Week 15 Wide Receivers for Fantasy Football: Jaxon Smith-Njiba, and more
Matthew Freedman notes the top wide receivers playing in Week 15, focusing on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyreek Hills and more in the fantasy football playoffs.
Matthew Freedman highlights the top wide receivers for fantasy football in Week 15.
Week 15.
For the vast majority of fantasy football leagues, the postseason is here.
On the one hand, the pressure is greater than it has ever been. The margin for error is nonexistent. Every start/sit decision matters. Every player-vs.-defense matchup warrants analysis. Every bit of data might make the difference between victory and defeat.
On the other hand … it's just another week.
You've made it this far. Trust your process. Especially if part of that process has been reading "Freedman's Favorites" each week.
And if somehow, for whatever reason, you're not a regular reader of this piece … how are you even in the fantasy playoffs???
Oops, I mean, welcome!
Let's crush the competition.
As of Tuesday evening, here's an early look at my (preliminary) favorite Week 15 fantasy plays—the guys who (in some combination) …
- Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
- Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
- Must be added if they are on waivers.
- Possess underappreciated upside.
- Have advantageous matchups.
- Should be considered in daily fantasy.
- Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
- Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
- Stand out in our Fantasy Life Player Prop Tool.
Some customary notes.
Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.
Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players in separate sections are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings.
Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.
Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 10:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Dec. 10, and based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.
Freedman's Favorites: Although we publish this piece as four separate articles broken out by position, I think of it as one cohesive whole and write it as such. With that in mind, please be sure to check out the rest of my favorite Week 15 fantasy football plays in the other positional previews.
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Best WRs For Fantasy Football Week 15
Tyreek Hill (Dolphins) at Texans
- Dolphins: +2.5
- O/U: 47
- TT: 22.25
Last year, Tyreek Hill led the league with 1,799 yards and 13 TDs receiving just one season after putting up a 1,710-7 receiving campaign in his first season with the Dolphins.
By comparison, this year's 65-769-5 stat line looks meager.
But QB Tua Tagovailoa exited Week 2 early with a concussion and missed Weeks 3-7. If we exclude those weeks, then Hill has 48-605-5 receiving on 67 targets (along with 3-17-0 rushing) in Tagovailoa's eight full games.
Those numbers aren't elite, but they're good enough to suggest that Hill is still one of the league's best pass catchers, and over the past two weeks the Dolphins have seemed to make more of a concerted effort to get him the ball, resulting in 16-198-2 receiving with 23 targets (and a 6-yard rush).
The Texans are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (31.0), and they could be vulnerable in the secondary and to big plays deep if slot CB Jalen Pitre (shoulder), SS Jimmie Ward (head), and S Eric Murray (hand) are still injured coming out of the bye.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs. Packers
- Seahawks: +2.5
- O/U: 46.5
- TT: 22
Even with the post-bye return of teammate DK Metcalf, who missed Weeks 8-9 with a knee injury, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has barely trailed the No. 1 WR in usage over the past month, and he has certainly outpaced him in production.
- Smith-Njigba: 89% route rate | 23% target share | 25-343-2 receiving
- Metcalf: 90% route rate | 26% target share | 19-244-0 receiving
And Smith-Njigba since the Week 10 bye has also had 3-17-0 rushing, compared to no ground work in Weeks 1-9. The Seahawks are actively trying to get him the ball.
The Packers are No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (51.3%), and they might be significantly injured in this matchup.
First of all, No. 1 CB Jaire Alexander (knee) has played just 10 snaps since Week 9. In his absence, slot CB Keisean Nixon has shifted to the perimeter, which has forced FS Javon Bullard to serve as the team's primary slot defender.
The problem now for the Packers is that Bullard (ankle) exited last week with an injury—as did Bullard's backend replacement, FS Evan Williams (concussion)—and backup CB Corey Ballentine (knee), who started half the season last year for the Packers, also missed Week 14.
So the Packers secondary this week could be without three starters as well as an experienced depth player—and they specifically could be down to their No. 3 slot defender.
Given that Smith-Njigba this year has run 85.9% of his routes out of the slot (per PFF), the cluster-injury situation for the Packers could especially benefit him.
Jauan Jennings (49ers) vs. Rams
- 49ers: -2.5
- O/U: 49.5
- TT: 26
Get ready to witness some light cherrypicking. Here's the thing: I love cherries. Just sayin' …
No. 1 WR Deebo Samuel missed Week 3 with a calf strain, and No. 2 WR Brandon Aiyuk (knee, IR) exited Week 7 early with a season-ending injury.
That means Jennings has played six games (Weeks 3 and 10-14) without one of either Samuel or Aiyuk.
