NHL Picks For May 16 - Best NHL Playoff Bets For Thursday

After a slower night in the NHL, which saw yet another series get pushed to Game 6, we get a two-game slate for our best NHL playoff bets for Thursday that will have massive implications for the rest of the playoffs.

Carolina is back home for Game 6 after improbably staving off elimination twice in a row against the Rangers. Carolina is now -160 on the money line to take Game 6 and push this series to a Game 7 in New York.

Edmonton survived Game 4 against Vancouver in what has easily been the biggest roller coaster series of the second round thus far. The Canucks have been underdogs for every game this series and are set as +125 home underdogs yet again today.

Let’s get right to the bets and see where Thursday's best value lurks.

NHL Picks for Thursday, May 16

Oilers Over 3.5 goals (+112; FanDuel)

We finally got a tame game between these two teams, at least from a scoring perspective, in Game 4 but I don’t think that the reprieve will be long-lived. These two squads have already posted three games with seven or more goals, with each side showing the ability to score at even strength and on the power play.

Edmonton also picked up their 5v5 play in Game 4, however, and managed to get the game-winner late in the third period with both teams at even strength. Further, while both backups have risen to the occasion I am still convinced that there is regression lurking somewhere soon for Arturs Silvos and to a lesser extent, Cal Pickard, who recently took over the Oilers net minding duties.

These teams combined for 16 goals in Vancouver, with Edmonton hitting the over on this 3.5 total on each occasion. I don’t mind playing the game total over at 6.5 (which is available at +100 or better at almost every book) but by targeting Edmonton, whose offense should carry some confidence from that late Game 4-winner, we are getting a better number and more upside to play for a similar result.

Conor Garland over 2.5 Shots on goal (+124; DraftKings)

4+ (+310; DraftKings)
5+ (+650; DraftKings)

One thing I do feel certain of in this matchup between Edmonton and Vancouver is that the Canucks forwards will do a better job of testing Pickard. 21 shots on net is not enough against a backup goalie who is making his first playoff start at the age of 32. Garland has had a strong series and was one of the Canucks best players in Game 4, scoring the Canucks first goal at even strength on a wicked snapshot.

Conor Garland was rewarded with more ice time in Game 4 and I doubt you’ll see that trend stop in Game 5. His line landed both Canucks goals and he’s now managed 4 or more shots on net in two of the four games in this series. While it’s always a little risky taking overs on third-liners, the price on Garland’s over is solid with it getting as high as +124 on DraftKings.

I’d argue his upside in this market is also very solid today given that Lindholm-Garland-Johnson is essentially the 2A line for the Canucks right now and likely to see equal or more minutes than Pettersson-Mikheyev-Lafferty. As such, playing him through 4+ and 5+ shots on net (a milestone he hit three times in his last 10 games of the regular season) has some appeal.

Rangers Moneyline (+136; DraftKings)

Despite all the momentum headed in the Hurricanes' favor, I can’t help but think the best value on this slate is likely with the Rangers today. Teams down 3-0 rarely come back to win a series for a reason; sustaining that kind of positive momentum is taxing and near impossible to do for four straight games. In the NHL’s history, 210 times (as of May 9, 2024) has a team been down 3–0 in a best-of-seven series, and only four times have they overcome it (1.9% success rate).

New York hasn’t exactly been blown out of the water in any of the last two games either. They were ahead for much for Game 5 and kept Game 4 much of the way. Despite regressing a bit in Game 5, their special teams remain elite and they have been very good at getting the Hurricanes’ goalies out of position in this series. On the other side, while there may be concerns about Shesterkin and fatigue, he’s proven to be able to handle large workloads in the past and seems ripe to steal one of the next two games for the Rangers.

If you believe that last sentence like I do then the play here is simple. The Rangers are likely to be underdogs in each of the next two games, if it goes to seven games, so betting on them twice as underdogs would ensure profit if they win the series. We’ll start tonight by taking them above +130 which looks like a very solid price considering how close these games have been.

Teuvo Teravainen Under 0.5 points (-125; DraftKings)

With Shetsrkin in net, and the pressure of an elimination game, there is always the chance we get a very low-scoring affair that plays out with only a few goals in the entire match. Playing the under is preferred (if we’re betting the total) but I also like looking at the player props for Carolina and looking at some of the unders on their forwards.

Teuvo Teravainen isn’t getting top-line power minutes, and while he did land six shots in Game 2, he still hasn’t scored in this series and has only managed two assists to date (both of which came in Game 4). His ice time has been fairly steady, as the Hurricanes roll their top lines with a little more weight, but Teravainen is also attached to a limited offensive center in Jordan Staal, who himself is sitting at -215 to go pointless.

Taking Teravainen’s under is far more appealing, even if he is more of an offensive threat, and still gives us a chance at hitting even if this game does see more goals than we expect.

Same Game Parlay for Oilers vs. Canucks Game 5

Oilers Same Game Parlay +1000 (bet365)

Oilers Moneyline
Connor McDavid 3+ points
Leon Draisaitl anytime goal
Oilers over 4.5 goals

If the Oilers do break out today, then this is the kind of parlay I would expect would have a great shot at hitting. Draisaitl has now scored in three straight games in this series while McDavid’s Game 2 performance stands out as he managed to get in on every single one of Edmonton’s four goals.

As mentioned above, I do think the Canucks will do a better job of getting to Cal Pickard today which will also leave the Oilers needing more offense than they produced in their Game 5 win. If you like Edmonton and want to play for a bigger payout, my bet would be on their stars doing much of the damage – as is almost always the case when they hit 5 goals or more.

NHL Picks For May 16 - Best NHL Playoff Bets For Thursday

NHL Picks for Thursday, May 16

Oilers Over 3.5 goals (+112; FanDuel)

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Conor Garland over 2.5 Shots on goal (+124; DraftKings)

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Rangers Moneyline (+136; DraftKings)

Teuvo Teravainen Under 0.5 points (-125; DraftKings)

Same Game Parlay for Oilers vs. Canucks Game 5

Oilers Same Game Parlay +1000 (bet365)

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