NHL Best Bets for March 14th. Top Picks for Thursday's Slate.

We have a monster 12-game slate in the NHL tonight and it’s one that is not short on betting opportunities. One theme that’s taken hold in the league since the trade deadline is the huge rift forming between the haves and have-nots.

Teams that sold off at the deadline are starting to implode and that’s been reflected in favorites in the NHL outperforming of late. Over the last four nights, favorites have gone 15-7 straight up with big favorites like the Oilers last night (who were -300) coming through consistently for bettors of late.

I’ve broken down a few spots to take advantage of this trend below along with some props for the slate as well.

Minnesota Wild/Pittsburgh Penguins ML parlay (-119, DraftKings)

Play to: -130

Just like we did on Tuesday, I think there is some value in combining these shorter favorites tonight on the moneyline. The Wild have been rolling of late and were able to douse a somewhat frisky Coyotes team in their last outing. Minnesota is 4-1 SU in their last five home games with the only loss coming in a tight 3-2 game to the Hurricanes. Minnesota ranks 4th in xGF% at 5v5, and have a huge advantage on the Ducks in that regard who have been outscored 19-5 over their last three games. Anaheim is fielding a very short lineup up front after the trade deadline and it's starting to show in the results. The odds on Minnesota likely aren’t short enough.

The Sharks showed some moxy in keeping the game close against the Flyers the last time out but they still allowed 41 shots on net and likely could have been blown out. San Jose is just 6-22 SU on the road this year and the Penguins are a veteran team who, from a mere pride perspective, should be up for this game. Pittsburgh has been shutout at home in their last two home games but are still 3-2 SU at home over their last five starts in Pittsburgh. Even after the deadline the Penguins have a far deeper lineup and I’d not be shocked to see the Penguins take out a lot of their frustrations tonight against a weak opponent in a romp kind of win.

Either way, favorites in the NHL are 15-7 SU over the last four slates and large favorites have been dominating. With that in mind, I like pairing these two home favorites together and looking for that trend to continue on Thursday.

Shea Theordore over 0.5 points (-105, BetMGM)

Play to: -115

The Golden Knights blueliner has been on a tear of late. He has points in eight of the last 10 games but has scored 12 points total over that span. That alone makes this over on Theodore appealing tonight, especially at the current price (he’s as long as -105 on BetMGM). However, with D Alec Martinez out and the Golden Knights facing the Flames, the line looks even more appealing than usual.

Calgary has allowed 18 goals over their last three games and will be forced to start either rookie Dustin Wolf (who has struggled in limited starts) or Dan Vlader, who got pulled in his last game. Calgary is another team whose trade deadline fire sales has finally caught up with their lineup as they’ve dropped four of their last five and been outshot badly in all of those losses as well.

Theordore has played over 24 minutes in each of his last two games and with the Golden Knights trying to hold down the last playoff spot (and injuries on the backend affecting Vegas’ depth) it’s hard to see him not getting a ton of ice once again this Thursday.

Stars vs. Devils under 6.5 goals (-115, DraftKings)

Play to: -120

Both of these teams have solid defensive structures that should make this a somewhat tighter, lower scoring affair. Despite having issues getting wins, the Devils have been solid at limiting the opposing team's chances. They’ve been above average in terms of limiting high danger scoring chances all season but have suffered from a lack of scoring and some questionable goaltending, especially of late. Still, four of their last five games have seen six or less goals scored (total) and they’ve trended towards playing a tighter defensive structure since their coaching switch, making them a potentially great under target right now.

The Stars have been a tough opponent all season for opposing offenses, allowing the fifth-fewest high-danger scoring chances against this year. While they have trended towards being an over target at home this season they’ve been extremely tough to score on of late. Eight of their last 11 games overall have now seen six or fewer goals scored.

There is always the chance of a Devils breakdown and the Stars hitting this over by themselves, but with the defensive structures these two teams play, the under on the 6.5 total here has appeal. Expect a tighter game with the Devils attempting to limit chances as best they can and the Stars' tight defense likely to give the Devils recently anemic offense issues.

Seattle Kraken to win in regulation (+100, bet365)

Play to: -110

Sticking with the theme of backing favorites, this line on the Kraken seems more than fair today. The Capitals have gutted their lineup and their offense right now is basically just Alex Ovechkin and a bunch of young players who have been elevated to roles most of them are not ready for. Washington is also at a rest disadvantage in this game after getting absolutely pulverized by the Oilers last night and doesn’t have the shortest trip in the world to get to Seattle where they (an East-based team) will be playing in a late West Coast start time.

The Kraken are still a decent 5v5 team and while the power play did strike for the Capitals yesterday the Kraken’s penalty-kill is half-decent and they have received solid goaltending from both Philipp Grubauer and Joey Daccord of late. Maybe Washington shows some moxy after getting beaten down in their last game but in the vein of “not overthinking it” the more likely scenario here is that the Kraken, who desperately need wins to stay in the playoff race, boat race a thin Caps team who are just playing out the string.

Underdog 3-way NHL Pick’Em

Shea Theodore HIGHER than 0.5 points

See above…

Jonathan Marchessault HIGHER than 3.0 SOG

Marchessault comes into this game on a tear. He’s landed 13 SOG and five goals in his last two games alone and faces a Flames team giving up an inordinate amount of shots of late. This 3.0 line is also nice as it works well in a three-way pick’em. Marchessault’s odds to hit over 2.5 shots are hovering around -180 to -200 right now on many sportsbooks so we’re a pretty big favorite to at least get a push. However, the Flames' woes on defense and the fact the Golden Knights have some injuries up front make it likely we’ll see heavy usage from Marchessault again which should give him a better-than-usual chance of hitting the 4+ SOG mark.

Ryan Hartman HIGHER than 0.5 points

Hartman is another player who should benefit from some injuries on his team. With Joel Eriksson Ek out Hartman should slide into the number one center role for the Wild against a very weak Ducks squad tonight. Even with Eriksson Ek in the lineup, Hartman was playing well accumulating points in seven of his last 10 outings. The matchup and fact he’s now playing in a top-line role don’t seem to have been factored into this line at all as we are getting to take the HIGHER on 0.5 points for Hartman without having to take a payout discount of any kind on Underdog.

NHL Best Bets for March 14th. Top Picks for Thursday's Slate.

Minnesota Wild/Pittsburgh Penguins ML parlay (-119, DraftKings)

Shea Theordore over 0.5 points (-105, BetMGM)

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Stars vs. Devils under 6.5 goals (-115, DraftKings)

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Seattle Kraken to win in regulation (+100, bet365)

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Underdog 3-way NHL Pick’Em

Shea Theodore HIGHER than 0.5 points

Jonathan Marchessault HIGHER than 3.0 SOG

Ryan Hartman HIGHER than 0.5 points

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