NHL Best Bets For March 21st - Top Picks For Thursday's Hockey Slate

It’s a busy week in sports. The NCAA tournament is on, golf is in full swing, and in the hockey world, we are now firmly in the home stretch of the regular season. In short, every night in the NHL from here to the end of the season should be cherished for us puck bettors and this Thursday is one of those big slates we can really sink our teeth into.

11 games are on the docket today and while we don’t have many big favorites to chase, the favorites have continued to crush for betting. Favorites on the 9-slates leading up to Monday had gone 50-20 straight-up, and yesterday's favorites went 3-0 straight-up with the Leafs, Stars, and Kings all covering the puckline and winning by a combined 18-5 margin.

This doesn’t mean there won’t be times to look at underdogs or fade the favorites (and we shouldn’t blindly be betting on any trend without more analysis to back it up) but it does mean we should be wary of taking underdogs right now who don’t carry a solid case for backing them.

With that caveat in mind, let’s get to the NHL bets for Thursday, March 21.

Canucks/Canadiens Under 6.5 (-120, DraftKings)

Play to: -135

I’m surprised this line opened at 6.5 today (instead of 6.0). Certainly, there is some risk that the Canadiens' goaltending blows up and the Canucks put up five to six goals themselves but the Vancouver offense has been anything but trustworthy of late. They’ve scored more than three goals just once in their last six games and have seen their power play dip out of the top 10 in the league in efficiency stats.

The good news for the Canucks – and the reason why this under at 6.5 is so appealing – is that even with starter Thatcher Demko banged up, they have still received solid goaltending from backup Casey DeSmith. DeSmith is coming off a solid night against Buffalo and has posted a save % of .917 or better in three of his last five games.

The Canadiens have been a mostly neutral team in the over/under trends this season but lately, they have trended much harder towards the under. Five of their last six games have seen five goals or less scored and their last road start saw them limit a high-powered Oilers offense to just two regulation-time goals.

As long as this total stays at 6.5, paying a little bit of extra juice to get the hook looks fine given the tendencies of these two teams.

Vegas Golden Knights win in regulation (-110, bet365)

Play to: -120

I played Vegas on the regulation line on Tuesday against Tampa Bay and while they couldn’t do enough to slow down the very hot Tampa Bay offense, they did have the game tied 3-3 in the third period with a chance to win. With that effort in mind, I think going back to them tonight in a very important game (they are all important when you are in the last playoff spot) is appropriate.

The line for Vegas to win in 60 minutes tonight isn’t much that much shorter than it was against Tampa Bay (-110 vs +120) and the Kraken are pretty much the polar opposite of the Lightning in terms of opponent. Seattle has played their way out of the playoff race over the last couple of weeks posting poor losses at home to non-playoff teams in Buffalo and Washington, and have seen their offense nearly dry up completely in terms of scoring chances.

The Kraken gave the Golden Knights a good run a couple of weeks ago, dropping a 5-4 OT decision at home, but Vegas has integrated several new players since that game and is much better at home, where they have a 21-11 straight-up record this season. We’ll reevaluate Vegas if they drop this one but for now, buying low on them at home after the Tampa Bay loss seems appropriate.

Tampa Bay Lightning at San Jose Sharks over 6.5 goals (-115, DraftKings)

Play to: -120

The Lightning’s offense has been on fire since the trade deadline. They head into this game having scored 30 goals in six games in March and have benefited from the added depth that deadline acquisitions Matt Dumba and Anthony Duclair have provided. Going back to their recent performances, all of the Lightning games in March have hit the over with their last game against the Golden Knights seeing eight goals scored between the two teams.

While you would often worry about the Sharks being able to score in a spot like this the Lightning haven’t exactly been the pillar of defensive responsibility on this run they are on either. Andrei Vasilevskiy has posted save percentages under .900 in three of his last five starts and remains well under his career averages in save % and GAA this season.

Additionally, while the Sharks have trended towards the under most of the year lately that trend has flipped recently. Three of their last four home games have seen nine or more goals scored and they are 3-1 to the over in their last four games as a team.

Given the Sharks' issues in net and poor special teams, it's hard to see this as the stop where Tampa Bay’s run stops. As long as there is a decent price left to be had, the over looks worth taking in this spot.

Carter Verhaeghe 4+ shots (+155, bet365)

Play to: +145

I like chasing Carter Verhaeghe on the alternate lines for shots on goal tonight against the Predators. Nashville is playing solid hockey but they are still just around average at allowing shots (30.1 per game) and are playing a Panthers team who is fourth in xGF% at 5v5. Verhaeghe’s line also looks like it offers good value at anything above +150. His current +155 odds to go for 4+ shots, offer us an implied value of 39%, but Verhaeghe has gone for 4+ shots in a game 30 times in 68 starts this year (44% hit rate).

The other factor here is that Matthew Tkachuk (questionable), who takes a lot of shots himself, may miss this game. If he does miss, Verhaeghe would likely get better opportunities to shoot the puck, especially on special teams. With this being a home game and Verhaeghe also having mildly positive home splits for shots, playing the alternate line at 4+ shots makes a lot of sense tonight, and he’s certainly a player you could think about ladder betting through 4+ (+155, bet365), 5+ (+340, bet365) and 6+ (+700, bet365) shots today as well.

Frank Vatrano anytime goal +170

Play to: +155

We don’t want to make a habit of chasing overs on point or goal props from players on bad teams. With that being said, Frank Vatrano is in a nice spot tonight against the Blackhawks and a player who is well overdue for a little bit of puck luck to fall his way.

The Ducks winger – whom many people thought would be traded at the deadline – has now gone six games without a point and sits squarely on 29 goals for the season. Vatrano has already set a career-high in goals scored in 2023-24, but you know that number 30 is a milestone that is weighing hard on him right now. He’s shot the puck 28 times now over his last six games and plays a Blackhawks team today that has allowed the most high-danger scoring chances in the league this season – and has allowed four or more goals in four of their last five road starts.

Given the odds, Vatrano’s a solid anytime goal prop to chase on this bigger slate.

Underdog 3-way NHL Pick'Em (9.0x payout)

Frank Vatrano (Scorcher) HIGHER 0.5 goals

See above

Carter Verhaeghe HIGHER 3.0 shots

See above

Anthony Duclair HIGHER 0.5 points

Just like we did on Tuesday, with the Sharks on the slate we want to explore ways to get more exposure to the Tampa Bay offense. Duclair has been a revelation for the Lightning since arriving, scoring points in four straight games. The script today couldn’t be much better with Duclair going up against his old team who just happens to be the worst defensive team in the league, and who may be starting a goalie who allowed eight goals his last time out.

NHL Best Bets For March 21st - Top Picks For Thursday's Hockey Slate

Canucks/Canadiens Under 6.5 (-120, DraftKings)

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Vegas Golden Knights win in regulation (-110, bet365)

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Tampa Bay Lightning at San Jose Sharks over 6.5 goals (-115, DraftKings)

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Carter Verhaeghe 4+ shots (+155, bet365)

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Frank Vatrano anytime goal +170

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Underdog 3-way NHL Pick'Em (9.0x payout)

Frank Vatrano (Scorcher) HIGHER 0.5 goals

Carter Verhaeghe HIGHER 3.0 shots

Anthony Duclair HIGHER 0.5 points

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