In today's Betting Life Newsletter:

Yin And Yang: Feels great to be back in the cockpit for the next part of our MLB team preview series, aimed to give you a leg up on preseason baseball betting markets with all the most recent analysis.

Today, we wrap up the National League West division with the reigning world champion Los Angeles Dodgers before hopping a cross-country flight to visit the downtrodden Miami Marlins out east.

Jana Kingsford said, "Balance is not something you find, it's something you create"—and truer words were never spoken to describe the disparity in Major League Baseball today. Without turning this into a tirade against billionaires, some owners should frankly be ashamed of their willingness to put profit ahead of performance.

But first, let’s check last year’s team home run leaders …

2024 Major League Home Run Leaderboard

And, of course, what kind of betting newsletter would this be if we didn’t put all this great analysis to good use and wrap up with my favorite future bet?

📕 We’ve archived all of our MLB team betting previews here along with my correlating futures plays. Give them a read when you have a minute!

🏈 To my fantasy football people, of course we have you covered on Fantasy Life:

🆓 It’s free agency week, and Ian Hartitz just finished a series on top free agents at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. And ICYMI, he broke down all 32 NFL teams’ needs. We’ll have the latest free agency news as it happens.

🔮 Thor Nystrom just published his post-NFL Scouting Combine Mock Draft and his 2025 NFL Draft RB Rankings highlight the top 20 running backs going into the draft.

💪 Speaking of incoming draftees, Dwain McFarland delivered the Rookie RB Super Model for one of the top RB classes in recent memoy.

OK, time to get back to some hardball in the NL West! Click this button below 👇 to head to our futures page!

ARE THE DODGERS A SURE THING TO WIN IT ALL?

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Do people still have watercoolers? Around the Slack? Here’s what I’m reading …

📋 Free Agency is here, so make sure to follow our tracker for the latest news.

📺 Early signings and blockbuster trades, we covered them here.

👀 Davante Adams to the Rams means target competition. Plus, who gets to wear No. 17?

🙌 DK Metcalf is now a Steeler. Now who’s throwing to him and George Pickens?

🎉 Chris Godwin is staying put. Baker Mayfield is ready to run it back.

💪 Tetairoa McMillan just may be the top WR prospect in the 2025 NFL Draft.

🏀 Is the 2020 NFL Draft class the best ever at QB? Maybe, though 1983 would like to have a word.

🔮 Tyler Warren is going where in our latest NFL Mock Draft?

⚾🚋MLB Team Preview—Los Angeles Dodgers🚋⚾

Dr. Dre’s famous line, “Hollywood, always up to no good," resonated in describing Los Angeles’ run this winter, going from World Series champs to big spenders in the open market. Unsatisfied with simply being the best, the Trolley Dodgers went out and added not one but two aces this offseason. Former NL West rival and two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell now dons the blue and white, along with the talented 23-year-old Roki Sasaki. You may remember the Japanese phenom from our most recent World Baseball Classic, where he put the entire planet on notice that his NPB career 30.8% K-BB was no fluke.

LA opens up as massive favorites to repeat (+290, a 25.6% implied probability) with a 103.5 total win line, neither of which I can remember a comp to in recent memory.

Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA / R / RBI / HR / SB)

1. Shohei Ohtani, DH: .289 / 116 / 110 / 43 / 33
2. Mookie Betts, SS: .276 / 95 / 89 / 27 / 13
3. Freddie Freeman, 1B: .281 / 90 / 86 / 22 / 12
4. Teoscar Hernández, RF: .258 / 86 / 88 / 28 / 10
5. Max Muncy, 3B: .215 / 68 / 72 / 24 / 1
6. Will Smith, C: .262 / 67 / 72 / 22 / 2
7. Michael Conforto, LF: .234 / 57 / 60 / 18 / 1
8. Tommy Edman, CF: .247 / 69 / 53 / 13 / 24
9. Hyeseong Kim, 2B: .246 / 69 / 60 / 8 / 24

Hitting Overview: Coming off one of the single greatest individual hitter seasons in MLB history, Shohei Ohtani is back for more—and brought some new buddies along with him. If the Dodgers’ offense presented an obvious vulnerability last year, it’d have to be the back end of the lineup. Multiple experiments failed in the form of Andy Pages, Enrique Hernández, Gavin Lux, Miguel Vargas, Jason Heyward, Kevin Kiermaier, and James Outman. 

