NHL Best Bets for March 19th - Top Picks for Tuesday's Hockey Slate

We have a solid 13-game slate on tap for this Tuesday in the NHL. As I noted in the Betting Life newsletter on Monday, favorites have been taking care of business of late posting a 50-20 record (straight up) over the previous nine slates (before last night).

We didn’t have any strong teams as favorites in action yesterday, so I recommended fading the Flames at home (they lost 5-2), but tonight is a different story. We have lots of solid favorites on the slate for Tuesday, many of whom will be at home and going up against poor teams looking to play out the string.

With that caveat in mind, let’s get to the NHL bets for Tuesday, March 19.

Boston Bruins/Nashville Predators ML parlay (-122, DraftKings)

Play to: -130

The last two betting previews I’ve written here have included a “strong favorites parlay”, and both of those plays worked out, hitting wins at -106 and -119. Tonight’s parlay is a little shorter in price but it’s still a play that I think offers some decent value.

The Bruins have played well of late, posting a big 6-5 win in their last outing. They’re getting good production from secondary players like Jake DeBrusk of late and are now 5-2 over their last seven games – and have a 22-8 home record.

After a three-game win streak, the Senators got brought back to earth by the Hurricanes in their last start and now head to Boston, where they are 1-8 SU over their last eight visits.

The -218 on DraftKings for the Bruins moneyline likely offers some solid value on its own. Still, I don’t mind adding another big favorite to the play in the form of the Predators, who have recently outperformed many other Western playoff teams.

The Sharks (losers of four in a row on the road) are 6-25 away from San Jose this year and Nashville has won their last four home games, outscoring their opponents 19-6. It sounds crazy but the Preds should likely be north of -450 in this spot and any number under that offers a good opportunity to parlay with our primary pick of Boston.

Vegas Golden Knights win in regulation (+120, bet365)

Play to: +115

I’m going to stick with the favorites theme and recommend backing the Golden Knights today as well, who are currently set as -135 home favorites on the moneyline tonight. While that number is appealing enough for a team who is 21-10 straight up at home, it’s also logical in this spot to simply take the better number and just back Vegas to finish this game in 60 minutes.

While they haven’t been as consistent as they were last year in their cup-winning campaign the Golden Knights are still a much deeper team than they were a couple of weeks ago (after adding multiple bigger names at the deadline). They’ve also been solid in their last two home starts against Eastern Conference teams, downing Detroit and New Jersey in multiple-goal victories.

The Lightning are a scary opponent on paper right now as they have scored 18 times in their last three games and have a power play that can take over a game. That said, they allowed 50 shots to Florida (a game they barely hung on to win, despite the 6-3 final) and are just 15-16 on the road this year. If the Lightning shooters cool off even a touch this could be a fairly easy win for Vegas who has multiple teams breathing down their neck in the West and can’t afford a no-show against Tampa today.

Canucks vs. Sabres under 6.5 goals (-125, Fanduel)

Play to: -130

The Sabres played last night and landed six goals against what now appears like a very defeated Kraken squad. They’ll be back at it tonight in Vancouver, a short turnaround against a solid defensive club in the Canucks. The Canucks have allowed the 12th fewest high-danger scoring chances this season and the 5th fewest goals against, per game. While they are without starter Thatcher Demko, backup Casey DeSmith has posted a save% of .917 or better in three of his last four starts.

The Sabres have also been a solid under target when they are the road all season, going 20-14 to the under when outside of Buffalo – with six of their last seven road games producing game totals of 6.0 goals or less.

This number opened at 6.5 at many sportsbooks but has moved down to 6.0 (-105) at most places. Just given the tendencies of these two teams and the situation for Buffalo (back-to-back), I don’t mind paying some extra juice in this spot and getting the 6.5 total if you can (with the under 6.0 at -105 or better also being reasonable). It should be a tighter game with both teams potentially looking to limit chances with backup goalies in play.

Morgan Frost over 0.5 points (+130, DraftKings)

Play to: +115

Morgan Frost comes into this game having scored four points over his last three games. The 24-year-old is back centering a top line with Owen Tippett and Travis Konecny and saw over 17 minutes of ice his last time out, his highest usage in over two weeks.

While he’s had his dry spells this season Frost has been helped by a Flyers power play that has been more effective of late. He’s landed power-play points in two of his last three games and faces a Leafs team tonight that is just 22nd in penalty-kill efficiency. The centre picked up an assist against the Leafs last week, when these two teams met, and has been a far more effective point producer when at home, landing 22 points in 27 home games (0.81 ppg) vs just 13 in 30 road games (0.43 ppg).

Considering the over on 0.5 points for Frost is still available at well above +110 he looks like a great target in the prop department and someone to consider for pick’em tickets on Underdog (see below) or same game parlays as well.

Alex Nylander anytime goal (+280, Fanduel)

Play to: +250

Alex Nylander has produced nicely for bettors of late. Despite often going off well above +200 in the anytime goal market most nights, the former Penguin has managed to land a goal now in four of his last eight games and has seven goals in his last eight games, overall.

A lot of Nylander’s success is due to his role as the top-line RW (playing alongside Johnny Gaudreau), which also provides him plenty of power play time, and that role isn’t likely to change tonight against the Red Wings, who present the Swede with another great opportunity to land a goal and boost his stock for next year even further. The Red Wings are struggling mightily on defense allowing 4 or more goals now in seven of their last eight games and have received brutal goaltending from likely starter Alex Lyon, who has posted save%’s under .890 in his last five games.

Goal props can be highly variable but Nylander’s odds remain suppressed, even in these fantastic matchups, and he remains a good buy-low candidate as the market adjusts to his newfound goal-scoring prowess and increased role in Columbus.

Underdog 3-way NHL Pick'Em (6.12x payout)

Morgan Frost (Scorcher) OVER 0.5 points

See Above

Roman Josi HIGHER 0.5 points

With the Sharks in town, we have to think about multiple ways to get exposure to the Predators offense today. Obviously using their moneyline in a parlay is one way to (hopefully) benefit but the over on Josi’s point total on Underdog also looks like a solid opportunity. His multiplier for a HIGHER on 0.5 points is still solid at 0.9x and Josi has scored points in eight of his last 10 games.

Pavel Zacha HIGHER 0.5 points

I like targeting Zacha’s HIGHER as well as a last leg in our 3-way pick’em for today. The Bruins center has played some solid hockey of late, posting 10 points over his last seven games. He continues to see a ton of ice time (well over 20 minutes a game most nights) and takes on a Senators squad that has the third-worst penalty-kill in the league. With no reduction in multiplier to take the HIGHER, Zacha looks like a solid pick’em square to target for action today.

NHL Best Bets for March 19th - Top Picks for Tuesday's Hockey Slate

Boston Bruins/Nashville Predators ML parlay (-122, DraftKings)

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Vegas Golden Knights win in regulation (+120, bet365)

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Canucks vs. Sabres under 6.5 goals (-125, Fanduel)

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Morgan Frost over 0.5 points (+130, DraftKings)

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Alex Nylander anytime goal (+280, Fanduel)

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Underdog 3-way NHL Pick'Em (6.12x payout)

Morgan Frost (Scorcher) OVER 0.5 points

Roman Josi HIGHER 0.5 points

Pavel Zacha HIGHER 0.5 points

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