In this breakdown of my Bills vs Lions predictions for Week 15, I include my model's game score and player stat projections (via boxscore), which should be useful as a resource for fantasy and betting.

I also …

• Provide general notes on various items (such as betting market data, team trends, weather, travel, rest, injuries, #RevengeGames, etc.)
• Highlight any potential best bets I have on the game
• Note any players I like to outperform expectations.

Essentially, whatever catches my eye with this game—that's what I'm writing about. Think of this collection of focused miscellany as just part of my “Freedman Files.”

Obligatory notes.

Time Stamp: All data, projections, and analysis are as of Wed., Dec. 11, 8:00 p.m. ET.

Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my NFL game projections (sides, totals, and MLs for every contest) as well as my weekly fantasy rankings and player projections, all of which are accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription.

You can get 10% off your FL+ sub with the promo code FREEDMAN.

And if you're looking for free betting insights, give our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker a look, as well as our Betting Life Newsletter and all the actionable articles we have on the site.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Betting Odds For Bills vs Lions Week 15

• Spread & Total: DET -2.5 | O/U 54.5
• DET ML: -136 (FanDuel) 
• BUF ML: +125 (ESPN Bet) 

Betting data is via our Fantasy Life Odds Page.

A spread of -2.5 means the Lions need to win by at least three points to cash. If the Bills win outright or manage to lose by no more than two, they cash. A total of 54.5 means that 55 or more points cashes the over and 54 or fewer points cashes the under. A -136 ML means that a bettor needs to wager $136 to win $100; a +125 ML, $100 to win $125.

The current markets are close to my projections, although I lean slightly to the Bills and the over.

This game has the highest over/under of the season so far, which isn't a surprise, given that of all the games played to this point the Lions have the three biggest pre-game market totals.

• Lions at Cowboys: 53.5 | Final Total: 56
• Rams at Lions: 53.5 | Final Total: 46
• Packers at Lions: 53 | Final Total: 65

Even if the game ultimately goes under the total, we should expect to see lots of points.

Lions vs Bills Implied Team Totals

• DET Team Total: 28.5
• BUF Team Total: 26

Implied team totals are derived from spread and total.

Projections and Predictions for Week 15 Lions vs. Bills

Lions-Bills Betting Projections

• Spread: DET -1.9
• Total: 55.0
• ML: +/-120.3

Lions-Bills Final Score Prediction

• Lions: 28.4
• Bills: 26.5

Since this projected score is technically impossible, here's my "informed gut" projection: DET 28, BUF 27.

Bills-Lions Projected Odds to Win

• Lions: 54.6%
• Bills: 45.4%

Lions Player Projections For Week 15

Quarterback

Top Fantasy Plays for Week 15 Lions vs. Bills

Lions Week 15 Fantasy Rankings

Here's where I rank fantasy-viable Lions in their skill-position groups for Week 15.

• Jared Goff: QB13
• Jahmyr Gibbs: RB7
• David Montgomery: RB9
• Amon-Ra St. Brown: WR5
• Jameson Williams: WR36
• Sam LaPorta: TE9

Rankings are for half-PPR scoring and differ slightly from projections, which seek to hit the median in a range of outcomes. In contrast, my rankings attempt to take into account ceiling and floor. 

For updates, see my weekly fantasy rankings.

Bills Week 15 Fantasy Rankings

Here's where I rank fantasy-viable Bills in their skill-position groups for Week 15.

• Josh Allen: QB2
• James Cook: RB18
• Khalil Shakir: WR32
• Amari Cooper: WR38
• Keon Coleman: WR68
• Dalton Kincaid: TE20
• Dawson Knox: TE31

For my full fantasy thoughts on the Week 15 slate, see my “Freedman's Favorites.”

• Quarterbacks for Week 15 Fantasy Football
• Running Backs for Week 15 Fantasy Football
• Wide Receivers for Week 15 Fantasy Football
• Tight Ends for Week 15 Fantasy Football

Freedman's Favorite

Lions RB David Montgomery: If you love yards and TDs, you probably—at a minimum—like Montgomery. He has 1,000-plus yards from scrimmage in every season of his career and 27 all-purpose TDs (plus a passing score) in 30 games since joining the Lions last year (including postseason).

Montgomery isn't a splashy playmaker, and he's in an annoying timeshare with explosive second-year RB Jahmyr Gibbs—but if you think of Montgomery as an arbitrage version of his flashier teammate, then his lack of a full workload feels less irritating.

Over the past two years, the difference between Montgomery and Gibbs has been manageable if not negligible.

• Montgomery (30 games): 2,441 yards, 27 TDs | 438 carries, 65 targets
• Gibbs (31 games): 2,827 yards, 26 TDs | 389 carries, 100 targets

With a TD in 10 of 13 games this year (and 13 of 17 last year, including playoffs), Montgomery is one of the most attractive weekly bets to score. 

With a season-high game total of 54.5, the Lions as home favorites are likely to put up a lot of points against the Bills—No. 3 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+5.6)—and that gives Montgomery an excellent chance to score once again.

As a candidate in the anytime TD market, Montgomery is intriguing. Be it fantasy or sports betting, Montgomery is almost always discounted in one market or another.

Use our Fantasy Life Prop Finder to find the best odds available for almost any player-focused bet.

From my Week 15 Freedman's Favorites (RB Edition).

