Top Picks for Oilers vs. Panthers Game 1: Stanley Cup Finals Best Bets

The NHL season started back in mid-October. After 12 games the Edmonton Oilers stood with a 2-9-1 record and were battling the San Jose Sharks (who they lost to 3-2 on November 9) for last place in the entire league. The Oilers then went on a run of epic proportions that included an 8-game winning streak in December.

After securing the 4th seed they dispatched the LA Kings easily in five games, survived the extremely game Vancouver Canucks and upset the Dallas Stars, who were supposedly the deepest team in the West.

The Florida Panthers took a much more direct path. They were one of the leaders in the Eastern Conference all season, building off the momentum of their Stanley Cup Finals appearance from 2022-23. They took down division rival Tampa Bay in five games and then dispatched the Bruins and Rangers in six games a piece.

Neither team has what you would call a star goalie, but both Stuart Skinner and Sergei Bobrovsky have what it takes to make a deep run in the playoffs – mainly big-game upside. The edge in star power is with Edmonton who have Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, who between them have won three of the past four Hart Trophies. However, the Panthers have lived up to their billing as the deepest team in the league this playoffs after a bevy of deadline acquisitions.

So how do we approach this series for betting and Game 1 which goes off at 8:00 p.m. EST this Saturday? Your Stanley Cup Finals best bets are below.

Picks for Oilers vs. Panthers Game 1

The Oilers currently stand as high as +115 on the series line to defeat Florida. If you simply want to pick a side and aren’t worrying about capturing the most upside with your bet that is the side I would lean in that market.

Edmonton’s skill players have been impossible to shut down and they’re a better even-strength team than any of Florida’s previous three opponents. Even despite a Game 6 that saw them get outshot 34-10, the Oilers were superior to Dallas at 5v5 for much of the series ranking slightly higher than they did in xGF% and the teams were dead even in high-danger scoring chances.

That’s Edmonton in a nutshell.

While they won't always land the most shots on net they’ll still get their chances and when they do those chances will be of the highest quality.

Additionally, while much was made about the goaltending advantage the Stars had in the last series that advantage never came to pass. Stuart Skinner can be maddingly inconsistent but as I pointed out in the final few games against Dallas, his upside remains as high as any goaltender in the league.

Skinner posted a .915 SV% when the Oilers went on their December run to get back in the playoffs race and a .931 SV% that month at 5v5. He was similarly good against Dallas in the final three games stopping 72 of the last 76 shots the Stars threw at him. If anything, I would be more wary of putting too much faith in the 35-year-old Sergei Bobrovsky who is on his second straight long playoff run and now facing a team with more speed and quick strike capability than he’s seen all playoffs.

Oilers to win Series 4-2 (+500; bet365)

As much as I like Edmonton to eventually win this series, I don’t see the danger of a sweep or a gentleman’s sweep (Oilers win in 5 games) being very high. The Oilers have followed a pretty similar path in their first three series to date.

They’ve been good starters, winning two of three Game 1’s (and they had Vancouver down 4-1 in Game 1 or Round 2 before blowing that lead), and have also yet to lose two games in a row at home or on the road. But they’ve been far from perfect and certainly lacked the killer instinct in the middle portion of their series, allowing Vancouver and Dallas to take 2-1 leads.

Right now, an Oilers sweep (Oilers to win 4-0) is set at +1200 on bet365 which gives us a 7.67% implied probability of that event occurring. That’s a low percentage but honestly doesn’t seem low enough just given the Panthers' depth and overall experience. In contrast, the Oilers implied probability to win the series is set around 47% (+108 to +115; depending on the sportsbook), but their odds to win the series 4-2 (six games) are much higher.

At +500 the implied probability is just 16.67%, which is just over 2x the odds of an Oilers sweep. That gap doesn’t seem big enough to me.

While there is always the threat of a Bobrovsky injury, I like the idea of locking in this series correct score bet at its current price. Additionally, this number is big enough that if you got to a Game 6 with the Oilers having a shot of closing things out, you could hedge and still potentially make out with more profit than you would by simply betting a single unit on the series line.

If you’re up for a more in-depth series preview, Matthew Freedman and I also discussed this bet (and more) in detail in our the Stanley Cup Betting Podcast (found on the Fantasy Life YouTube channel).

While there are certainly a lot of ways to bet Edmonton going with a correct 4-2 series score bet does seem like it offers some of the best value in the overall series markets.

Connor McDavid to win Conn Smyth (+220; FanDuel)

I discussed McDavid being a great bet in this market way back in Round 2 and logged a bet on him in our NHL Bet Tracker as well.

Here’s a summary of thoughts from that article:

“If you like Edmonton to go far this season there just seems to be little downside to using McDavid to win the Smythe as a way to get a better price on that thesis. Given the very generous prices we were getting in the anytime goal markets in Round 1, we can always keep betting on Draisaitl's goal props anyway and look to profit off his success on a game-by-game basis instead.”

