Week 14 Sunday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Eagles at Cowboys

We’ve had some outstanding NFC showdowns in recent weeks, and we’ll get another one on Sunday Night Football in Week 14. The Eagles will travel to Dallas for an NFC East matchup against the Cowboys.

This game has massive postseason implications. The Eagles are currently holding a one-game lead over the Cowboys for not just the division but also the best record in the NFC.

Winning this game could help lock up the NFC East and the best record in the conference, which would land the victor a first-round bye and potential home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Losing this matchup would likely mean the loser becoming a Wild Card team that will have to play three straight road games in the postseason.

Philadelphia managed to take care of business at home in their first matchup this season. Can Dallas hold serve on their home turf? Let’s dive into my best bets for Sunday Night Football.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Cowboys -3.5 (-105, BetMGM)
Total: 51.5
Moneylines: Eagles +145 / Cowboys -175

The Eagles still hold the top seed in the NFC heading into this rematch, but they were a bit exposed last week against the 49ers. For weeks, Philadelphia has managed to eke out wins despite having been outplayed for large stretches of those games.

Although their record is that of a strong playoff contender, underlying metrics reveal some issues. The Eagles have been outgained by an average of 109.25 yards in the four games prior to their loss to the 49ers last week, and the Eagles rank merely 14th in yardage differential on the season.

From a scoring perspective, Philadelphia hasn't been doing much better. They currently rank seventh in scoring differential, and their expected record of 6.9-5.1 is well below their actual mark of 10-2.

Finally, this team doesn’t fare particularly well in advanced stats either. The Eagles' offense ranks fifth in EPA per play, but their defense is dreadful at just 27th. Overall, they rank eighth in total DVOA, so they're good but not truly elite.

Dec 3, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) is tackled by San Francisco 49ers defensive tackle Javon Hargrave (98) during the fourth quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

The discrepancy between their sterling record but less-impressive underlying stats has resulted in the Eagles being overvalued. We saw it last week against the 49ers, and I think that we’re seeing it again this week against the Cowboys.

NFL.com has Philadelphia power rated as the third-best team in the league, one spot ahead of Dallas. However, the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings have the Eagles in seventh and the Cowboys in fourth. Dallas is considered 7.35 better than league average while the Eagles are merely 4.82 over average.

The knock on the Cowboys has always been that they can’t win the big games. They won’t be able to change that narrative until the postseason, but they could start to shift some opinions with a win over the Eagles.

Dallas has basically steamrolled every opponent in 2023 with the lone exception being the 49ers. San Francisco is a clear tier above everyone else right now, though, so there’s no shame in losing to the 49ers on the road.

From a metric standpoint, Dallas seems to be the better team. They currently lead the NFL in scoring differential and rank third in yardage differential, both of which are better than Philadelphia. The Cowboys also rank more highly in EPA per play on both offensive and defensive and have a league-best 9.5-2.5 expected record.

It’s true that Dallas hasn’t played the toughest schedule so far. Only two of their 12 previous contests have come against teams that currently boast a winning record: the Eagles and 49ers. They lost both of those contests, so it’s hard to get a feel for just how good this team actually is.

It’s put up or shut up time for the Cowboys. If they can’t get the job done at home on Sunday night, then maybe this team simply won't ever live up to expectations despite the lofty talent level and metrics on paper.

Best Bet: Cowboys -3.5 (-102, DraftKings)

If it wasn't already abundantly clear, I’m definitely looking to fade the overvalued Eagles. I’ve bet against them in each of their past three contests and have gone 2-1 ATS in the process. I was lucky enough to lock in the Cowboys at -2.5 on the lookahead line in our NFL Bet Tracker, but I still think you can play them even at -3.5.

