The Largest Spread Of The NFL Season?
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, we preview the 1 PM ET slate of games, the team with the lowest expectations on the slate, and more.
In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
It’s game day! Nothing beats a quick once-over on what to expect, especially during this busy time of year. So each Sunday, I crack open my very worn and beaten marble notebook to share my personal hand notes to help you finalize your prep on today’s NFL slate.
I’ll outline the early window below. You can find the afternoon slate analysis at the bottom of this breakdown.
Ravens (8-5) at Giants (2-11): In the season’s largest spread to date, the Ravens will do their best to avoid a drone swarm flying north for New Jersey today. I’ve never recommended a 17-point cover and am not about to start now—but that doesn’t mean I can’t comprehend it. Not only does every conceivable stat point heavily in BAL’s direction, but the team’s incentives stand in polar opposition to each other. In this year’s race to the bottom, New York’s tied for worst record with Las Vegas but trails by a minuscule .002 in strength of schedule—Big Blue’s going to do everything they can to not pull the Mr. Magoo and win accidentally. Meanwhile, Baltimore lost two of three, in desperate need of an easy dub right before the playoff push. I’ve been most impressed by the course correction on the defensive end. If the Ravens’ D keeps up their recent pace of leading the league in yards allowed/game this month, New York’s going to struggle to even get on the board. LEAN: BAL/NYG u42.5
Jets (3-10) at Jaguars (3-10): Fast forward. Please. Took the Jets a dozen games to finally flash the aerial attack promised two years ago. In his first 300-plus-yard game since 2021, Aaron Rodgers looked vintage, carving up a decent Miami secondary by working back and forth between his two alpha WRs. Jacksonville’s coming off a strong defensive outing against the Titans themself (shocker), but the NFL’s worst secondary should expect regression to the mean this afternoon. Arrogance will destroy you in this industry, but I’m stuck asking myself—who are these people betting on Mac Jones and the Jags? LEAN: NYJ -3 (-118)
Commanders (8-5) at Saints (5-8): Wouldn’t want to be a Saints’ backer today. After a rib injury caused some mid-season struggles, Washington’s late bye should serve as a launching point for a healthy Jayden Daniels’ second act. The Commanders currently hold the final Wild Card spot but sit just a half-game in front of the Rams with similar conference records. They’ll be frenzied off the bus smelling blood in the water against Saints’ third-string QB Jake Haener. Frankly, I’m surprised a second-year QB with 29 career attempts and zero pass-catching threats is only a 7.5-point underdog. LEAN: WAS -7.5 (-110)
Bengals (5-8) at Titans (3-10): Here they come, back in town, it’s the greatest show around—when the Bengals are coming to town. Through fourteen weeks, Cincinnati must be close to, if not the best offense in history with a .385 win percentage. How does that even happen? Simple. Trying to overcompensate for a defense that’s allowed 425-plus yards/game for a month. What?!? That’s outrageous. As well as Tennessee’s defense plays at times, they’ve also given up 30-plus points four times this season. So it’s stoppable force versus movable object today. If anyone can make the Titans look fluid on offense it’s Cincy and vice versa. At “only” 46.5, betting the over will be popular—Bengals games have averaged an insane 63 PPG since Week 8 … with no one else over 55! That said, why trust the Titans if you don’t need to? LEAN: CIN TT O26.5 (-105)
Dolphins (6-7) at Texans (8-5): Early postseason feels today in southeastern Texas as the world’s smartest mammals fight for their own survival. Considering we’re in a dome with a number of superstars involved in positively trending offenses, I got thrown off by the middling total. Over the last month, both Houston and Miami racked up at least 5.6 yards/play, averaging over 28 points/game. We know the capability for splash plays is in there somewhere for Miami, despite ranking 24th in explosive play rate since Tua returned under center. LEAN: MIA/HOU O46.5 (-110)
Chiefs (12-1) at Browns (3-10): One bounce here or a half-second there. That’s all it would’ve taken for the Chiefs to be in a complete tailspin, losing four out of five to below-average offenses. Instead, in this current plane of reality, Patrick Mahomes possesses the Midas touch. Kansas City’s unimaginably 12-1 despite generating only 5.1 yards/play and being one of only five teams yet to score 30-plus points in a game. How do they do it? Slow, meticulous drives and the league’s best third-down offense by a country mile. Then a strong front seven boosts a dangerous interior defense, great at converting blitzes into hurries and sacks. With Jameis back there shuffling around off-platform, expect a thrill a minute as always. However, I think with gross weather in the Cleveland forecast, ground games become the focus in a rock fight. LEAN: KC/CLE u43.5 (-110)
Cowboys (5-8) at Panthers (3-10): Simulate to end. I call this one a “mom game” because I just hope everyone has fun and no one gets hurt. Eliminated from postseason contention with little to play for, teams in Dallas’ position become hard to back—they just want to land the plane without losing any more stars to injury. On the other hand, Carolina’s seemingly on the verge of deciding they may not draft a QB next year. Sure, they’ve lost three straight off the bye. More importantly in determining trajectory though, CAR took all three future playoff teams to task—losing by a total of 12 points combined. Bryce Young looks NFL-viable … the defense does not. LEAN: DAL/CAR O43 (-110)
Hope you enjoyed this Sunday’s Blitz here at the MB BettingLife newsletter! Don’t be shy, contact me anytime on X @JohnLaghezza with questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you! We’re here to help!
