Seriously Questionable Decisions

In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:

WHY SO UNSERIOUS? I finally know what day it is and Taco Tuesday can only mean one thing. Another week of coming to grips with our reality—professional football coaches regularly deploy mind-bendingly stupid decisions. And I tapped all your favorite MB Fantasy Life personalities for their Week 2 favorites.

We’ve all been there … sweating one bet or another when it happens. Something so insanely far outside the realm of rational coaching that we nearly knock ourselves silly with a palm-smack to the forehead.

Brian Daboll scarred me and anyone else holding NYG slips permanently with what can only be described as coaching malpractice. Kicker Graham Gano hurt his groin Saturday. This was no secret, yet coach Daboll big-brained the situation by not elevating a backup. Well, Gano lasted as long as the opening kickoff before going down for good. Fun times. Of course, the game wound up tied approaching the two-minute warning with Big Blue stalled at the Commanders 22—a perfect spot for a chip-shot potential game-winner (and TT O20.5 cover). EXCEPT WHOOPS! NO KICKER! Forced to go for it, the Giants obviously faceplant, immediately turn around and lose the game.

Chicago’s Matt Eberflus refused to believe his lyin’ eyes this Sunday. He threw a challenge flag on a Stefon Diggs reception that happened right in front of his face. In fact, if you watch the review carefully it’s possible some of the dirt from Diggs’ toe drag got on Eberflus’ slacks. Then later on, a clear missed INT by DB Kyler Gordon triggered a second inconceivably bad challenge, costing the Bears a much needed timeout for their final drive.

This weekend starred too many flubs to detail them all, but I’d be remiss to omit some star standouts for an honorable mention. Two coaches I truly revere, Mike McDaniel and Sean McVay, both went full-unserious by playing stars De’Von Achane and Matthew Stafford entirely too deep into blowout losses. And lastly, our very own Ian Hartitz pointed out Sean Payton for not kicking onsides with one timeout left while down seven points with just under two minutes on the clock.

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What else is in today’s newsletter?

Tuesday Night Charts
The New York Prop Exchange

Tuesday Night Charts—🏈📊

Each Tuesday—during my only chance to catch a midweek breath—I’ll be presenting the league through the lens of a single image. I find simple visualizations extremely helpful, particularly in tracking outliers.

While no one picture or advanced expected stat can truly shoulder such a load, learning to take the temperature of each team’s offensive and defensive expected points added (EPA) will sharpen your game. This per-play metric defines the value of each play by the effect it has on the offense's likelihood to score.

It provides an analytically dense, perspective-laden snapshot that is absolutely worth familiarizing yourself with.

NOTE: Positive EPA is ideal on both sides of the ball—so in this specific case below, the closer to the upper-right corner, the better a team’s combined performance on both sides of the ball.

THE GOOD
NO—The Saints keep marching in, popping off the EPA leaderboard on both sides of the ball. Eventually, we’ll have to take this seriously. In fact, Sean Payton’s odds for COY have actually gotten worse. Go figure.

BUF—Every question on offense thus far has been answered by Josh Allen shouldering the entire squad in his own version of hero-ball. It sure as heck isn’t pretty, but as long as he’s upright who’s going to stop him?

MIN— What a start for the Vikes. Kevin O’Connell leads one of only four teams above league average in both phases plus a win over the vaunted 49ers. Sam Darnold detractors seem painfully silent at the moment. He’s got to be in the early consideration for Comeback Player of the Year.

THE BAD
DEN—A decent D can only get you so far when the offense stinks this bad. The Broncos are lucky Carolina is soaking up all the negative attention in the room.

WAS—A decent O can only get you so far when the defense stinks this bad. And I imagine things continue to cascade when not playing the hapless Giants.

NYG—I promised Matthew Berry no swearing, and I’m still too tilted after Sunday’s kicker fiasco to be unbiased. Malik Nabers rules, burn down the rest.

THE UGLY
LAR—Already presenting as an outlier, bad will definitely be going to worse after a slew of serious injuries during a rout by ARI. Abandon ship.

CAR—It’s over. The Panthers decided to shift to the Red Rocket Andy Dalton. While this might improve them in the short-term, it’s a massive capitulation for what has to go down as a historically disastrous front-office run.

BONUS CHART! Team Yard Differential

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The New York Prop Exchange ⚾️🏛️—It’s Over, Johnny

Scoring is down across MLB, this much is true. That said, offensive suppression has put books in the strange spot of lowering lines to a point generally reserved for aces. I’m not exactly sure I’d use that word for either starter in today’s tilt between the A’s and the Cubbies. Mitch Spence faces Jordan Wicks at Wrigley—and while I’m not necessarily expecting double-digit runs scored, my Moving Averages model is nearly a full run over the First Five Inning Over/Under 4.

Don’t get me wrong, Spence can be OK at times. That said, if anything I love selling this rip and attacking him coming off a 7-inning masterclass versus the Phils. We’re still talking about a starter who has surrendered 4+ runs in 8 of 21 starts (38%), going up against a Cubs offense that’s top-3 vs. RHP over the last 30 days in team Runs, BA, OPS, BB%, and wOBA.

Meanwhile, Chicago’s rolling out lefty Jordan Wicks and his 5.27 ERA, 1.61 WHIP combo. He’s not only walked 4 batters in each of his last 2 starts, but given up 11 earned runs in only 13 innings since getting promoted.

Despite being a bit of a disaster offensively, the Athletics can hit for power, ranking top-3 vs. LHP this season in ISO and Barrel rate. So the hopeis pretty clear that we need a bloop and a blast but given the line is at 4 even, we’re still afforded the possibility of a push.