NHL Best Bets for February 15th. Top Picks for Thursday's 12-game slate.

Football is done but there are other sports we can focus on until it returns.

Hockey has a heavy 12-game slate for us to chew on this Thursday with lots of opportunity to get some bets in.

Let’s do that hockey!

Panthers at Sabres under 6.5 goals (-110, DraftKings)

Play to: 6.5 (-125)

The Sabres are coming off a seven-goal performance but at least a small letdown seems inevitable tonight. They have been a Jekyll and Hyde team most of this season and had managed just two goals in their first two home games before catching the Kings wildly off-guard.

I doubt that the Panthers will make the same mistake the Sabres did in this spot and in the Panthers the Sabres have a team that is through and through, one of the toughest to generate chances against in the league. They have a fully healthy defense with Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad now both healthy and have ceded the 5th fewest high danger scoring chances against for the year.

The Panthers themselves are coming off a game in Pittsburgh last night so while they will still feature one of the deepest forward groups in the game they will be coming in on tired legs and perhaps happy to attempt to grind out a close win.

The trends also suggest that these two teams, when they meet are wary of each other's scoring prowess and tend to play a little more cautiously than we’d expect. In the last three meetings between these two squads, the under is 3-0 and they have averaged just 4.0 goals a game, combined.

Finally, while trends can change as quickly as they form, both of Florida and Buffalo have been heavy under teams all season. The Panthers are an incredible 19-9 to the under on the road while the Sabres are a nearly as good 18-9 to the under at home. The Panthers may be inclined to start backup Anthony Stolarz in this spot, but Stolarz has been great this season posting a .917 save % on the season and allowed just goals in his first start after the all-star break.

Either way you slice it, looking to the under here looks like a nice play in that we get to follow some strong long-term trends and still be contrarian by fading the recent outburst of the enigmatic Sabres.

You can tail the under at DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in No Sweat bets when you sign up below!

Oilers to win in regulation (-115, bet365)

Play to: -120

I feel like we should be pretty happy to be getting the Oilers at this number. The Blues have had a nice run but they are a team that has felt like they were playing above their pay grade for a while. They rank just 29th in team xGF% and were outshot badly in their last game against Toronto who is a far superior 5v5 squad and only allowed the Blues 15 shots on net.

While this game is in St. Louis, both teams are on just one day of rest and the Blues will face an even stronger 5v5 team tonight in the Oilers who lead the league in expected goals and xGF% and have the third-best powerplay in the league now to boot. The Oilers dropped their last game on the road 4-0 to the Kings but are also coming off an 8-4 home win against the Red Wings where they scored eight even-strength goals.

In short, this team is flying and has perhaps the best depth at forward of any team in the Connor McDavid era. Additionally, goalie Stuart Skinner has been lock-down since Edmonton made a coaching change posting save %’s of .920 or better in six of his last seven road starts.

As mentioned, the Blues just feel inflated at these prices. They have won seven of their last nine games but three of those were OT wins and their last game was telling given how badly they got outshot and out-chanced. While you could think about taking this a step further and going with the Oilers puckline (+125, bet365) the regulation line is more than playable at -115.

This is one that feels likely to move towards Edmonton as the day goes forward but with how the Blues have done for bettors of late they may still get some bets in this spot and keep the line under -130 by puck drop.

You can tail the Oilers at bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $1 or more!

Ryan O’Reilly under 0.5 points (+125, bet365)

Play to: +115

The Predators take on a Stars team tonight who have played solid hockey since the all-star break.

Dallas has played four games since the start of February allowing less than two goals against in three of them. In their last game they held the Hurricanes – ranked third in xGF% – to just two goals.

Feb 13, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Nashville Predators center Ryan O'Reilly (90) stands with the puck behind the net against the New Jersey Devils during the first period at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

O’Reilly himself plays a ton of minutes for the Predators but he’s not exactly a high volume scorer. The two-way forward has averaged 0.84 points per game this year and has gone pointless in five of his last eight games. Taking it a step further we see his point production has really slipped since the start of January as he’s gone pointless in eight of his last 13 games, overall.

While O’Reilly’s role and ice time makes him a somewhat dangerous fade, the fact is he’s in a poor matchup tonight against both a sharp goalie in Jake Oettinger (likely starter) and a team with a great two-way centre in Roope Hintz. When you add in the very generous +125 odds, (44.4% implied probability) then the under starts to look very appealing.

Everything considered, I also like the Stars in this matchup and seeing them take down another low scoring, close game against a division rival wouldn’t be overly shocking. In that scenario, Nashville likely isn’t putting up more than a couple goals giving O’Reilly a great chance of hitting this under for us.

Alex Tuch (Sabres) under 0.5 points (+120, DraftKings)

Play to: +110

This feels like a great price. Tuch is a solid player but he’s currently playing a third-line role and being used less as a primary power-play option. He’s still getting solid minutes but his point production this season has come from last year (1.06 in 2022-23 vs 0.8 in 2023-24).

Despite coming off a two-point performance in his last outing, Tuch has gone pointless in four of his last seven games. This trend of scoring in bunches (and remaining off the scoreboard for longer patches) hasn’t just been a recent one either. He’s only recorded points in eight of his last 18 games as well.

This bet looks solid enough to take based on that trend and his current role alone but the Panthers are also an advantageous opponent for an under. They don’t allow a ton of high-danger chances and have given up just 2.5 goals per game this year (second-best in the league).

Considering the Sabres were struggling to score before their recent 7 goal outburst, I don’t mind fading them here with a Tuch under which was available at very nice +120 odds on open.