Make sure to check out our NFL Odds Pages, and you can also use our NFL Game Betting Model to identify the biggest edges on game totals, spreads, and moneylines!
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- No Cap: Jets Ready For Takeoff
- Look Into My Crystal Ball: Little Giants
- Sharp Hunter: A lean on the PHI-PIT game
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
📆 Looking towards 2025? Catch up with the latest NFL mock draft.
🦁 Expect fireworks in this one … your guide to Lions vs Bills.
5️⃣ The top five props of Week 15 … and Underdog Pick’ems, too.
👀 Sweating a fantasy football playoff matchup? Our cheat sheet is here to help.
⚡️ If you aren’t fired up for Week 15 … then watch this and report back.
No Cap🏈🧢—Jets Ready For Takeoff
THE BET: NYJ TT O20.5 (-125; DraftKings)
The blitz chewed up most of my digital real estate but that’s fine—this one’s a quickie. Today, I get my revenge on Jacksonville after thoroughly befuddling the wildly inconsistent Will Levis last week. I imagine that TEN/JAX run-out affected this week’s total because I don’t see a world where the Jags keep my Jets under 21 points—something they’ve achieved just three times in their last 11 contests (image below).
Aaron Rodgers may not have discovered the fountain of youth, but he sure looked a lot more like the vertical passer we expected coming into this season. Could his 339-yard breakout performance finally signal a breakout? The Dolphins’ secondary might be an order of magnitude better than Jacksonville, who ranks as a bottom-3 pass-defending unit by any measure
- 6.0 Yards Allowed Per Play: Last
- -0.26 EPA/Dropback: Last
- 107.5 Opposer Passer Rating: Last
- 263.5 Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: 31st
- 58 +20-Yard Completions: Last
Plus we have a rebounding Jets’ defense versus Mac Jones who just lost his safety blanket, Evan Engram, for the season. New York’s being terribly undersold in this one.
WHAT DOES OUR GAME MODEL THINK?
Look Into My Crystal Ball🏈🔮—Little Giants
THE BET: NYG Sunday’s Lowest Scoring Team (+400; DraftKings)
Two things to always confirm before identifying the lowest-scoring team. Whether there are any bad weather games and if any team total lines came in below ours. Check and check. The nation’s not expecting disastrous conditions and no one has a lower team total than the Giants.
In short, Big Blue’s terrible. To expand on that, they also have no interest in winning with the number one overall pick at stake. Brian Daboll will be singing his version of Scenes From An Italian Restaurant and starting Tommy DeVito once again—like I said, totally disinterested in winning. Hold your nose, people I got some season-long NYG offensive stats for you …
- 14.9 Points Per Game: Last
- 4.7 Yards Per Play: T-31st
- -0.11 EPA/Play: T-29th
- 1.6 First Downs Per Drive: T-30th
- 1.3 Points Per Drive: Last
- 27.5% Scoring Drive Success: 31st
Meanwhile, Baltimore’s gotten healthy and decided to start defending the pass, transforming from a pass funnel into a unit worth avoiding the past month:
- 280.0 Yards Allowed Per Game: 2nd
- 4.5 Yards Per Play: 1st
- +0.09 EPA/Dropback: 3rd
- 165.0 Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: 2nd
- 9.8 Yards Allowed Per Reception: 3rd
- 1 Passing TD: T-1st
Whatever mess the Ravens’ D can’t clean up should get handled by the offense moving at will and keeping the Giants off the field.
Love the odds for New York to pull up the caboose today.
NOTE: 0.25u risk only on longshots
SHARP HUNTER: More Grit-and-Grind Than Shine?
A big, BIG Sunday on tap in the NFL.
Twelve games on the main slate plus the Sunday Night game between the Packers and the Seahawks in Seattle.
Lots. Of. Action.
At Sharp Hunter, we’re looking at where the sharp action is going by tracking thousands of bets from sharp bettors. Not just in the NFL, but in the NBA, CBB, and CFB too.
Our sharps like a lot of the games on Sunday’s board, but let’s focus on one of the bigger ones.
In Philadelphia, the Eagles host the Steelers in the late afternoon window. The Eagles sit as a consensus 5.5-point favorite heading into Sunday. The total is 43 in most places so let’s use that number because the sharps are interested.
We show a One-Bag Sharp Score on UNDER 43.
And I want to bet the under with the sharps in this spot.
On offense, we know the Eagles want to run the football: their 53.7% rush rate in neutral-pace situations is No. 1 in the NFL. With a lead of a TD or more, that rush rate skyrockets to over 70%. A.J. Brown might not like it, but the Eagles are going to run the ball and keep running it until someone stops them.
For most of the season, the Pittsburgh offense has used the deep ball to power their own offense. But with George Pickens OUT, we can expect their 49.7% neutral-pace situation rush rate (No. 4 in the NFL) to be even higher than their season average.
The Pittsburgh offense has struggled in the Red Zone this season—they show the fourth-worst TD/Red Zone trip numbers in the league. More FGs are good for the under.
The Eagles (#4) and the Steelers (#8) both sit in the Top 10 DVOA defensively.
We can see the public is on the over here with over 70% of the bets and money coming in there. Yet, we’ve seen this line actually come down a tick since Sunday Night. Or at worst stay the same … even with all that money on the over.
Two teams that want to run and two good defenses.
I can see why the sharps at Sharp Hunter want to bet the under 43 here.
I’m happy to bet against the public here—and in the process bet with the sharps, too.
Should be a great Sunday of football—good luck with all your bets and fantasy football playoff matchups!
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