Week 15 Running Backs for Fantasy Football: Joe Mixon, David Montgomery, and More
Matthew Freedman highlights the top running backs playing in Week 15, focusing on Joe Mixon, David Montgomery and others in the fantasy football playoffs.
Week 15.
For the vast majority of fantasy football leagues, the postseason is here.
On the one hand, the pressure is greater than it has ever been. The margin for error is nonexistent. Every start/sit decision matters. Every player-vs.-defense matchup warrants analysis. Every bit of data might make the difference between victory and defeat.
On the other hand … it's just another week.
You've made it this far. Trust your process. Especially if part of that process has been reading "Freedman's Favorites" each week.
And if somehow, for whatever reason, you're not a regular reader of this piece … how are you even in the fantasy playoffs???
Oops, I mean, welcome!
Let's crush the competition.
As of Tuesday evening, here's an early look at my (preliminary) favorite Week 15 fantasy plays—the guys who (in some combination) …
- Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
- Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
- Must be added if they are on waivers.
- Possess underappreciated upside.
- Have advantageous matchups.
- Should be considered in daily fantasy.
- Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
- Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
- Stand out in our Fantasy Life Player Prop Tool.
Some customary notes.
Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.
Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players in separate sections are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings.
Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.
Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 10:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Dec. 10, and based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.
Freedman's Favorites: Although we publish this piece as four separate articles broken out by position, I think of it as one cohesive whole and write it as such. With that in mind, please be sure to check out the rest of my favorite Week 15 fantasy football plays in the other positional previews.
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Best RBs For Fantasy Football Week 15
Joe Mixon (Texans) vs. Dolphins
- Texans: -2.5
- O/U: 47
- TT: 24.75
If you had to create the perfect situational setup for an RB to go off, it might be something like this.
- Favored
- At home
- Off a bye
- Facing an opponent off an overtime game
Done, done, done, and done.
The setup for Joe Mixon is about as good as it could be.
Minus his injury-impacted Week 2, Mixon has been a league winner in his nine full games.
- Week 1: 178 yards, 1 TD | 30 carries, 3 targets
- Week 6: 132 yards, 2 TDs | 13 carries, 3 targets
- Week 7: 124 yards, 2 TDs | 25 carries, 3 targets
- Week 8: 134 yards, 1 TD | 25 carries, 6 targets
- Week 9: 106 yards, 1 TD | 24 carries
- Week 10: 90 yards, 1 TD | 25 carries, 4 targets
- Week 11: 153 yards, 3 TDs | 20 carries, 4 targets
- Week 12: 45 yards, 0 TDs | 14 carries, 6 targets
- Week 13: 119 yards, 1 TD | 20 carries, 6 targets
Mixon has had 16-plus opportunities in all of his full games and 20-plus in all but one. For the season, he's No. 2 at the position in our Fantasy Life Utilization Score (9.0).
Given the circumstances and Mixon's history of usage and production, it's fair to expect a big performance from him against the Dolphins, who could be without LB Anthony Walker (hamstring).
David Montgomery (Lions) vs. Bills
- Lions: -2
- O/U: 54.5
- TT: 28.25
If you love yards and TDs, you probably—at a minimum—like David Montgomery. He has 1,000-plus yards from scrimmage in every season of his career and 27 all-purpose TDs (plus a passing score) in 30 games since joining the Lions last year (including postseason).
Montgomery isn't a splashy playmaker, and he's in an annoying timeshare with explosive second-year RB Jahmyr Gibbs—but if you think of Montgomery as an arbitrage version of his flashier teammate, then his lack of a full workload feels less irritating.
Over the past two years, the difference between Montgomery and Gibbs has been manageable if not negligible.
- Montgomery (30 games): 2,441 yards, 27 TDs | 438 carries, 65 targets
- Gibbs (31 games): 2,827 yards, 26 TDs | 389 carries, 100 targets
With a TD in 10 of 13 games this year (and 13 of 17 last year, including playoffs), Montgomery is one of the most attractive weekly bets to score.
