NHL Picks For May 15 - Best NHL Playoff Bets For Wednesday

We only have one game in the NHL tonight but it should be a fun one. The Avalanche are suddenly on the ropes after losing Game 4 (third loss in a row) and will now have to go into Dallas and pull out a win to extend their season. Colorado got some terrible player news with Valeri Nichushkin getting suspended directly before the puck drop of their last game, but have at least had a couple of days now to digest that news.

The Avalanche have also not received the greatest goaltending of late from Alexander Georgiev and could decide to make a change in net tonight to try and boost morale.

Regardless, this matchup offers lots of angles and opportunities for props so let's dive in and see where the best value is for Wednesday’s Game 5.

NHL Picks for Wednesday, May 15

Jake Oettinger over 27.5 saves (-105; DraftKings)

Jake Oettinger has been over on this prop in two of four games in this series. However, given the circumstances surrounding the last game, where the Avalanche had to deal with the pre-game sucker punch that was Valeri Nichushkin’s suspension (player treatment program), you can understand why they failed to register as many shots as the games prior.

I doubt that will be the case tonight. Colorado has now had a couple of days to digest that news and they seem very likely to come out a little angry today. The Avalanche have still averaged 32.9 shots per game in these playoffs (third most in the league) and managed to fire 31 shots on Oettinger in Game 2, which was also in Dallas.

For his part, Oettinger has been terrific. He’s posted SV%’s of .960 or better in each of the last two games and has been excellent in the final period of most games of these playoffs, which is when the Stars will need him the most today.

I also think this game has a decent chance of seeing OT, a result that would drastically help our over-cause. Oettinger was sitting at -115 on this same total before Game 4, so the fact we can get him at -105 makes this a better value proposition for Game 5 as well.

Jason Robertson anytime goal (+200; bet365)

Jason Robertson hasn’t had a poor series, but he has gone goalless through four games. His Game 4 performance did see him register four shots on net, though, and with the series on the line, and the Avalanche perhaps a little more concerned with shutting down linemate Wyatt Johnson (after his monster Game 4) I think Robertson has a great chance at being a bigger part of the story for Dallas in Game 5.

The number we are getting also makes this a great buy-low spot. Robertson is an elite goal scorer, who has potted 41 and 46 goals in consecutive seasons already. Despite cooling off against Colorado he had three goals in the last series and is generally a good value when he drifts into the +200 region (33.33% implied probability).

I do like Dallas to get things done today but playing Robertson at this number gets us some exposure to that result and also provides us better value – and a backdoor way of cashing should our Dallas prediction be wrong.

Mikko Rantanen anytime goal (+150; FanDuel)

As much as I like the Stars and Oettinger today, I don’t think it’s likely that we see Colorado go down without a fight. They still have an insane amount of talent on their top line with Mikko Rantanen being a big part of that equation. The winger had taken a backseat in terms of goal production in these playoffs, before Nichushkin got suspended, but should be front and centre on the power play today for Colorado, a unit that is operating with the second-best efficiency in these playoffs.

Much like Robertson, backing Rantanen at this +150 level feels like too good of a long-term opportunity to pass up. He was regularly posted as low as +110 in this market during the regular season and did score vs. Dallas four times in 2023/2024. This game does have the potential to be higher scoring (this series has averaged 6.5 goals per game thus far) and backing Rantanen at this number gives us another way to play that thesis.

Ultimately, buying the dip on Robertson and Rantanen today at these levels means we only need one player to hit to generate some decent returns. That alone makes them a good duo to add to cards as we also get the added upside of a shootout occurring and both men hitting.

Stars Same Game Parlay +1200 (bet365)

Jason Robertson anytime goal
Artturi Lehkonen 3+ shots on goal
Oettinger over 27.5 saves
Stars Moneyline

Two of our three bets from above today correlate well with the Stars winning, so why not combine them for a same-game parlay centered around such a result?

Using Robertson and the Stars moneyline gets us to +300 so if you like Dallas today and want extra upside, but don't like using four legs, combining a goal from the underrated Robertson with his team to win, gives you a nice boost right off the bat.

Any Stars victory today, in my opinion, likely still comes with either OT or a late-game barrage from Colorado’s shooters. I’ve already made the case for Oettinger’s over above, but also like including the over on Artturi Lehkonen’s 2.5 shot total in this four-legger, as it correlates well with Oettinger’s prop. Lehkonen has been shooting the puck at a decent clip these playoffs (3.33 SOG per game) and with no Valeri Nichushkin is likely to get a few more chances today as a result of the winger’s unfortunate absence.

This number is slightly better at bet365 where we can get +1200 today, a solid result given how well these four legs correlate.

NHL Picks For May 15 - Best NHL Playoff Bets For Wednesday

NHL Picks for Wednesday, May 15

Jake Oettinger over 27.5 saves (-105; DraftKings)

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Jason Robertson anytime goal (+200; bet365)

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Mikko Rantanen anytime goal (+150; FanDuel)

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Stars Same Game Parlay +1200 (bet365)

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