Sunday Night Football Best Bets Week 9: Justin Jefferson Goes Big
Geoff Ulrich reveals the Sunday Night Football Best Bets for Week 9, with Indianapolis Colts and Joe Flacco at Minnesota Vikings and Justin Jefferson.
Geoff Ulrich delivers the Sunday Night Football Best Bets for Week 9, featuring the Indianapolis Colts at the Minnesota Vikings.
This week’s Sunday Night game has every chance to be one of the best prime-time games of the season.
On the one side, we have the Minnesota Vikings, who have been everyone’s favorite Cinderella Story this season but come in riding a two-game losing streak and in need of a win to keep up with Green Bay and Detroit. Sam Darnold continues to operate at a very high level and comes in 9th in EPA per play among all qualified QBs on the season.
He will be without his top OL this week in Christian Darrisaw (IR) and facing a Colts pass rush that has some disruptors and got back DeForest Buckner last week. The Vikings' defense has been the trouble spot of late, as they’ve now allowed 12 TD passes over their last three games and face off against newly appointed Colts starter Joe Flacco, who (as we break down below) has thrived in this Colts offense.
Indianapolis has sputtered at points this season, but has been a competitive team regardless of rival, and come in as the most profitable betting team of the season with a 7-1 ATS record (87.5% success rate). They went 1-1 earlier this season with Flacco as starter but put up 34 points in a 37-34 loss to the Jaguars.
They’ll take a big step up this week in competition after playing Tennessee, Houston, and Miami in consecutive weeks, but with the change at QB and an improving defense, the Colts do seem likely to make this game competitive.
Let’s break down the spread and total, before getting to player props and pick’em cards below.
Colts +5.5 (-110; bet365) vs. Vikings -5.5 (-110; bet365) 46.5
Injury notes Colts:
Out
Questionable
DE Kwity Paye
Injury Notes Vikings:
Out
DT Taki Taimani
Questionable
Spread and Total
The line in this game is anywhere between 4.5 to 5.5 depending on which sportsbook you are on, so make sure you are line shopping for the best price and line (regardless of which side you like).
I took the Colts at +6.0 early in the week and placed it in our free NFL Bet Tracker before Flacco was announced as the starter. It was somewhat fortuitous timing as we do have Flacco as a +1.6 upgrade in edge for the Colts in our QB Spread Value Tool. As much as I like Anthony Richardson the athlete, and his upside for fantasy football, Flacco remains the better QB right now and his numbers suggest the edge (over Richardson) may even be bigger than we’re projecting.
Flacco has a stellar 73.5 QBR this season (would be a career-best), has a 7-1 TD-to-INT ratio in four appearances, and is also completing 65.7% of his passes (which would also be a career best).
The Vikings will also be without their best LB in Blake Cahsman this week, who is also their regular green dot player on defense. They have struggled without Cashman in the lineup and will also be without starting DT Taki Taimani, pushing Levi Drake Rodriguez into the lineup, who hasn’t played a snap all season.
Add in the fact that they lost their best OL in Christian Darrisaw this week and I’d be OK playing the Colts down to +4.5 (-110) or on the ML at +200 or better. With the Vikings' injury issues and Flacco operating so efficiently on the other side, asking the Vikings to cover through two key numbers at 3.0 and 4.0 just seems like too much.
Minnesota’s defensive issues also make playing the over at 46.5 (-110) somewhat attractive to me. Our game model has this rated right around the number (46.0 to 46.5), but the Colts have averaged 27 points in Flacco’s two starts and the Vikings allowed 30+ points with Cashman out in their last two games.
I’ll be laddering the Colts team total in this spot at the following numbers (available as of writing):
- Over 19.5 (-135; bet365)
- Over 23.5 (+175)
- Over 27.5 (+375)
- Over 30.5 (+550)
I break down the best props and more for Colts at Vikings below.
Vikings vs. Colts Best Bets:
Joe Flacco Over 1.5 passing TDs (+135; bet365)
This bet pretty much goes along with my take on the spread and total for this game, which is that the Vikings offense is going to have a tough time shutting down the Colts in this Joe Flacco-led offense.
Flacco has been brilliant in the Shane Steichen system, throwing for 7 TDs on just 71 attempts and 10.08 yards per attempt. The Vikings also have seen their elite early-season pressure metrics dry up on defense as they’ve managed just 2.3 sacks per game over their last three starts. Their pass rushers were also shut out against the Rams, who didn’t allow another statuesque pocket passer Matthew Stafford to go down once in Week 8.
From a probability standpoint, we’re also getting implied odds of 42.5% (at +135), a solid number given that Flacco has thrown for 2 or more TDs in each of his starts this season–and the fact the Vikings have allowed 2+ passing TDs against in four of their seven games.
Again, if you’re bullish on the Colts scoring points in this spot like I am, there are a lot of different ways to go about betting this game. On top of Flacco’s TD props, and laddering overs on the Colts team totals (mentioned above) through various numbers, I also like this spot for an anytime TD for Josh Downs (+270; bet365).
I outlined my reasoning for liking Downs in my weekly Anytime TD column for Week 9, but a same-game parlay combining the overs on Downs 0.5 TDs, Flacco 1.5 TDs, and the Colts over 23.5 pays a solid +700 on DraftKings (as of writing).
Underdog 3-Way (6.25x Multiplier)
- Justin Jefferson Over 6.5 receptions
- Sam Darnold Over 0.5 INT
- Joe Flacco 1.5 Over Passing TDs
This game has the potential for a lot of big plays and back-and-forth action. We touched on Joe Flacco’s upside already multiple times, but haven’t mentioned the Vikings' side yet. Sam Darnold should have an easy time getting the ball to his favorite target this week (and every week), Justin Jefferson, as the Colts don’t have a true shutdown corner and have allowed 68.36% completion rate to opposing QBs this season (6th worst in the league).
Jefferson is projected for 8.4 targets this week on Fantasy Life, but if we’re correlating his HIGHER with a HIGHER on 1.5 TD passes for Flacco, then it’s more likely he reaches his target ceiling and gets to 10-11 in this spot (and HIGHER on his 6.5 exception total).
Flacco going for HIGHER also correlates with a few more Darnold dropbacks, which could lead to another INT. Darnold has thrown at least one pick in five of seven starts this season and is projected for 0.7 INTs this week on Fantasy Life.
The fact we can play the HIGHER on Darnold 0.5 INTs with a payout boost, makes this a good value proposition on its own, and a prop I’ll consider playing as a straight bet (at another shop).
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