In addition to Dallas simply being the better team, this is a spot that has historically been favorable for them. There are three situations where Dak Prescott has been extremely profitable during the regular season: at home, as a favorite, and in divisional games:

Prescott ATS at home: 32-23-1 (12.9% ROI)
Prescott ATS as favorite: 47-32-2 (14.7% ROI)
Prescott ATS in division: 27-11-0 (38.4% ROI)

Combine all three of those scenarios, and Prescott is a sparkling 14-4 ATS as a divisional home favorite. He’s 2-0 in that split so far this season, and he’s 12-2 in these situations dating back to the start of the 2018 season. Even though Prescott has the reputation of not coming through in big games, he’s certainly delivered in these spots.

Now that the line is up to -3.5, we have started to see a bit of money coming in on the Eagles. The Cowboys were the clear preferred side for the sharps at -3.0 or better, but the betting action has been split at the current number. With that in mind, I think that the move here could be to wait and see if this line gets back down to 3.0 before kickoff. Regardless, though, I’m siding with Dallas at home on Sunday night.

You can tail the Cowboys on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up for a new account and place a $5 bet below!

Player Props

One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry.

There are a few wagers that stand out as appealing when using the tool for this matchup.

Rico Dowdle Over 14.5 Rushing Yards (-115, BetMGM)

Bet To: Over 17.5 (-110)
Fantasy Life Projection: 24.6

Expectations were insanely high for Tony Pollard heading into this season. Ezekiel Elliott departed for New England this past offseason, leaving Pollard to take over one of the most lucrative backfields in all of fantasy football. Unfortunately, that monster fantasy season is looking like “fetch” – it’s just not going to happen.

Part of that is due to Pollard playing less efficiently in 2023 than he was the last few seasons, but Dowdle has also been part of the problem. Although Dowdle hasn’t had a huge workload, he’s done just enough to be an annoyance for fantasy managers with Pollard. However, their loss is our gain, as Dowdle provides value in the prop market pretty much every single week.

Nov 23, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle (23) runs the ball in the first quarter against Washington Commanders linebacker Khaleke Hudson (47) at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

His current rushing prop is set at just 14.5 yards, and Dowdle has hit the over on that figure in eight of 12 games this year. He’s also hit the over on that figure in every game where he’s received at least four carries, and he’s done that in three of the past four weeks.

Thus far on the season, Dowdle has seen a not insignificant 20% snap share and 19% rush share. He’s simply not going away. We have Dowdle projected for 5.7 carries and nearly 25 rushing yards, so there’s significant upside in taking the over on 14.5 rushing yards against the Eagles.

You can tail the over on Dowdle's rushing yards on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!

Dak Prescott Over 38.5 Pass Attempts (-105, DraftKings)

Bet To: Over 38.5 (-115)
Fantasy Life Projection: 35.0

Our projections are not particularly bullish on Prescott’s passing volume this week, but I think that the projections are overly conservative. The Cowboys have deployed a pass-heavy game plan in three of their past five games, and they don’t have a single game below “balanced” all season. Prescott has attempted at least 41 passes in two of his last five outings, including a season-high 44 attempts in the first matchup against the Eagles earlier in the year.

The best way to attack Philadelphia is also clearly through the air. They currently rank a lowly 26th in dropback EPA allowed, and they’ve ceded some huge games to QBs this season. The Eagles have allowed at least 310 passing yards in four of their past five games with the lone outlier being against the Chiefs. Even in that game, Patrick Mahomes still attempted more than 40 passes in that contest, so opposing QBs have been slinging it all over the yard against Philadelphia as of late.

With Prescott in the midst of an MVP-caliber season, expect the Cowboys to keep the ball in his hands as much as possible in this primetime NFC East showdown.

Brandin Cooks Anytime TD (+200, BetMGM)

In a game with a total over 50 points, there’s no shortage of players to look at in the TD market. Geoff Ulrich highlights Cooks as his favorite option in his Week 14 TD article:

“Cooks only caught one pass in the first meeting between these two teams in Week 9, but since that game, he’s been an essential part of the Cowboys' passing attack. Cooks has gone for over 40 receiving yards in four straight games, and more importantly, he's caught TDs in three of the last four.

Over their last four games, the Eagles' secondary has also been lit up on a weekly basis.

