NHL Picks for May 30: Best Bets for Panthers vs. Rangers Game 5

Round 3 of the NHL Playoffs has delivered on all fronts to date, We have two series that have been extremely even for the most part and are now both tied 2-2; which means we now get two best-of-three series to decide who goes to the Stanley Cup Finals. That’s pretty much all we can ask for as hockey fans.

The Rangers will be back at MSG tonight and looking to turn the tide after they blew a chance to go up 3-1 and put the Panthers on the brink of extinction (pun intended). I’ve picked a side for this game but also have multiple props and another +3000 SGP for tonight below.

Best Bets for Panthers vs. Rangers Game 5

Panthers Win in Regulation (+130; bet365)

Just like I did in Game 4, I’m happy to take another crack at backing the Panthers to grab a win in regulation.

Florida remains the more dominant team and has done well at limiting the Rangers' chances all series. Over the first four games of the series, the Panthers have essentially allowed half the number of high-danger scoring against that the Rangers have allowed (27 to 45). They’ve controlled possession at 5v5 and have been far better at creating scoring opportunities at even strength (59.72% - xGF%). What’s more, they’ve also picked up their special teams play in the playoffs and now rank 2nd among all playoff teams in penalty-kill efficiency. They’ve also been more disciplined of late, taking just five minors in Game 3 + 4 combined.

We’ve mentioned this before, but home ice in these playoffs hasn’t been all that big a deal.

The Panthers won in dominant fashion in New York in Game 1 and went 3-0 straight up on the road against Boston in Round 2. Their price has shortened a bit over their Game 1 odds but it’s not significant enough to deter me from betting them again. Further, while we have now seen three OT games in a row, all three of those games feel like they have been vastly tilted in favor of the Panthers.

You never want to play the “we’re due” card as a bettor, but the stats suggest we’re bound to see the Panthers get up early in one of these remaining games and simply just overwhelm the Rangers whose timely off-the-rush and short-handed goals have to run dry to some point.

Playing the puck line at +210 (-1.5) has some appeal for me but anything above +120 on the regulation line is preferred.

Sam Bennett Anytime Goal (+425; bet365)

The Panthers made some lineup moves before Game 3, moving Bennett up the depth chart to center a second line between Evan Rodrigues and Matthew Tkachuk. Tkachuk is an underrated playmaker and certainly, his presence on this line significantly upgrades the ceiling for a player like Bennett, who has now averaged 8.25 shot attempts over his last four games.

We were unfortunate not to ship the over on Bennett’s 2.5 shots on goal prop in the last game but he did manage 10 shot attempts in Game 4, took a playoff-high 29 shifts, and scored the Panthers' first goal of the game.

Just given the success that line had, we should see a similar lineup from Florida in game 5 so looking to Bennett’s overs is something I'm extremely interested in doing once again. You can still go over 2.5 shots on goal at FanDuel and get +150 to do so (on a 60-minute line) but if you don’t have access to that book or simply want to play for more upside, his goal prop is also still set at +425 across a couple different sites.

That’s a route I’m fine taking as his upside with Tkachuk on his wing is far bigger than it was before and he’s been one of the Panthers' most active shooters all series. Should Florida finally break through and get 4+ by Shesterkin, Bennett will be a prime candidate to get in on that action and pay off this prop once again.

Aaron Ekblad Under 1.5 Shots on Goal (-115; DraftKings)

Ekblad has been steering a defacto top pairing on defense for the Panthers, alongside Gustav Forsling. While he’s had a solid playoffs, the Panthers have also been smart with his minutes and given most of the power play time to the equally-skilled Brandon Montour and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, leaving Ekblad fresher to match up against other team’s top lines.

Given how effective the Panthers have been at shutting down the Rangers' top scorers in this series I doubt we’ll see Ekblad’s role change much. While he did have 7 shot attempts in Game 4 that was an anomaly as he attempted just seven shots between Games 1 to 3. Further, while Ekblad was more aggressive in the last two games (both played in Florida) he was less focused on the offensive side of the game when the Panthers visited New York to open the series as he attempted just three shots on net and recorded just one shot on goal in those first two games.

Ekblad’s now gone under this 1.5 total in nine of 15 playoff games (60% hit rate) and has gone under the mark in five of seven road games. There is also a little bit of divergence in this market on Ekblad’s number today with DraftKings offering it up at -115 which gives us a solid implied probability of 53.49%, much lower than what his actual hit rate has been in these playoffs – especially when on the road.

It may not be the most sexy prop, but unders often offer us the best value when we get into these volume markets and today is no different. It’s a good time to play for regression for a player who hasn’t been aggressive with his shot when on the road this post-season.

Same Game Parlay for Panthers vs. Rangers Game 5

+3000, bet365
Sam Bennett Anytime Goal Scorer
Sam Bennett over 2.5 shots on goal
Matthew Tkachuk over 0.5 assists
Florida Panthers Puck Line (-1.5)

Reason for taking Panthers Puck Line:

As noted above, the Panthers have controlled much of the series and been better at creating and limiting high-danger chances
They’ve also stepped up their special teams and have been solid on the road, covering the puck line in three of their last five road starts

Reason for taking Bennett Anytime Goal Scorer and Over 2.5 shots on Goal; and Tkachuk over 0.5 Assists:

All of these props correlate well with each other and also correlate well with a Panthers Puck Line cover
Bennett played more shifts in Game 4 and is now alongside a more creative offensive player in Tkachuk, who grabbed an assist in Game 4 and has five assists in his last four games
Bennett’s shot attempts have been through the roof in this series so if we are playing the anytime goal, it also makes sense to increase the upside of this bet by adding the over on his shots on goal.

NHL Picks for May 30: Best Bets for Panthers vs. Rangers Game 5

Best Bets for Panthers vs. Rangers Game 5

Panthers Win in Regulation (+130; bet365)

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Sam Bennett Anytime Goal (+425; bet365)

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Aaron Ekblad Under 1.5 Shots on Goal (-115; DraftKings)

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Same Game Parlay for Panthers vs. Rangers Game 5

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