Betting Records and Trends for Week 15 Lions vs. Bills

Lions: 2024 Betting Records

• ATS: 9-3-1 39.6% ROI | Favorites: 8-3-1, 35.2% ROI | Home: 4-2-1, 22.3% ROI
• ML: 12-1, 33.5% ROI | Favorites: 11-1, 28.2% ROI | Home: 6-1, 12.5% ROI
• Under: 7-6, 3.1% ROI | Home: 3-4, -17.7% ROI

Betting performance data is via Action Network.

The Lions have been one of the most profitable teams to back this year, and over the past three seasons, they've had one of the league's best home-field advantages.

Bills: 2024 Betting Records

• ATS: 8-5, 16.3% ROI | Underdogs: 1-2, -36.4% ROI | Road: 4-3, 8.3% ROI
• ML: 10-3, 17.3% ROI | Underdogs: 1-2, -28.3% ROI | Road: 4-3, 0.0% ROI
• Over: 8-5, 16.2% ROI | Road: 3-4, -19.5% ROI 

This year the Bills have been strong ATS and ML producers … but not as underdogs or on the road.

Lions: Betting Trends

• HC Dan Campbell: 46-20-1 ATS, 32.5% ROI | 38-28-1 ML, 7.3% ROI
• Campbell at Home: 23-10-1 ATS, 32.2% ROI | 22-12 ML, 19.7% ROI
• Campbell as Favorite: 22-10-1 ATS, 29.6% ROI | 27-6 ML, 21.0% ROI
• Campbell as Home Favorite: 13-7-1 ATS, 22.3% ROI | 17-4 ML, 14.9% ROI
• QB Jared Goff Indoors: 43-20-1 ATS, 30.3% ROI | 40-24 ML, 11.0% ROI

Dan Campbell's data is with Lions only.

The team often covered without winning in Campbell's first two seasons, but since then they've started to win—while continuing to cover.

The one rub: They've regularly underperformed the ATS Campbell-era baseline as home favorites. In this spot, they've been better at winning than covering (even though Goff has historically provided almost all his betting value when playing in a dome).

Bills: Betting Trends

• QB Josh Allen: 60-51-5 ATS, 3.5% ROI | 78-38 ML, 11.0% ROI
• Allen on Road: 29-23-2 ATS, 6.4% ROI | 31-23 ML, 11.4% ROI
• Allen as Underdog: 18-14-2 ATS, 8.1% ROI | 14-20 ML, 19.4% ROI
• Allen as Road Underdog: 12-10-2 ATS, 4.8% ROI | 9-15 ML, 16.3% ROI
• Allen Indoors: 9-3-1 ATS, 40.1% ROI | 9-4 ML, 79.5% ROI

Throughout his career, Allen has been profitable yet unremarkable as a betting asset—but at least he has been at his best on the road and as a dog.

And indoors, Allen has been lethal. But, sure, it would be a terrible idea to build a home dome in Western New York for one of the league's best passing QBs. But I digress …

Lions-Bills Anytime TD Player Prop

• Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime TD: +122 (Caesars)
• Proj: 0.57 TDs | +104.5 to Score

St. Brown has a TD in eight of 13 games with a total of nine for the season. He hasn't scored in three straight games, but before that he found the endzone in eight consecutive contests.

RBs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are likelier to score, but St. Brown is tied for No. 3 in the league with nine targets inside the 10-yard line.

Against a defense that could be missing two starting DBs, St. Brown could easily get his 10th TD of the season.

Lions vs. Bills Injury Report and External Factors

I won't touch on all the players on the injury report, but here are the key injuries that catch my eye.

Lions: Notable Injuries

• DT DJ Reader (shoulder): Missed practice on Wednesday after sitting out last week.
• DT Alim McNeill (concussion): Exited Week 14 early, but he encouragingly practiced fully on Wednesday.

The Lions were without a few key contributors in Week 14—LT Taylor Decker (knee), EDGE Josh Paschal (knee), and DT Levi Onwuzurike (hamstring)—but I'm optimistic they will return to action: They all opened the week with practice after not practicing at all last week.

Bills: Notable Injuries

• WR Keon Coleman (wrist): Last played in Week 9 but finally seems ready to return after getting in his first full practice on Wednesday.
• TE Dalton Kincaid (knee): Exited Week 10 early but got a full practice on Wednesday and is trending toward returning. 
• CB Rasul Douglas (knee): Left Week 14 early and missed Wednesday. Not good.
• FS Taylor Rapp (neck, shoulder): Did not practice on Wednesday. Needs to be monitored.

On the one hand, the Bills seem likely to get back two starting pass catchers. On the other hand, they might be without two starting DBs.

Lions-Bills External Factors

• Home-Field Advantage: The Lions have most of their home-field advantage because this is a non-divisional game, but the Bills (like Lions) play on turf in their home stadium, so the Lions don't have their full HFA.
• Travel: The Bills just traveled west for an away game, and now they have their second straight road matchup, whereas the Lions are playing their third consecutive home game and fourth in five weeks.
• Rest: The Lions have three extra days of rest off Thursday Night Football.

Lions-Bills Revenge Game

“If you prick us do we not bleed? If you tickle us do we not laugh? If you poison us do we not die? And if you wrong us shall we not revenge?”

Bills No. 3 RB Ty Johnson played for the Lions in 2019-20, before eventually finding his way to the Bills in 2023.

The injustice! His blood must be boiling, right?

Abbreviations

• Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Team Total (TT)
• Moneyline (ML)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
• Short Down and Distance (SDD)
• Long Down and Distance (LDD)
• Dropback Over Expected (DBOE)

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