NHL Picks For May 13 - Best NHL Playoff Bets For Monday

We have another two-game set to break down when looking at our best NHL playoff bets for Monday. The Hurricanes will look to fend off elimination again in Game 5 while the Stars will look to put the Avalanche in a bigger hole after their Game 3 upset.

We have lots of angles to tackle today with one team facing elimination and a playoff favorite in the Avalanche looking to bounce back. Let’s dive into some NHL best bets for Monday.

NHL Picks for Monday, May 13

Alexis Lafreniere Over 0.5 points (+105; DraftKings)

3+ SOG (+165; DraftKings)
Anytime Goal (+320; Fanduel)

When we’re looking at player props for today’s game one of the lines that stood out to me immediately was the Alexis Lafreniere point prop. Still only 22 years old, Lafreniere is having a breakout at exactly the right moment for New York. He comes into this game with four goals and five points in his last three games and has recorded at least one point in all but one of his playoff starts.

It’s not like he’s doing this from the fourth line or something either. Lafreniere is playing alongside Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck at even strength, who are both skilled offensive-minded players. While you don’t want recency bias making bets for you it’s hard to ignore the increased production from Lafreniere, especially when his odds have yet to really adjust to what is potentially a new baseline for the winger.

Ultimately, I think there is good value in just playing for Lafreniere to land at least one point, but playing for bigger stakes makes sense as well. He’s recorded 13 shots on net over his last three games and yet his alternate line SOG prop (for 3+ shots on goal) is still set at +165 (37% implied probability), which seems way off given that his ice time increased last game as well. If you are looking to ladder bet him or just want a higher variance option, there is also some big divergence in his anytime goal prop with Fanduel posting a +320 line, while most other books have him posted in this market at under +300.

Andrei Svechnikov over 0.5 assists (+130; DraftKings)

Svechnikov over 1.5 points (+370; Fanduel)

Another young winger in this game who looks likes a great target for some props and potential alternate lines today is the Canes Andrei Svechnikov. Despite Carolina having trouble scoring on Igor Shesterkin, Svehcnikov has managed points in all but one game of this series and now has four total points over his last three games.

While I don’t mind taking the shorter number on him to get us a single point I think the difference in price between the over on his point prop (-135 or lower) and his assist prop (+130) is too big. He’s landed nine points in the playoffs to date and seven of those have been assists. He’s also playing on a line alongside Jake Guentzel, who is more of a pure goal scorer and a natural boost to Svechnikov’s assist upside.

The Canes have been getting their chances and finally broke through with four goals on Shesterkin in Game 4. I don’t necessarily want to put all my eggs in the Hurricanes moneyline basket given how weak their goaltending has been, so taking the over on Svechnikov is a nice middle-ground option that gives me exposure to the Canes' offense, but also doesn’t need them to win the game to hit.

If you are bullish on Carolina, though, another way to play for a big night from the Hurricanes is to look at taking Svechnikov over 1.5 points, a number that is almost triple what Carolina currently sits at on the 3-way, win in regulation line.

Artturi Lehkonen Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-120; DraftKings)

4+ SOG (+220; DraftKings)

Artturi Lehkonen didn’t have a great Game 3 (he recorded 0 shots on net) but remains a pivotal player for the Avs, which is well emphasized by the 24+ minutes of ice time he saw in his last start. His increased ice time in the playoffs has already led to some monster games and he’s now landed 5+ shots on net in three of his eight playoff starts to date.

The Avs top six sometimes rotate but their core is always going to play big minutes and that core includes Lehkonen, who posted solid home splits this season in his SOG stats (2.13 road vs 2.43 home). I’d also be remiss not to mention that he was a solid bounce-back candidate during the regular season. Overall, he recorded zero shots on goal on four occasions, and in the games preceding those four poor outings averaged 3.0 shots on net, and managed 3+ shots in three of those four games.

The Avalanche were stymied by Jake Oettinger in Game 3 but continued to lead the way in terms of scoring chances and shots on net. They should be looking to be more aggressive early in this game as well — given how poorly they have started games in this series – another factor that should boost Lehkenon’s upside. Overall, I don’t mind taking the -120 on over 2.5 shots for Lehkonen tonight, but with +220 available for 4+ shots he is a viable ladder candidate n this market and a player the Avs need to break out tonight.

Underdog NHL Pick’em for Monday

3-way; 4.68x multiplier

I kept this one relatively simple but there are a lot of ways you can build off these plays into a bigger card if you want. I do like Oettinger’s HIGHER on his save prop tonight and feel like we could Colorado get to 40+ shots.

Lehkonen is certainly a candidate for using on alt lines on Underdog but with his sportsbooks number at -120 the HIGHER on 2.5 is promising enough given we don’t have to take a discount of any kind to use it.

You could also add in a HIGHER on another Colorado forward like Valeri Nichuskin to get more correlation and boost your payouts.

Underdog NHL Pick’em

As mentioned, I also like Lafreniere to keep doing what he has been doing, which is to get points against the weaker Carolina goaltending.

You could get frisky and look to play him for a goal or assist (which would boost payouts) but the over on his points keeps it simple and still allows us to benefit by being bullish on a player whose props have yet to be rerated for his recent surge in production and usage.