QB Brock Purdy missed Week 12 with a shoulder injury, and he struggled to play through his questionable tag in Week 13 after getting in only limited practice sessions on Wednesday and Thursday. In Week 14, though, Purdy had a full week of practice and wasn't listed on the final injury report.
Ergo, let's look at what Jennings has done in Weeks 3, 10-11, and 14, since the circumstances for those games most directly resemble the circumstances for this one (Purdy healthy, Aiyuk out).
- Week 3: 11-175-3 receiving | 12 targets | 89% route rate
- Week 10: 7-93-0 receiving | 11 targets | 95% route rate
- Week 11: 10-91-1 receiving | 11 targets | 97% route rate
- Week 14: 7-90-2 receiving | 8 targets | 83% route rate
As I said earlier: Cherries.
Based on how they've been used in their five games together without Aiyuk, it's hard to argue that Jennings isn't the No. 1 WR ahead of Samuel.
- Jennings: 93% route rate | 27% target rate | 32% target share
- Samuel: 85% route rate | 17% target rate | 19% target share
As it happens, Jennings had the best game of his career (11-175-3 receiving) in Week 3 against the Rams, who might be without CB Cobie Durant (chest).
Adam Thielen (Panthers) vs. Cowboys
- Panthers: -2.5
- O/U: 42.5
- TT: 22.5
Last week, the Cowboys had their starting trio of CBs Trevon Diggs, DaRon Bland, and Jourdan Lewis for the first time all season.
That's great.
At the same time, the Cowboys gave up 191 yards and 2 TDs on 18 targets and a carry to WR Ja'Marr Chase.
I'm not saying that Adam Thielen is Chase.
But over the past two weeks—since returning from a hamstring injury with a limited role in Week 12—Thielen has been used like a No. 1 WR, and the results have been desirable.
- Utilization: 81% route rate | 28% target rate | 30% target share
- Production: 17-201-1 receiving | 21 targets
Given how thin the Panthers are at pass catcher aside from Thielen, it's not hard to imagine him getting another 10-plus targets this week.
The Deep Route
CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys +2.5, TT: 20) at Panthers: Since Week 10, when backup QB Cooper Rush made his first start of the season, Lamb has averaged only 6.7 yards per target and scored just one TD. Even so, he has still managed 47 targets and 4carries in those five games. For the Panthers, No. 1 CB Jaycee Horn (groin) might be out after exiting last week early.
Mike Evans (Buccaneers +3, TT: 21.25) at Chargers: After missing multiple games with a hamstring injury, Evans has a respectable 17-255-1 receiving on 23 targets in three games since the Week 11 bye … but he'll need to get another 410 yards receiving over the next month if he's to extend his NFL-record streak of career-opening 1,000-yard campaigns to 11. I expect the Bucs to force targets his way. The Chargers are without No. 1 CB Asante Samuel (shoulder, IR).
Jakobi Meyers (Raiders +5, TT: 19.5) vs. Falcons: Since the Week 10 bye—when interim OC Scott Turner assumed playcalling duties—Meyers has 27-313-0 receiving on 42 targets with 1-20-0 rushing in four games. With that kind of volume, Meyers can probably still function even if the Raiders do go with No. 3 QB Desmond Ridder this week. The Falcons are No. 27 in defensive pass DVOA (18.6%).
DJ Moore (Bears +7, TT: 18.25) at Vikings: In his four games with interim OC-turned-interim HC Thomas Brown calling plays (28-314-2 receiving, 38 targets; 2-18-0 rushing), Moore has looked like the guy who put up 1,385 yards and 9 TDs last year in his first season with the Bears. His 98% route rate is especially studly. For the Vikings, perimeter CB Stephon Gilmore (hamstring) could be out after neither practicing nor playing last week.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Saints +7, TT: 18) vs. Commanders: This is the third week in a row I'm including Valdes-Scantling in this piece. Even though I expect QB Derek Carr (hand) to be out, Valdes-Scantling is still intriguing given that he has an 81% route rate and 11-283-4 receiving on 17 targets in his four games without No. 1 WR Chris Olave (concussion, IR) since Week 10. The Commanders are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (18.2%) and might still be without No. 1 CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring), who last played in Week 8.
Joshua Palmer (Chargers -3, TT: 24.25) vs. Buccaneers: Last week without WR Ladd McConkey (knee, shoulder), Palmer served as the top option in the pass game with a 94% route rate, 26% target rate, and 32% target share, which he turned into a season-best 6-78-0 receiving on 9 targets. If McConkey is out again, Palmer will be viable against the Buccaneers, who are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (50.3%).
Abbreviations
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
- Dropback Over Expected (DBOE)
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