Tight Ends for Fantasy Football Week 15: David Njoku, Kyle Pitts, and more
Matthew Freedman highlights the top tight ends playing in Week 15, focusing on David Njoku, Jake Ferguson and others in the fantasy football playoffs.
Matthew Freedman highlights the top tight ends for fantasy football in Week 15.
Week 15.
For the vast majority of fantasy football leagues, the postseason is here.
On the one hand, the pressure is greater than it has ever been. The margin for error is nonexistent. Every start/sit decision matters. Every player-vs.-defense matchup warrants analysis. Every bit of data might make the difference between victory and defeat.
On the other hand … it's just another week.
You've made it this far. Trust your process. Especially if part of that process has been reading "Freedman's Favorites" each week.
And if somehow, for whatever reason, you're not a regular reader of this piece … how are you even in the fantasy playoffs???
Oops, I mean, welcome!
Let's crush the competition.
As of Tuesday evening, here's an early look at my (preliminary) favorite Week 15 fantasy plays—the guys who (in some combination) …
- Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
- Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
- Must be added if they are on waivers.
- Possess underappreciated upside.
- Have advantageous matchups.
- Should be considered in daily fantasy.
- Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
- Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
- Stand out in our Fantasy Life Player Prop Tool.
Some customary notes.
Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.
Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players in separate sections are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings.
Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.
Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 10:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Dec. 10, and based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.
Freedman's Favorites: Although we publish this piece as four separate articles broken out by position, I think of it as one cohesive whole and write it as such. With that in mind, please be sure to check out the rest of my favorite Week 15 fantasy football plays in the other positional previews.
QBs for Fantasy Football Week 15
RBs for Fantasy Football Week 15
WRs for Fantasy Football Week 15
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Best TEs For Fantasy Football Week 15
David Njoku (Browns) vs. Chiefs
- Browns: +4
- O/U: 45
- TT: 20.5
In the seven games since the Browns traded former No. 1 WR Amari Cooper to the Bills in Week 7, David Njoku has been a dominant force.
- Utilization: 85% route rate | 23% target rate | 24% target share
- Production: 46-350-5 receiving | 72 targets | Two 2-point conversions
And without WR Cedric Tillman (concussion) over the past two weeks, Njoku has leveled up again.
- Utilization: 88% route rate | 29% target rate | 31% target share
- Production: 16-94-3 receiving | 30 targets
Tillman is uncertain for Week 15, but I'm skeptical that he'll play given that he's yet to return to practice and still in the league's protocol. If he's out, then Njoku will once again have a strong shot at double-digit targets against the Chiefs, who are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (12.1).
The Hot Route
Jake Ferguson (Cowboys +2.5, TT: 20) at Panthers: Ferguson missed most of Week 11 and all of Weeks 12-13 with a concussion, but he returned to action last week, and his underlying usage was encouraging (80% route rate, 21% target rate and share) even if his production was forgettable (3-32-0 receiving). The Panthers are No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (+4.5).
Kyle Pitts (Falcons -5, TT: 24.5) at Raiders: Since the Week 12 bye, Pitts has averaged 1.8 yards per target. Before the bye, he had 9.5. For his career, he has a mark of 8.0. I'm just saying … he's not as bad as he's looked over the past two weeks. The Raiders are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (19.8%), and Marcus Epps (knee, IR) is out.
Stone Smartt (Chargers -3, TT: 24.25) vs. Buccaneers: TE Hayden Hurst (hip, IR) is out, and TE Will Dissly (shoulder) exited last with an injury. If Dissly is unavailable—and especially if No. 1 WR Ladd McConkey (knee, shoulder) doesn't suit up—then Smartt might be a viable desperado flier. Sans Dissly, Smartt last week had a season-high 33% route rate, which he turned into a career-high 54 yards receiving. With 8.7 yards per target since last year, Smartt has some explosive playmaking potential. The Bucs are without SS Jordan Whitehead (pectoral, IR), and they also might be without LB K.J. Britt (ankle), FS Antoine Winfield (knee), and backup S Mike Edwards (hamstring). Their TE defense could be suspect.
Abbreviations
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
- Dropback Over Expected (DBOE)
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