NHL Picks For May 10 - Best NHL Playoff Bets For Friday

The NHL has two games set for Friday night. Both teams in the Panthers - Bruins series have now won games by wide margins and head back to Boston 1-1.

The Oilers will try to rebound after blowing a three-goal lead in Game 1 of their series. Can Boston and Edmonton bounce back? Geoff Ulrich gives his thoughts below.

NHL Picks for Friday, May 10

Connor McDavid Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+134; FanDuel)

5+ SOG (+290; FanDuel)
SGP: Anytime Goal | 4+ SOG (+297; FanDuel)

I fully expect the Oilers captain to lead by example tonight. His team was held without a shot for 20 minutes at one point in Game 1, and he was held to zero shots on goal for the entire game by the Canucks. Keeping Connor McDavid from registering a shot is a huge win for Vancouver and certainly, you have to figure he’ll be doing his best to rectify that situation early on today.

Vancouver’s defense is mobile, but I fully expect to see the A+ game out of McDavid today, whose speed is next level. He had 4 SOG in the deciding Game 5 against L.A. and, coming off the Oilers only other loss of the postseason (Game 3 against L.A.), he managed 5 SOG and recorded 3 points. While his shot volume did go down significantly this season he still averaged a very healthy 3.46 shots on net in the regular season, and posted 5 SOG or more in seven of his last 21 games (33% of his games). Despite that solid hit rate his implied odds of hitting 5+ SOG tonight are still sitting around 25% (+290; Fanduel), a big divergence in price from what other books are posting.

The price for him to over over his regular total of 3.5 is attractive enough but laddering him through 5+ shots and even sprinkling in his anytime goal prop (+125; Fanduel) in some same-game parlays makes plenty of sense for those looking for bigger payouts. Artrus Silovs did not look great in Game 1 and McDavid, if nothing else, should looking to make up for a weak Game 1 by testing him as much as possible today.

Alek Barkov over 0.5 assists (+105; DraftKings)

Alek Barkov is a pivotal player for the Panthers. He’s not only their most well-rounded forward but a solid playmaker who helped Sam Reinhart reach over 57 goals this season. Coming into tonight Barkov has already recorded assists in four of seven playoff games and has been solid against the Bruins, landing assists in eight of his last 10 games against them.

The Bruins had no answer for the Panthers' attack in Game 2 and while I’m sure we’ll see a better effort out of Boston in Game 3 I’m not so sure it will be enough to slow down the Panthers entirely. Barkov’s over in this market is also as low as -105 at some books making this +105 on DraftKings attractive enough for a small play.

The Bruins haven’t had much answer for Barkov over the past two seasons and with their goaltending suddenly in flux, now is not the time I would pick to start betting against him hitting this prop again.

Oilers / Canucks over 6.0 (-120; bet365)

The number on this total is already on the move, as it opened as low as -115 but has above -120 at many books. Rather than wait or look for an alternate play I’d rather just jump on this number now before it gets shorter or moves to 6.5. Despite blowing a 4-1 lead the Oilers still managed to make their mark against third-stringer Silovs who allowed 4 goals in the first two periods. Silovs played so poorly that it’s possible the Canucks change goalies today and we Casey DeSmith, which may not be a bad thing for the Over either considering he’s played in one game since the end of the regular season.

Conversely, guessing which Stuart Skinner will show up today is fruitless. He destroyed over bettors for one game against the Kings, when he shut them out in Game 4, but has posted SV%’s well under .900 in four of six playoffs starts and has struggled against the Canucks this season, allowing four or more goals against them in five starts.

The bottom line is that we have two weaker goalies in play, an angry Connor McDavid, and an Oilers offense that is capable of hitting this total on their own, regardless of which Skinner shows up in Game 2. While the price is getting short I’d still rather be on the over side of this bet at anything below 6.0 / -130 in a series that is likely to be wide open for its entirety.

Panthers Moneyline (-125; DraftKings)

The Panthers and Bruins have both traded wins now, with the Panthers overcoming their Game 1 fogginess by dismantling Boston 6-1 in Game 2. The Panthers suffocated the Bruins in the final two periods of that game with Sergei Bobrovsky only needing 14 saves for the win. That’s the kind of Panthers hockey that I thought would make life difficult for Boston, a team that was just average at creating chances at 5v5 in the regular season (18th xGF%).

The Bruins also struggled to get past Toronto, a team that allowed far more high-danger scoring chances during the regular season and the playoffs, than Florida, and now have to find a way to generate more offense with their power play going up against a far more capable penalty-kill. It could happen and Boston was able to step up their game and control the action in Game 1, but the underlying stats say that may have been an anomaly and Boston simply catching a Panthers team who was off for a week, off guard.

Despite the Game 2 effort, the Panthers are now available at a much healthier price on the Moneyline for Game 3. They were in -180 range for Games 1 and 2 but have dipped down to -125. Home teams are also just 27-25 in these playoffs and the Bruins themselves are just 2-2 at home and needed OT in their final game of the series against Toronto to eliminate the Leafs.

I think if you agree with my argument for Florida then there is a case for taking the Panthers in some kind of bigger play (puck line, win in regulation, etc) but I like the idea of saving that move for Game 4 should Florida come up empty for us today. It would still give us a chance at profit on a makeup play, should they come up short on the money line bet for today.

NHL Picks For May 10 - Best NHL Playoff Bets For Friday

NHL Picks for Friday, May 10

Connor McDavid Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+134; FanDuel)

Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+

Alek Barkov over 0.5 assists (+105; DraftKings)

Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+

Oilers / Canucks over 6.0 (-120; bet365)

Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+

Panthers Moneyline (-125; DraftKings)

Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+