
Matthew Freedman breaks down everything you need to know ahead of the pivotal Buffalo Bills vs Detroit Lions Week 15 tilt, including betting trends, bets, rankings, and more.

In this breakdown of my Bills vs Lions predictions for Week 15, I include my model's game score and player stat projections (via boxscore), which should be useful as a resource for fantasy and betting.
I also …
Essentially, whatever catches my eye with this game—that's what I'm writing about. Think of this collection of focused miscellany as just part of my “Freedman Files.”
Obligatory notes.
Time Stamp: All data, projections, and analysis are as of Wed., Dec. 11, 8:00 p.m. ET.
Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my NFL game projections (sides, totals, and MLs for every contest) as well as my weekly fantasy rankings and player projections, all of which are accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription.
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And if you're looking for free betting insights, give our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker a look, as well as our Betting Life Newsletter and all the actionable articles we have on the site.
Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.
Betting data is via our Fantasy Life Odds Page.
A spread of -2.5 means the Lions need to win by at least three points to cash. If the Bills win outright or manage to lose by no more than two, they cash. A total of 54.5 means that 55 or more points cashes the over and 54 or fewer points cashes the under. A -136 ML means that a bettor needs to wager $136 to win $100; a +125 ML, $100 to win $125.
The current markets are close to my projections, although I lean slightly to the Bills and the over.
This game has the highest over/under of the season so far, which isn't a surprise, given that of all the games played to this point the Lions have the three biggest pre-game market totals.
Even if the game ultimately goes under the total, we should expect to see lots of points.
Implied team totals are derived from spread and total.
Since this projected score is technically impossible, here's my "informed gut" projection: DET 28, BUF 27.
Quarterback
| Player | Comp | PaAtt | PaYd | PaTD | INT | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | FP | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends | Jahmyr Gibbs | David Montgomery | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Jameson Williams | Tim Patrick | Allen Robinson | Sam LaPorta | Brock Wright | Shane Zylstra | Bills Player Projections For Week 15 | Quarterback | Josh Allen | Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends |
| James Cook | 12.1 | 54.7 | 0.48 | 2.1 | 17 | 0.1 | 11.6 | |||||||
| Ray Davis | 5.3 | 22 | 0.16 | 0.6 | 6.3 | 0.04 | 4.4 | |||||||
| Ty Johnson | 2.3 | 10.2 | 0.06 | 0.8 | 8.1 | 0.05 | 2.9 | |||||||
| Khalil Shakir | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0 | 4.5 | 54.3 | 0.26 | 9.3 | |||||||
| Amari Cooper | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.1 | 44.5 | 0.31 | 7.9 | |||||||
| Keon Coleman | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 30.5 | 0.19 | 5.2 | |||||||
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 0.1 | 0 | 1.3 | 18.2 | 0.17 | 3.5 | |||||||
| Curtis Samuel | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0 | 1.2 | 11.9 | 0.08 | 2.4 | |||||||
| Dalton Kincaid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 33.8 | 0.23 | 6.3 | |||||||
| Dawson Knox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 17.7 | 0.13 | 3.3 | |||||||
| Zach Davidson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 3.2 | 0.03 | 0.6 |
Here's where I rank fantasy-viable Lions in their skill-position groups for Week 15.
Rankings are for half-PPR scoring and differ slightly from projections, which seek to hit the median in a range of outcomes. In contrast, my rankings attempt to take into account ceiling and floor.
For updates, see my weekly fantasy rankings.
Here's where I rank fantasy-viable Bills in their skill-position groups for Week 15.
For my full fantasy thoughts on the Week 15 slate, see my “Freedman's Favorites.”
Lions RB David Montgomery: If you love yards and TDs, you probably—at a minimum—like Montgomery. He has 1,000-plus yards from scrimmage in every season of his career and 27 all-purpose TDs (plus a passing score) in 30 games since joining the Lions last year (including postseason).
Montgomery isn't a splashy playmaker, and he's in an annoying timeshare with explosive second-year RB Jahmyr Gibbs—but if you think of Montgomery as an arbitrage version of his flashier teammate, then his lack of a full workload feels less irritating.
Over the past two years, the difference between Montgomery and Gibbs has been manageable if not negligible.
With a TD in 10 of 13 games this year (and 13 of 17 last year, including playoffs), Montgomery is one of the most attractive weekly bets to score.
With a season-high game total of 54.5, the Lions as home favorites are likely to put up a lot of points against the Bills—No. 3 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+5.6)—and that gives Montgomery an excellent chance to score once again.
As a candidate in the anytime TD market, Montgomery is intriguing. Be it fantasy or sports betting, Montgomery is almost always discounted in one market or another.
Use our Fantasy Life Prop Finder to find the best odds available for almost any player-focused bet.
From my Week 15 Freedman's Favorites (RB Edition).
Betting performance data is via Action Network.
The Lions have been one of the most profitable teams to back this year, and over the past three seasons, they've had one of the league's best home-field advantages.
This year the Bills have been strong ATS and ML producers … but not as underdogs or on the road.
Dan Campbell's data is with Lions only.
The team often covered without winning in Campbell's first two seasons, but since then they've started to win—while continuing to cover.
The one rub: They've regularly underperformed the ATS Campbell-era baseline as home favorites. In this spot, they've been better at winning than covering (even though Goff has historically provided almost all his betting value when playing in a dome).
Throughout his career, Allen has been profitable yet unremarkable as a betting asset—but at least he has been at his best on the road and as a dog.
And indoors, Allen has been lethal. But, sure, it would be a terrible idea to build a home dome in Western New York for one of the league's best passing QBs. But I digress …
St. Brown has a TD in eight of 13 games with a total of nine for the season. He hasn't scored in three straight games, but before that he found the endzone in eight consecutive contests.
RBs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are likelier to score, but St. Brown is tied for No. 3 in the league with nine targets inside the 10-yard line.
Against a defense that could be missing two starting DBs, St. Brown could easily get his 10th TD of the season.
I won't touch on all the players on the injury report, but here are the key injuries that catch my eye.
The Lions were without a few key contributors in Week 14—LT Taylor Decker (knee), EDGE Josh Paschal (knee), and DT Levi Onwuzurike (hamstring)—but I'm optimistic they will return to action: They all opened the week with practice after not practicing at all last week.
On the one hand, the Bills seem likely to get back two starting pass catchers. On the other hand, they might be without two starting DBs.
“If you prick us do we not bleed? If you tickle us do we not laugh? If you poison us do we not die? And if you wrong us shall we not revenge?”
Bills No. 3 RB Ty Johnson played for the Lions in 2019-20, before eventually finding his way to the Bills in 2023.
The injustice! His blood must be boiling, right?