Thursday Night Football, Broncos at Saints
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Underdog,
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Underdog:
TNF Preview, Denver (3-3) at New Orleans (2-4): As if we could get any less excited for an over/under of 36, Week 7 kicks off with a dull thud, as viewers get treated to two starting quarterbacks with seven total games of experience combined. Things are a mess in the AFC right now. The Broncos somehow find themselves favored on the road, tied with the Colts for the last playoff spot if the season ends today. The evidence for living in a simulation is building …
Terrified of being unprepared, I found myself down a Spencer Rattler snake-hole (see what I did there?) and must say—I’m impressed. I put together some of my favorite clips with thoughts on my X feed. Unfortunately for the 2024 NFL Draft’s 150th overall pick, the chips feel firmly stacked against him here. New Orleans possesses the second-lowest team total this week (17), even with Pro Bowl CB Patrick Surtain II out for Denver. The injury bug wreaked havoc throughout the Saints’ locker room, costing WR Chris Olave (concussion), WR Rashid Shaheed (knee), TE Taysom Hill (ribs), LB Fred Warner (hamstring), and starting C Cesar Ruiz (knee). Rattler’s essentially relying on backups against a strong defensive unit.
Speaking of the Broncos’ D, it’s hard to place them outside the top 5 units even when considering the softish competition so far. The list of accomplishments through six weeks is pretty impressive. No QB has passed for 237 or more yards or multiple scores. Wideouts total 1 receiving TD, and no one’s caught 7 balls or reached 80 yards. Denver allowed a measly 4.4 yards/play while making a remarkable 17% more splash plays than the field. What’s a splash play, you ask? It’s one of my favorite composite stats, casting a wide net to better gauge subjective impact. They’re calculated by adding Sacks + TFL + Pressures Leading to Throwaways + Run and Pass Stuffs + Int + FF + FR + Passes Defended (and Batted) + Stops on 3rd and 4th Down.
All eyes then turn to Broncos rookie Bo Nix to get his offense turned around against a Saints defense that allowed over 100 combined points in three weeks. Yikes, talk about movable force meets stoppable object. If it weren’t for Deshaun Watson, Nix would easily be the worst QB statistically in the league—in fact, he’s the only starter worse than Watson in EPA/attempt, completion rate, passer rating, and TD/INT ratio.
We could be in for a real barnburner … (yawns)
How Does Our Model Feel About TNF?
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What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Week 7 NFL Team Totals
- The New York Prop Exchange
Week 7 NFL Team Totals 🏈🔥
I’d like to take one second to thank everyone for the positive feedback on this section despite not having comments enabled. Going out of your way just to show gratitude is the literal fuel for our efforts.
So from myself and the entire Fantasy Life team—thank you. (I know team totals are impossible to find in one place, that’s why we do it!)
I’ve not been shy whatsoever about my preference to bet on team totals rather than against the spread. There’s a brief section on it here with examples. Long story short, it aids in eliminating variables while providing a single, immutable goal. However, regardless of your play style (I understand betting ATS remains king), this information above should be foundational when starting almost any betting, prop, or DFS work.
Team Total (TT) Outliers:
WAS TT 30.5: Starting with outliers, I love Jayden Daniels. And I love watching Washington every week. That said, 30 points, regardless of the opponent, feels like we may have jumped the shark for a rookie QB. The arguments are many against the Panthers, who have surrendered 108 points in three weeks are endless—just recognize how much must go right to hang +30 points on the scoreboard. Carolina’s also run the ball well (until getting blown out), which could expose a WAS secondary with obvious flaws. I’d lean toward the under if anything.
TEN TT 16.0: The Titans stick out in the other direction, projected to score only 16 points against the Bills on Sunday afternoon. I always find these low-expectation bets interesting. In fact, we did a short piece on it here. Tennessee is not good, I get it—but that’s already baked into the cake. Buffalo has struggled to stop the run (5.3 YPC, 8 +20-yard carries) and Pollard has looked reminiscent of his Cowboys days later. Not to mention, Tennessee is a legitimate force on defense and could create short fields for Will Levis. The Titans have scored 14+ points in every game and 17+ in four of five. A team total of 16 feels like unwarranted hate.
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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
👀 Claudia, Freedman, and Geoff analyze Broncos-Saints on TNF and other Week 7 Best Bets.
📺 Claudia and Thor get you ready with College Football “Against the Spread” for Week 8.
🧐 Thor Nystrom delivers his Week 8 CFB Best Bets and Props.
🐷 Texans-Packers … Lions-Vikings … Geoff Ulrich and Matt LaMarca run down Pigskin Pick’em for all Week 6 games.
🔮 The unbeaten Chiefs are underdogs? Check out Freedman’s Week 7 NFL Bets
The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️ —Bub Means Business
We can keep this one short, under the “ball has to go somewhere” banner. Before watching the QB tape, I’d have thought for sure we wanted to attack the Saints’ D for all the reasons described above—but not so fast, partner. After one game against a rather tough Texans’ D, Spencer Rattler already looked more poised than his rookie counterpart. He regularly dropped back on schedule, staying on platform and delivering balls where only his receiver could catch them.
To that end, the last man standing for the Saints is fifth-round rookie out of Pittsburgh Bub Means. Thrust right into the fire last weekend after Olave departed early, Means played great (8 Targets; 5-45-1). The rookie showed immediate synergy with Rattler, being deployed mostly underneath but from every imaginable alignment, including critical crossing routes (below):
I’m not going to retract the nice things I said about the Broncos’ defense, but they are without their best player in Patrick Surtain II. Denver has played man coverage underneath at an extremely high rate, but it’s of the softer variety. You actually can see this reflected in the 20+ completions allowed per game at a 65% clip, both at or below average—but perhaps better visualized in the pass-point chart below.
Means should get targeted early and often in a role independent of game script. Fingers crossed that Bub Means business.
THE BET: Bub Means Over 3.5 Receptions (+105; FanDuel)
How The Sharps See Two Rookie QBs on TNF
Week 7 in the NFL kicks off with Bo Nix vs. Spencer Rattler in prime time. That’s not a sentence I expected to write this season. And not one you expected to read, I’m guessing.
No matter what the week or the QB matchup, at Sharp Hunter we’re always looking at bets logged from sharp bettors. And the sharps are looking at the total for Thursday night.
While the Saints are 2.5-point home dogs, the total sits at 37 at multiple books as of Wednesday night.
It’s a total the sharps want to attack, and we’re showing a Two-Bag Sharp Score to back that up.
I will be betting with the sharps on Thursday night. I love the under here, too.
The Broncos have the #7 DVOA defense in the NFL. The Saints got SMOKED last week, but before giving up all those points to the Bucs the Saints D was also a Top-10 DVOA defense.
Both offenses are in the bottom half of the league, again using DVOA rankings. The Saints received brutal injury news Wednesday when both Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed were ruled out. That can’t be good for points on Thursday.
Trends? Oh, they’re in our favor, including one big one: TNF totals at 40 or less are coming in for the under over 70% of the time since 2010.
Good defenses vs. mid offenses with rookies QBs and, oh yeah, playing on a short week. Plus some key injuries.
I’m riding with the sharps here and happy to play a TNF under.
Projections for Tonight’s TNF Game
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