NHL Best Bets For March 28th

This Thursday gives us a dreamy 14-game slate in the NHL.

For betting purposes, there is something for everyone. The playoffs are getting closer and we have teams like the Red Wings, Capitals, and Blues all taking part in key matchups.

There are also plenty of cellar-dwelling teams in action like the Sharks, Ducks, and Blue Jackets to keep us on our toes. With only two games taking place yesterday there is only one team playing today that is on a back-to-back: the Senators and they will be at home as big favorites against the Blackhawks.

There is now less than a month until the playoffs start in the NHL but we’ll be posting plays in our tracker right up until the Cup is handed out. Let’s get into this meaty slate and see what bets deserve our attention.

Flyers at Canadiens Under 6.0 goals (-110, DraftKings)

Play to: -115

It always feels a little dicey taking an under on a team that is coming off a huge offensive explosion like the Flyers had in their last game against the Rangers (6-5 OT loss). However, Philadelphia has also shown us that when push comes to shove, they prefer a slower-tempo, more defensive style of game.

The Flyers are 40-32 to the under on the year and are also 20-15 to the under on the road this season (57% hit rate).

The Canadiens have also trended slightly towards the under at home (18-16 on the year) and recently have had great goaltending that has pushed a lot of their games towards the under (seven of their last nine games have had five goals or less).

Cayden Primeau looks like he’s getting the start tonight and has been solid at home of late, posting a shutout in his last home start against the Blue Jackets (41 saves).

Just given how loose the Flyers' defense played in their last outing, I expect them to pay more attention to detail in this game and to try and suffocate the Canadiens offense, which remains one of the worst 5v5 at creating chances (26th in xGF%).

Betting on a lower-scoring game in this spot, at anything -115 or better, looks like a decent bet tonight.

Blackhawks Moneyline (+165; bet365) at Senators

Play to: +150

This spot almost seems too obvious in some regards.

The Senators are coming off a couple of big wins (they just trounced the Sabres in Buffalo) and also played last night, which means they had to travel overnight and play at home today with little rest or prep.

Further, they will likely be starting the worse of their two netminders in Anton Forsberg who comes in with a .885 save% on the season. Forsberg has been slightly better in home starts this year but he’s also coming in off two home losses where he allowed four and seven goals against.

The Blackhawks are no world beaters, but the young squad has been playing well in the home stretch and has the look of a team that is motivated either by job security or in trying to build momentum for next season.

They’ve won two straight and have generally been coming out on the right side of these non-playoff team matchups (they’re 5-1 in their last six games against non-playoff teams).

All-in-all, the +165 line we are getting on Chicago just seems to be giving Ottawa a little too much respect in this spot, where travel and a backup goalie start will put them at a disadvantage.

Stars Moneyline (-110; BetMGM) at Canucks

Play to: -115

I faded the Canucks in their last home outing against the Kings and like Goofy once said “I’ll do it again”.

The Canucks, to me, are the weakest of the top four teams (potentially top six) in the West, especially when they are without their top netminder in Thatcher Demko, who continues to be out with injury.

The Stars come into this game leading the Central Division and with a one-point lead over the Canucks for the top seed (but the Canucks do have a game in hand).

In short, this game will go a long way to deciding who gets top seed honors in the West and I don’t expect this to be the game where the Stars get tripped up. They’ve won five in a row coming into tonight and have been one of the strongest road teams all season posting a 23-9 straight-up record to date.

With Demko out, the Stars pretty much trump Vancouver at every turn. Their power play has been better of late, they have more efficient penalty-killers and they’re the more dominant team 5v5 (4th in xGF%). Vancouver feels like they should be the underdog without Demko in this spot and at -110 I like taking the Stars to run up their sixth win in a row.

NHL Player Props for March 28th

Matthew Tkachuk anytime goal (+175; FanDuel)

Play to: +160

The Islanders come into this game having allowed 25 goals over their last five games. While it looked like New York might sneak their way into the final playoff spot after going on a nice little run of wins after the deadline, that hope has quickly dwindled as they have managed just a 1-6-1 record over their last eight games.

I don’t mind playing the Panthers to win this game straight-up and their regulation line at -110 looks very playable to me. However, just given the Islanders' issues in net and how many quality scoring chances they have been allowing, investing in the anytime goal market on one or more of the Panthers forwards looks like a good way to approach this game as well.

While we can pick from several Panthers forwards, I like rolling the dice with Matthew Tkachuk in this spot, who looks like a great target at anything bigger than +160 today.

The Islanders have the worst penalty-kill in the league and one thing we know about Tkachuk is that he’ll be out there with the man advantage. He’s seventh in power-play minutes per game this season and while his goal rate on the power play has dipped, there is always room for some positive regression in that regard in these final 10 games.

Either way, the opponent and price make this a good time to take a swing with his anytime goal prop tonight.

Jordan Kyrou anytime goal (+190; FanDuel)

Play to: +175

Kyrou comes into this game like a proverbial man on fire. The winger has seven points in his last three games and had a hattrick over the weekend against the Wild. He's also now at 25 goals on the season and with 30 goals within his grasp, he should be extremely motivated to keep firing the puck (he had 37 goals last year).

The Flames also make for an excellent matchup. They put up a nice fight after the trade deadline, but the gutting of their lineup has finally taken effect and they come having lost four in a row now, including an ugly 3-1 loss to the Blackhawks in their last start. Starter Jakob Markstrom has not been good since returning, posting save%s of under .900 in each of his last five starts.

For what it’s worth, Kyrou has also excelled in this matchup against Calgary, landing five goals against the Flames in his last six starts against them.

The +190 we are getting on another anytime goal from Kyrou looks very fair in this spot and makes for a good addition to tonight’s bets.

Underdog NHL Pick'em for March 28th

Nazim Kadri LOWER than 0.5 points

Kadri and the Flames offense has struggled of late. They’re not creating chances 5v5 and their power play now ranks third-last in the entire league.

Tonight they’ll likely be facing one of the best netminders in the league over the second half of the season in Jordan Binnington who has posted a .923 save% in 25 home starts this season. Considering we are getting an enhanced payout (aka scorcher) on Underdog to keep fading Kadri (pointless in three-straight games) I like his LOWER tonight.

Jordan Kyrou HIGHER than 0.5 points

See above…

Connor Bedard HIGHER than 0.5 assists (scorcher)

The Senators have played well of late but, as mentioned above, this is a tough spot for them today.

Anton Forsberg is one of the league’s worst goalies and the Blackhawks’ offense has been better of late, producing five or more goals in four of their last eight games.

It’s a little risky to take the HIGHER on an assist for Bedard (as opposed to just straight points) but the enhanced payout makes it worth it. The rookie has been a great playmaker and picked up nine assists over his last eight games.

NHL Best Bets For March 28th - Top Picks For Thursday's Hockey Slate