It must be nice having money (I wouldn’t know) because General Manager Brandon Gomes once again busted out the pocketbook to shore up the back third of the lineup. LAD signed veteran outfielder Michael Conforto and 26-year-old Korean infielder Hyeseong Kim, who boasts not only a +.300 career BA but also 33 steals per 600 plate appearances in the KBO.

This many quality hitters with such great plate approaches and power strokes means a lineup with no holes and nowhere for opposing pitchers to escape. After covering the Diamondbacks and Padres, I’d still contend those intra-divisional series will be too close to call when their respective aces take the hill, but that’s the thing—the Dodgers’ first four rotation spots are all occupied by a bona fide ace.

As easy as it seems to predict Los Angeles going to the moon in 2025, I can tell you already they’ll be no fun to bet on with moneylines north of (-250) the vast majority of nights.

Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):

1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
2. Blake Snell, LHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
3. Tyler Glasnow, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
4. Roki Sasaki, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
5. Tony Gonsolin, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐

Starting Pitching Overview: Second verse, same as the first. No, my emoji key didn’t get stuck—the Dodgers rightfully have four different starting pitchers earning an ace designation. I’d love to give any Dodger haters out there something worthwhile to gnaw on, but like the inimitable George Washington, I cannot tell a lie. They are awesome.

Could it be the fact all of their top four projected SPs sit at or above 95 MPH? Or maybe it’s last year’s maximum 1.15 WHIP plus minimum 22.5% K-BB? For opposing hitters, there’s nowhere to run. In case you were hoping Sasaki might stumble in his international transition, his Spring Training stats reflect those of a seasoned ace. Though it’s only a handful of innings, he’s yet to allow a run while striking out over 38% of batters faced.

The only thing that can derail this staff is a few bites from the injury bug, but even then, who’s to say they won’t go out and sign your favorite team’s ace right out from under your nose? And we haven’t even brought up Ohtani and three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw each returning to the mound at some point this season.

Early betting prediction: The most popular bet this season from all the worst touts on the internet will be LAD RL -1.5 (-205). Yuck.

DODGERS’ CHANCES TO RUN AWAY WITH THE NL CROWN?

⚾🐟MLB Team Preview—Miami Marlins🐟⚾

Finishing 2024 with 100 losses as the National League’s second-worst team, Miami’s front office simply didn’t consider talent acquisition a priority this offseason. Just a mere 27 games out of last year’s Wild Card, the Marlins did very little this winter to stop the trend of having only one winning season in the last 19 years. Woof.

Bordering on malpractice, Miami will trot out a who’s who of who(?) to begin the 2025 season. You know it’s bad when a lifetime New Yorker with zero ties to Magic City gets visibly outraged while scanning a professional roster for redeeming qualities.

Spoiler alert: there are few, if any, reasons for encouragement …

Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA / R / RBI / HR / SB)

1. Xavier Edwards, SS: .276 / 68 / 40 / 2 / 31
2. Connor Norby, 3B: .245 / 63 / 63 / 16 / 11
3. Jesús Sánchez, LF: .247 / 61 / 63 / 18 / 8
4. Jonah Bride, DH: .240 / 45 / 41 / 9 / 2
5. Matt Mervis , 1B: .199 / 21 / 25 / 7 / 1
6. Otto Lopez, 2B: .267 / 50 / 40 / 7 / 15
7. Kyle Stowers, RF: .215 / 39 / 43 / 12 / 1
8. Dane Myers, CF: .246 / 23 / 20 / 5 / 5
9. Nick Fortes, C: .221 / 33 / 33 / 7 / 4

Hitting Overview: When not a single hitter projects for 20+ bombs or 130+ combined Runs + RBI entering Opening Day, it’s time for a change. In what more resembles a late August lineup after surviving an injury–riddled summer, it’s painful to think the Marlins could actually level-down once players start hitting the IL. Remember, not a single player in the order logged +550 PA in 2024—what are the chances that even two-thirds churn out +600 PA in 2025? (whispers) Almost zero.

