NHL Picks For May 31: Best Bets For Oilers Vs. Stars Game 5

The Panthers took down the Rangers yesterday, winning another tight 3-2 game. They’re now one game away from making the Finals. Today, Dallas and Edmonton will play in their Game 5 and decide who gets the edge going into Game 6. This series has featured two tight, lower scoring games where the under hit, and two games where one team reached five goals and the over hit.

The Oilers scored five unanswered goals in Game 4 and finally have some momentum that they can build on. As we head back to Dallas the question now becomes whether or not the Stars have it in them to slow down the Oilers speed.

I expect we’ll see Dallas push back, but will it be enough? Let’s get to today’s best bets below.

Best Bets for Oilers vs. Stars Game 5

Oilers Moneyline (+114; DraftKings)

As you can probably tell if you’ve been reading these previews, I am leaning the Oilers to eventually take down this series. I haven’t bet Dallas yet over the first four games and going into Game 5 see no reason to change that strategy as Edmonton has been the better team in almost every aspect.

The Oilers have been the more dominate team 5v5, posting a 53.33 xGF% rate, and have outgunned the Stars landing 43 High Danger Scoring Chances to the Stars 37. It’s not huge edges we’re talking about but the Oilers play has been impressive as its come without any real advantage gained on the power play, an area they often excelled at during the first two rounds.

The Stars edge in net may be evaporating as well. Jake Oettinger was shaky to start Game 3 and then allowed four goals on 28 shots in Game 4, posting his worst SV% of the series (.857). The other bad news for the Stars is that Stuart Skinner may have fended off his latest bad patch, rebounding with a .909 SV% effort in Game 4, after allowing two quick goals to start.

The Oilers are unsurprisingly road underdogs tonight but as we have seen throughout the playoffs, home ice is overrated. Edmonton played the Stars extremely tough in Dallas in Games 1 and 2 and closed out their second-round series on the road as well. At +110 or bigger there is a good edge with the Oil City boys again today.

Connor McDavid Anytime Goal Scorer (+175; FanDuel)

It really feels like Connor McDavid is on the verge of taking over this series. Over his last two games the Oilers captain has amassed five points and been far more aggressive than he was at any point in the series with Vancouver. He attempted 18 shots in Game 3 and 4 combined and landed a total of 12 shots on net during those games.

You don’t have to be the best at math to know that if McDavid is getting six shots on your goalie every night, he’s going to end up with a goal more often than not. As someone who monitors these odds every game I’ve now seen McDavid’s prop go from the +110 range to start these playoffs into the absurd +175 price we are getting today. Dallas did do a better job of limiting McDavid in Dallas but with the Stanley Cup just two wins away I don’t think Game 5 will be a similar story.

Regardless, the +175 odds we are getting is the best number we have seen on McDavid all season and from an implied probability standpoint it suggests a 36% chance of this event occurring. Given the increase in shot attempts – and fact he’s already scored in two games of this series – it makes sense to me to buy in on an anytime goal for the league’s best player once again today.

Same-Game Parlay for Oilers vs. Stars Game 5

McDavid 2+ Anytime Goals
Evan Bouchard over 0.5 assists
Edmonton Oilers Win in Regulation

Reasons for taking Oilers Regulation Line:

As noted above, Edmonton has controlled play better 5v5. If they break out on the power play it seems like it will be too much for the Stars to keep this close and push to OT.
Edmonton also got better play from Skinner in Game 4 who has played well on the road; he’s 2-1 in his last three road starts and allowed just two goals against in all three of those games.

Reasons for taking McDavid 2+ Anytime Goals; and Bouchard over 0.5 Assists:

Bouchard and McDavid correlate well and both play on the PP1 for Edmonton. So if we are being hyper-bullish on McDavid than adding in a Bouchard assist only makes sense.
McDavid’s shot volume has really sprung up in this series. There has been more open ice, which suits his style of game and he should continue to have more more opportunities than he did against Vancouver.
The Oilers get to Oettinger like they did last game and if they are leading late, there may also be empty net scenarios for McDavid today.