With a season-high game total of 54.5, the Lions as home favorites are likely to put up a lot of points against the Bills—No. 3 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+5.6)—and that gives Montgomery an excellent chance to score once again.
Whenever the sportsbooks post his anytime TDs odds this week, I'll be sure to take note: Montgomery's 76.7% historical hit rate on finding the end zone in any given Lions game translates to -329 (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator), and I highly doubt any book will have him priced with odds that short.
Hence, value. Per usual. Montgomery is almost always discounted in one market or another, be it fantasy or sports betting.
Use our Fantasy Life Prop Finder to find the best odds available for almost any player-focused bet.
Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs. Cowboys
- Panthers: -2.5
- O/U: 42.5
- TT: 22.5
If there's one thing I've learned over the years from all my hours watching Game of Thrones, it's that chaos is a ladder.
Right now, the Panthers backfield is in chaos, and Chuba Hubbard is alone at the top of the ladder.
Promising rookie RB Jonathon Brooks (knee) retore his right ACL last week and will miss the rest of the season. Special-teamer and RB-in-name-only Raheem Blackshear (chest) exited last week early with an injury. And veteran RB Miles Sanders (foot, IR) last touched the field in Week 10.
Right now, the only healthy "RB" behind Hubbard on the active roster is returner/WR Velus Jones, whom the Panthers just signed from the Jaguars' practice squad this week.
Despite playing on a 3-10 team and splitting work with Brooks over the past few weeks, Hubbard is No. 1 in the league with 17 goal-line carries, and in his 10 games prior to the bye—before Brooks made his NFL debut in Week 12—Hubbard had 942 yards and 7 TDs with 161 carries and 35 targets.
As a home favorite and the literal last man standing at his position, Hubbard could have an outsized workload against the Cowboys, who are No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.080).
You can trust Hubbard in the fantasy playoffs.
The Checkdown
Kyren Williams (Rams +2.5, TT: 23.5) at 49ers: After posting a season-low 67% snap rate in Week 13 and sharing work with rookie third-rounder Blake Corum, Williams returned to form last week (82% snap rate, 69% rush share, 67% route rate) and put up 97 yards and 2 TDs. For the season, he has either 80 yards or a TD in every game. The 49ers are No. 28 in defensive rush EPA (-0.029).
James Conner (Cardinals -6, TT: 26) vs. Cardinals: Even with the Cardinals losing three straight games out of the Week 11 bye, Conner has 252 yards and a TD on 42 carries and 13 targets over the past three games. I'd expect him to improve upon those numbers this week as a home favorite against the Pats, who are No. 28 in defensive rush DVOA (0.8%).
Brian Robinson (Commanders -7, TT: 25) at Saints: Robinson should be fresh off the bye, and he could see additional work as a large favorite, especially without No. 2 RB Austin Ekeler (concussion, IR). In his eight full games this season, Robinson has 703 yards and 6 TDs on 126 carries and 14 targets. The Saints are No. 31 in defensive rush DVOA (7.5%).
Tony Pollard (Titans +5, TT: 20.75) vs. Bengals: Even with the return in Week 13 of No. 2 RB Tyjae Spears from a concussion, Pollard over the past two weeks has a dominant 74% rush share and 47% route rate (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report). With this usage, he has put up 192 scrimmage yards despite the Titans losing both games by a combined 27 points—so I'm not overly worried about Pollard being a dog to the Bengals, who are No. 31 in defensive rush SR (46.3%).
Rico Dowdle (Cowboys +2.5, TT: 20) at Panthers: Dowdle was an ignominious game-day inactive in Week 8, but since then he has 559 yards and 2 TDs in six games with 15-plus opportunities every week. The Panthers are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (25.0).
Abbreviations
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
- Dropback Over Expected (DBOE)
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