To be honest, everything I wrote in that paragraph still applies. McDavid at +220 is essentially 2x the odds the Oilers are currently set at to win the series. While he does bring more tail risk than a straight Oilers to win the series bet, McDavid is the clear frontrunner for the award at the moment. You also have to think that given his standing in the league (three-time MVP, most scrutinized and discussed player of the last decade) the old baseball adage “a tie goes to the runner” will apply in McDavid’s favor if this award is anything near a coin flip in general statistical terms at the end.

Again, if you simply want to pick a side, then there is no harm in playing the Oilers to win the series, especially given that they are set as underdogs. But if you’re interested in capturing more upside in a hypothetical Edmonton win (and don't mind a little extra risk), taking McDavid to win the Conn Smythe is a good way to achieve that goal.

Game 1: Panthers vs Oilers Over 5.5 Goals (-115; bet365)

Over 6.5 goals
Over 7.5 goals

The stars on both teams will be well rested in Game 1 making it a good time to play for a higher-scoring affair. We’ve seen elimination games go almost exclusively under as a result of that fatigue in these playoffs, but series openers have been a different story, specifically for Edmonton.

The Oilers are 2-1 to the over in their three previous series openers and played in one of the highest-scoring games of the playoffs against the Kings back in Round 1 (a 7-4 Oilers win). They also played in a back-and-forth Game 1 against Vancouver (5-4 Canucks OT win) in Round 2, and are 4-2 to the over in the first two games of their series, in these playoffs.

Florida has been a stellar under play but seeing the Oilers speed for the first time could give them problems early on. I also have no problem counting on the skill players of the Panthers to respond to an early barrage, especially with an unpredictable goalie like Stuart Skinner on the other side. His presence also brings in more shootout scenarios for Game 1, where the over could by multiple goals – making the over on alternate lines at 6.5 and 7.5 playable for me as well.

Game 1: Sam Bennett Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+120; bet365)

The Panthers have been doing a great job of scoring by committee all playoffs. However, one name who came on strong in the last round for Florida was Sam Bennett, who moved onto a line with the creative Matthew Tkachuk late in that series.

Bennett averaged 8.0 shot attempts per game in the final three games against New York and was able to land three goals and 11 shots on goal over that span as well. The former Flame benefited from the open ice and attention that Tkachuk’s tenacious style creates for his linemates and I don’t see that changing much against Edmonton. Unless Bennett gets moved back down to a third-line center role, he seems likely to be a key figure for the Panthers again.

There are multiple ways to play Bennett for Game 1 but with Florida on home ice and able to match lines, and potentially able to get Bennett/Tkachuk out more against Edmonton’s bottom six, playing the over on his shots-on-goal total looks like a strong play. The line is currently set at 2.5 with a 45.45% implied probability to the over which offers some short term value just based on Bennett’s most recent performances (he’s gone over this in three of his last six games, despite playing on the third line for half of those games).

You could also look to play Bennett as an anytime goal scorer as his odds in this market remain unchanged over the last series with FanDuel listing him as big as +420. If you do, combining him with a Matthew Tkachuk assist prop in an SGP or Underdog Pick’em ticket is another way to get exposure to the Panthers forward.

Underdog NHL Pick’em for Oilers vs. Panthers Game 1

(5-way, 12.24x multiplier)

McDavid has been far more active as a shooter over his last three or four games and that’s a trend I expect to continue into the Finals.

Despite the tough matchup against Aleksander Barkov, he’s done well against Florida from a stat perspective over his career and has averaged 1.0 goals and 4.0 shots on net over his last three games vs the Panthers.

Playing his HIGHER on 0.5 goals with the scorcher upgrade also means we can get some great correlation by adding in an Evan Bouchard HIGHER on 0.5 assists AND going HIGHER on Sergei Bobrovsky 2.5 goals allowed.

You could end things there and make it a 3-way play, but adding in our SOG prop from above (Bennett HIGHER 2.5 SOG) means we can fill out a 5-way card with even more correlation by going HIGHER on Stuart Skinner’s save total of 27.5 as well.

Skinner has been far better on the road this offseason so if we’re trusting him to come through with a big game in any spot in this final, these first two games might be the best time to do it.

Top Picks for Oilers vs. Panthers Game 1: Stanley Cup Finals Best Bets

Picks for Oilers vs. Panthers Game 1

Oilers to win Series 4-2 (+500; bet365)

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Connor McDavid to win Conn Smyth (+220; FanDuel)

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Game 1: Panthers vs Oilers Over 5.5 Goals (-115; bet365)

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Game 1: Sam Bennett Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+120; bet365)

Underdog NHL Pick’em for Oilers vs. Panthers Game 1

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