They’ve allowed nine TDs over that span to opposing WRs and gave up two TDs to two different Dallas WRs back in Week 9. Given that Cooks has established himself now as the clear No. 2 WR alongside CeeDee Lamb, betting on Cooks for an anytime TD this week at +200 seems like a reasonable idea.

The Cowboys' 27.5-point implied team total is the third-highest on the slate, and the Eagles have allowed just three rushing TDs to RBs this season.”

Ladder Bet

If you’re new to ladder bets, they’re a really fun way to try and add some extra upside to your bets. Instead of just betting the over on a player’s prop, you can try to “ladder up” by grabbing higher payouts at larger numbers.

For example, you can bet on a player to get 50-plus yards at +100, 75-plus yards at +300, and 100-plus yards and +750. If you stagger your bets properly, you can win if the player goes over the first number, and you win big if the player goes all of those lines. For a more detailed breakdown, Geoff did a great job of explaining ladder bets.

If we’re taking the over on Prescott’s passing attempts, as recommended above, it then would also make sense to try and climb the ladder with CeeDee Lamb.

Nov 30, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) catches a pass for a touchdown against the Seattle Seahawks during the first half at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Lamb has been one of the most active WRs in the NFL this season. He’s dominated the target share in Dallas, having racked up a 29% target share and 37% air yards share thus far in 2023. That usage has resulted in some monstrous performances:

Week 8: 12-158-2 against the Rams
Week 9: 11-191 against the Eagles
Week 10: 11-151-1 against the Giants
Week 13: 12-116-1 against the Seahawks

Given his potential weekly ceiling, Lamb seems underpriced towards the top-end of his range of outcomes. You can grab 100-plus receiving yards for him at +110, 125-plus receiving yards at +225, and 150-plus receiving yards at +450 on FanDuel. All of those receiving totals seem attainable considering the matchup, Vegas total, and projected game script.

You could also add a 10-plus receptions line for a Lamb same-game parlay, but 10-plus receptions and 150-plus receiving yards only returns +507, which doesn’t seem like enough additional reward to justify the risk.

You can tail this ladder bet on FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users who place an initial wager of $5 or more will get $150 in bonus bets after creating a new account. Click below to learn more!

Same-Game Parlay

Same-game parlays (SGPs) are about telling a story. Can Love build on his recent string of solid performances? Will the Chiefs' offense wake up from their early-season slumber? There are ways to tell yourself a story to correlate your SGP and profit.

I’m starting my SGP with the Cowboys' side, but I’m going to do it with an alternate number. Pushing it up to -6.5 gives us a bit more upside, and I think that it’s very possible for them to win by a TD if Dallas wins at all with strong execution at home on Sunday night.

After that, I’m pairing the over on 295 passing yards for Prescott with at least 10 receptions for Lamb. Not only do those two bets correlate, but they just seem underpriced given how pass-heavy the Cowboys have been recently and how vulnerable the Eagles’ secondary has been.

Finally, we’ll wrap things up with the under on 24.5 points for the Eagles. If we're already betting on Dallas to win this game by at least a TD, then I think we’ll need a subpar showing from Philadelphia's offense. I could see this rematch playing out similarly to the Eagles' loss to the 49ers last week if a motivated Cowboys defense shows up at home.

Add it all up, and this SGP for Sunday Night Football has a potential payout of over +1400:

Same-Game Parlay

Regardless of how you choose to play this contest, good luck this week!

You can tail this SGP on FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users who place an initial wager of $5 or more will get $150 in bonus bets after creating a new account. Click below to learn more!

Week 14 Sunday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Eagles at Cowboys

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Best Bet: Cowboys -3.5 (-102, DraftKings)

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Player Props

Rico Dowdle Over 14.5 Rushing Yards (-115, BetMGM)

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Dak Prescott Over 38.5 Pass Attempts (-105, DraftKings)

Brandin Cooks Anytime TD (+200, BetMGM)

Ladder Bet

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Same-Game Parlay

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