NHL Best Bets for February 29th. Top Picks for Thursday's slate.
Geoff Ulrich outlines his favorite bets for Thursday's NHL slate, including moneylines, props, and more to target.
As always, the NHL has a big Thursday slate for us with lots of options to choose from for betting. Tons of important games, with playoff implications, are on tap along with some lopsided matchups that could provide great opportunities for player props.
The NHL best bets for Thursday, February 29 are below.
Sabres at Lightning over 6.5 (+104, FanDuel)
- Play to: -105
The Sabres have been a clear under team over the past month or so. Seven of their last eight games have seen five or fewer goals scored and they are coming off a closely fought 3-2 loss to the Panthers two days ago.
So why go over on this 6.5 total?
Simply put, the opponent.
The Lightning at home have been far better at generating goals and come into this game with a 17-12 record to the over on the season (while at home). The last two times these teams have played, in Tampa, they combined for 8 and 11 goals, respectively, with the Lightning generating 5 goals on each occasion.
The Sabres have got some great goaltending of late from Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen but he is likely due for some regression soon and has a poor record against Tampa Bay with a 4.24 GAA in three career starts against them.
The Lightning would be the preferred side for me if taking a moneyline play but with the over sitting at +100 or better I’d rather go that route. Tampa’s last four opponents at home have all scored three or more goals and the Sabres top forwards have been playing well of late and generating solid chances.
Considering some of the shootouts we’ve seen in the Lightning's last few home outings, it’s also a spot where you could consider ladder-betting the over through 7.5 and 8.5 goals as well.
You can tail the over on FanDuel, where you can get up to $150 in bonus bets when you place your first $5 bet below:
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Penguins at Kraken under 6.0 goals (-114, FanDuel)
- Play to: -120
On the flip side to the Sabres and Lightning, we have the Penguins and Kraken, two teams who don’t give up a ton of scoring chances and prefer to play a lockdown style of hockey that often leads to lower-scoring games.
Both Seattle and Pittsburgh are top 10 in high-danger scoring against and have trended as solid under teams all season. The Penguins are particularly tight when they get on the road, having gone 16-11 to the under this season in away games, and three of their last four road outings have seen the total stay under 6 goals.
From a matchup perspective, both teams are solid 5v5 but neither carries an above-average average power-play which will make goals hard to come by assuming the goaltenders show up. Tristan Jarry stopped 22 shots for a shutout in his only career start against the Kraken and is coming off a solid road start in Vancouver where he posted a .914 save%.
The other nice surprise for the under going into this game is the recent form of Philipp Grubauer who has a .929 save% across three starts in February.
While the 6.0 is playable down to -120 you could even think about dropping down and playing this under 5.5 if you’d rather get better prices.
Stars to win in regulation vs. Jets (+130, bet365)
- Play to: +125
The Stars are coming off a humiliating road loss to the Avalanche where they got beat 5-1 and were soundly outplayed for the last 40 minutes. It was a disappointing effort but the Stars now head home after a one-game road trip and should be eager to rebound quickly against the Jets.
The team got some good news yesterday as well as they acquired Chris Tanev from the Flames, a defenseman who was widely recognized as one of the best available players on the trade market. That should send a message to the team and provide some inspiration tonight for the players to help justify the moves made by management.
From a matchup perspective, the Stars have generally been solid targets at home when available at these kinds of prices. They’re 17-8 straight up on the season and face a Jets team who have been winning of late but hardly in dominant fashion. They got pushed to their limit by the Coyotes a couple of games ago and then edged out a win against the Blues on Tuesday.
Overall, they have been playing softer teams very close of late and the Stars will represent a big step up over their last five opponents. They were also mediocre in their last two road games losing 6-3 to Calgary and needing OT to take down the lowly Blackhawks.
While they are playable at -135 on the straight moneyline I like taking a better number on the 60-minute line with Dallas. Winnipeg looks due for some regression in the W-L column and now that they're playing a quality team they seem likely to deliver a straight L for us tonight.
You can tail the Stars at bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up and place your first bet of just $1:
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Matthew Tkachuk anytime goal (+155, FanDuel)
- Play to: +140
Tkachuk started the season slowly from a goal-scoring perspective but he’s come on strong of late.
The former Flame has at least one goal in seven of his last 12 starts (58% hit rate) and his shooting percentage has finally crept up over the 10% mark. That’s still below his career average but certainly more in the realm of what we should expect from him on a season-to-season basis.
Despite the hot stretch, and the fact he’s been shooting the puck more of late (13 shots in the last three games), we can still get great prices on his anytime goal prop tonight against one of the weakest teams in the league in Montreal.
The Canadiens are coming off a win against Arizona but it was hardly a standout performance as the Canadiens got outshot nearly 2-1 and had to hang on for dear life at the end of the game to close things out.
It’s worth mentioning that for his career, Tkachuk has absolutely destroyed the Canadiens, scoring eight times over his last six meetings with Montreal. With the implied probability on his anytime goal prop sitting around 39% (+155), this seems like an apt time to target this bet and see if Tkachuk can’t keep this recent hot stretch going.
Anders Lee over 2.5 SOG (+110, DraftKings)
- Play to: +100
The Red Wings are winning games but they are generally doing it in backward fashion by allowing a ton of shots on the net every night.
Detroit ranks near the bottom of the league in shots allowed (7th most allowed per game) and takes on an Islanders squad who come into this game well-rested having last played on Monday.
While he’s not been as reliable a shot producer this season, Anders Lee is still a player who gets a lot of quality offensive zone starts for the Islanders and has 20+ shifts in four of his last five games.
From a bigger-picture perspective, he’s also gone over on this prop in three of his last five starts (including a game with five shots against the Rangers) and has averaged 4.66 shots on net against Detroit in his last three starts against them (he’s also gone over 2.5 shots on net in seven of 10 career meetings with Detroit).
The +110 looks a little bigger than it should be in this spot given both Detroit’s tendencies and the more consistent usage and play we have seen from Lee of late.
You can tail Lee on DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in No Sweat Bets when you create your new account below:
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Alex DeBrincat SOG ladder bet
This game certainly feels like it could be fairly wide open as both teams are near the bottom of the league in terms of how they defend against opposing shooters. The Islanders are particularly poor on the road where they have allowed 35.29 shots per game this season which is the second-worst mark in the league and trails only the Sharks.
As for DeBrincat, he’s finally started to shoot the puck with more consistency. He was a near lock for 3+ SOG a game while in Chicago but his shots dipped to begin this season and he went through a nasty spell where he was regularly ending games with under 3 SOG. That’s changed recently as the winger has now landed 4 or more SOG in three of his last four outings. Coincidentally, his tendency to shoot more has also meant more goals (four goals in three games)…funny how that works.
You could certainly target him in the anytime goal department tonight, where he’s as big as +190 at bet365, but I think the main story is that his volume has increased, which should translate to more games that end with 4+ SOG in the statline.
With his odds still hovering in the +400 range to hit 5+ SOG – a figure he reached in his last outing – laddering him from 4 to 6 SOG tonight seems like a solid way to get exposure to his upside and take advantage of the plus matchup.