I guess if we really squint as hard as possible, the top third of the order could present issues for opposing pitchers at times. Even considering legitimate raw power from the combination of Connor Norby and Jesús Sánchez (minimum 12.3% barrel, .408 xwOBAcon in 2024), there’s no ignoring what can only be described as extremely poor disciplinary profiles—they both whiff, chase outside the zone, and strike out entirely too much. And that’s the better part of the lineup.

Once you hit the middle of the order, it’s all downhill from there. I couldn’t tell you which, if any of these players will even be in the majors come the All-Star break—or who would possibly replace them. 

It’s going to be a very long season down in South Florida …

Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):

1. Sandy Alcantara, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
2. Ryan Weathers, LHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
3. Max Meyer, RHP: ⭐⭐
4. Edward Cabrera, RHP: ⭐⭐
5. Cal Quantrill, RHP: ⭐

Pitching Overview: Maybe I jumped the shark a touch preparing the Marlins’ early grave (but probably not). If they manage to get the most from their front four, there’s a world in which they stay competitive a couple of times a week—still not the highest praise, but it’s something.

Former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara is roughly 17 months removed from Tommy John surgery and looking super sharp this spring.  Yet to allow a run through 5.2 exhibition innings, he’s consistently hitting triple digits on the radar gun and appears to be back at peak power. 

After Sandy, Miami will turn to a couple of former first-round picks in Ryan Weathers and Max Meyer to right the ship. Weathers looked especially filthy last we saw him (3.63 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) before missing the final four months of the regular season with a sprained finger covering home. Meyer underwent his Tommy John surgery in late 2023, and the hope is he will be entering the honeymoon phase of recovery without restrictions. There’s obvious potential in that 25-year-old right arm, but also some wishful thinking involved to reverse his MLB career 5.86 ERA, 1.43 WHIP combo. 

Once again, it’s all downhill from here. Neither Edward Cabrera nor Cal Quantrill could find the plate in 2024 with bottom-10th percentile ball rates north of 39%. Granting excessive amounts of free passes not only damages the prospect for a win that night, but taxes what projects to be a below-average bullpen for a pathway to sustained losing streaks. Like I said earlier, it’s going to be a long season for the Fish.

SANDY ALCANTARA NL CY YOUNG AWARD ODDS?

🔮 Look Into My Crystal Ball: Quick Hit Futures Bets 🔮

Please note the reduced risk on future plays before anything else. If you’re wondering why these wagers are all fractional, it’s not just because I’m responsible, care about you, or happen to be very good at what I do. 

It’s important whenever open-ended betting to always keep bankroll management in mind. Speaking from experience, it’s way too easy to wind up with a season-long ticket carrying more risk exposure than we’re comfortable with. Please bet responsibly, it’s the key to sustainability—you can’t make any money if your account is at $0.

THE BET: Miami Marlins To Have MLB’s Worst Record (+650) On DraftKings, Risk (0.10u ONLY) 

Get the shovels. While it’s true the White Sox continue to suck up all the loser oxygen in the room, there’s a variance-based case for the Marlins to finish even worse than the Pale Hose in 2025. 

Let’s take a look at how the two bottom-feeders finished in tight contests, defined as either one-run or extra-inning games. Chicago went an absurd 17-39, which is almost sure to regress positively, while Miami wildly exceeded expectations at 33-29 compared to their overall record. Right there alone could make up the 20-game swing we need to cash this bet.

Then, there’s a matter of pricing. At (+650), or a ~13% implied probability, Miami is one of three teams firmly in the race to the basement, yet it’s not reflected in the price. Not to put too much negativity out into the universe, but one or two key injuries plus a midseason fire sale at the trade deadline could leave the Marlins in a worse spot than the White Sox or Rockies. Bet small and hope for the worst.

Hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!

CAN XAVIER EDWARDS WIN THE STOLEN BASE CROWN?

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