field advantage is worth less now than ever, so getting three points on the road with two even teams is a good value.
There’s also been some sharp action tracked on the Cowboys at +3.0, and the fact that this number has held firm at 3.0 is pretty telling. The Eagles have received 63% of the betting tickets, but the margin in terms of dollars is more evenly split.
Historically, taking the underdog in NFC East showdowns has been a profitable endeavor. They’re 23-15-2 ATS since the start of the 2020 season, including 2-1-1 so far this season. I would argue that figure should be 3-1 since the Commanders deserved better than a push against the Eagles last week.
This is another game where I don’t see the number moving before kickoff, but if it does move, it’s going to 2.5 instead of 3.5. I’m happy to grab the Cowboys at the current number to avoid potentially missing out.
You can tail the Cowboys at FanDuel, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you place a first bet of $5 or more after signing up below.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins Under 50.5 (-110; Caesars)
- Opening Total: 51.5
- Current Total: 50.5
This was the first bet I locked in this week, and this number is down to 49.5 at certain locations. Simply put – 50.5 is too many points for the NFL in 2023. There have been only 10 games with a closing total of 49.0 or higher this season, and the under is an outstanding 8-2 in those contests.
The Chiefs have also morphed into an under machine in 2023. They have the best defense they’ve ever had with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, while their offense isn’t nearly as explosive as it has been in years past. They’re merely 12th in points per game this season after ranking in the top six in each of the six previous seasons. That includes finishing as the No. 1 scoring offense last season.
Add it all up, and the Chiefs are 6-2 to the under so far this season.
Oct 12, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones (95) runs on field against the Denver Broncos prior to a game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Meanwhile, the Dolphins’ offense has gotten plenty of praise, but they’ve feasted on inferior opponents. They averaged 44.75 points and 552.5 yards against the Chargers, Broncos, Giants, and Panthers, but those marks have dipped to 23.0 and 354 in four games against the Bills, Eagles, and Patriots (twice). The Chiefs are far closer to the latter group from a defensive standpoint than the former.
The Dolphins should also improve defensively after adding Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard back into their lineup. Ramsey suited up for the first time all season in Week 8, while Howard could return this week vs. the Chiefs.
Add in an earlier start time than usual in Germany, and this contest screams under. It’s been one of the sharpest targets of the week, and I’m willing to play it at anything better than 48.5.
New York Jets vs. Los Angeles Chargers Under 40.0 (-110; Caesars)
- Opening Total: 43.0
- Current Total: 40.0
The Chargers are coming off a tremendous offensive showing last week vs. the Bears, but they’ll face a significant step up in competition vs. the Jets. New York had a slow start defensively this season, but they’ve been every bit as good as expected of late. They’re first in EPA/play against since Week 5, and they’ve been extremely tough to pass against. They’re first in dropback EPA over that time frame by a wide margin, and they’re also first in dropback Success Rate.
That’s not a great matchup for the Chargers. They’ve struggled to move the ball on the ground this season, ranking 26th in rushing EPA, so they need to throw the ball to be successful. It’s not a huge shock that in Justin Herbert’s three worst games by A/YA, the team has averaged less than 20 points per game.
If this game goes over, most of the scoring will have to come from LA. The Jets’ offense remains one of the worst in football with Zach Wilson under center, ranking 31st in EPA/play.
Finally, unders in primetime games have absolutely smashed this season. After another under hit on Thursday Night Football, unders in night games have moved to 20-7 through the first eight-plus weeks. Since the start of the 2019 season, they’re 145-91-3. That’s good for a +18.0% return on investment.
I’m not saying you should bet the under in every primetime game… but it’s not the worst idea in the world. It’s definitely viable whenever Wilson is involved. This number has already dipped by three full points, and I expect it to get even lower before kickoff. It’s a great bet to lock in now.
