And then there was one. The final game of the 2023 NFL regular season should be full of fireworks with the Buffalo Bills facing the Miami Dolphins for the AFC East crown on Sunday Night Football.

The stakes in this game couldn’t get much higher. Not only will the winner take the division, but they'll also get the No. 2 seed in the conference. If Buffalo were to lose, they could miss the playoffs entirely. Miami would still have a Wild Card spot in the playoffs even with a loss, but they obviously want to win the AFC East and would prefer to open with a game at home in the playoffs. 

The good news for the Bills is that they enter this game on a four-game winning streak and mostly healthy while the Dolphins are coming off a disappointing blowout loss and major injuries on both sides of the ball.

Can Buffalo retain the AFC East crown on Sunday night, or will the Dolphins win their first divisional title in 15 years? Let’s dive into the best bets for the final Sunday Night Football game of the 2023 season.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

• Spread: Bills -3.0 (-110, BetMGM)
• Total: 48.5
• Moneylines: Bills -160 / Dolphins +130

While the Bills' motivation for this contest is clear, how the Dolphins will choose to approach things is a bit murkier. A win and the No. 2 seed in the AFC would certainly be nice, but is it worth risking further injury to key players just before the playoffs? That remains to be seen.

The fact that Miami suffered a significant injury in each of the last two weeks only complicates matters. The Dolphins left their defensive starters in down 30 points against the Ravens last week, and Bradley Chubb suffered a season-ending ACL injury.

Chubb led the team with 11.0 sacks this season, so his absence will have a massive impact on a defense that played really well over the second half of the year. Miami led the league in EPA allowed per play defensively since Jalen Ramsey returned from injury in Week 8 heading into last week, and even after a disastrous showing in Baltimore, they still rank seventh in that metric.

Unfortunately, Chubb isn't the only impact player hurt for the Dolphins. Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert are both questionable after having missed last week’s contest, and cornerback Xavien Howard has already been ruled out with a foot injury. On top of that, linebacker Jerome Baker is questionable with a knee injury, and if he can't go, they'd be without four of their defensive starters for this crucial AFC East showdown.

Dec 17, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) runs with the football past New York Jets cornerback D.J. Reed (4) during the second quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

The Bills are in a much better place from an injury perspective. They’re still without Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White, both of whom have missed most of the season, but center Mitch Morse is the only player currently listed as questionable. He’s currently dealing with an illness, so the Bills should be pretty close to full strength regardless of his final status.

The injuries and potential motivation concerns for the Dolphins are clearly impacting the spread. Massey-Peabody has the Bills listed as roughly 0.5 points better than the Dolphins on a neutral field, which would make the Dolphins favored in a home game. Instead, the Bills are currently favored by a full field goal.

Offensively, Buffalo has undergone a seismic shift under new coordinator Joe Brady. The team has leaned much heavier into the run game over the past three weeks with dropback over expectation rates of -10%, -16%, and -9% respectively in those games.

The Bills have featured James Cook in these recent contests and are likely to continue to do so against the Dolphins this week. Cook has averaged 4.8 yards per carry this season, and Miami has struggled to stop the run. Although their run defense has improved over the second half of 2023, they still rank just 15th in rush defense EPA.

Additionally, though the Dolphins' reputation has been as an offensive juggernaut, they’ve failed to put up points in some of their tougher matchups this year. That includes their first meeting against the Bills, where they scored just 20 points in a 28-point loss. However, it's worth noting that Buffalo had Milano and White healthy for that game, so Miami could find more offensive success this time around.

Best Bet: Under 48.5 (-110, BetMGM)

I highlighted this play in my Week 18 Sharp Report, but the pros love the under in this spot. The under has received 98% of the dollars on 87% of the bets per the Action Network, making it one of the most heavily-bet sides of the week.

In a game that should have a playoff-type atmosphere, points could be at a premium. Don’t be surprised if both teams start with some jitters on offense, which could result in a slow start.

Additionally, the Bills’ emphasis on the run game as of late is ideal for under bettors. Running the ball keeps the clock rolling, which results in fewer possessions overall. And while Buffalo has scored at least 24 points each of their last three run-heavy games, all of those contests still ended with fewer than 48.5 total points scored.

With the Dolphins' offense dealing with some key injuries to Waddle and Mostert, they likely won’t be as explosive as usual either. After a hot start to the year, Miami has now scored just 22 and 19 points in their last two games, respectively, albeit against two strong defenses in Dallas and Baltimore.

The final X-factor is that this will be the final game of the regular season. If one of these teams can get out to a big lead, particularly the Bills, it wouldn’t be a huge shock if the other team were to pull their starters a bit earlier than usual. Both teams could play again on Wild Card Weekend, possibly against each other. Losing someone like Josh Allen or Tua Tagovailoa would be devastating for their playoff prospects, so there’s a non-zero chance that starters could sit for part of this game in the event of a blowout.

You can tail the under on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!

Premium

Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.

Claim Offer

Player Props

One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry.

There are a few wagers that stand out as appealing when using the tool for this matchup.

Josh Allen Under 33.5 Pass Attempts (-114, FanDuel)

• Bet To: Under 32.5 (-115)
• Fantasy Life Projection: 31.0

I’m a big fan of fading Allen’s passing volume in this matchup. Not only does it grade out well in our projections, but it aligns with what we’ve seen from the Bills’ offense lately. This team wants to get the ball in Cook’s hands, and they want Allen to use his legs around the goal line.

Allen was one of the most pass-heavy QBs in football to start the season under offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, but he’s now attempted 31 or fewer passes in each of their last three games. He’s also gone way under this line in two of those three contests with just 15 pass attempts against the Cowboys and only 21 against the Chargers.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen tucks the ball and scores a touchdown on this play. Photo Credit: Jamie Germano / USA TODAY NETWORK

If the Bills are able to run the ball efficiently, something they’ve had no problem doing recently, there’s a chance that Allen could again go way under this mark of 33.5 pass attempts.

Again, I’m also factoring in the slightest chance that Allen could finish this game on the sideline. If Jacksonville were to lose earlier on Sunday, Buffalo would then be guaranteed a playoff spot. In that event, Allen could get benched in the fourth quarter if his team is winning or losing by a sizable margin.

You can tail the under on Allen's pass attempts on FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users who place an initial wager of $5 or more will get $150 in bonus bets after creating a new account. Click below to learn more!

Premium

Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.

Claim Offer

Dawson Knox Under 12.5 Receiving Yards (-110, DraftKings)

• Bet To: Under 10.5 (-110)
• Fantasy Life Projection: 7.0

Since we’re already betting against a big day from Allen through the air, let’s double down by grabbing the under on one of his pass-catchers. Dawson Knox seems like the perfect candidate.

Since returning to the lineup in Week 14, Knox has served as the clear No. 2 TE behind Dalton Kincaid. Knox is still playing a lot, having seen a 42% route participation over the last four weeks, but he’s been a non-factor in the passing game. He’s had a target share of 10% or lower in all four contests, and he didn't see a single target in two of them.

Overall, two or three targets seems like Knox's ceiling at this point, and his floor is zero targets. We have him projected for just over one target and seven receiving yards, so getting the under on 12.5 receiving yards provides plenty of value.

You can tail the under on Knox's receiving yards at DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $5!

Premium

Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.

Claim Offer

Dalton Kincaid Anytime TD (+280, Caesars)

Speaking of Kincaid, Geoff Ulrich likes him to score a TD at +280. Here’s what Geoff had to say in his Week 18 TD-scorers piece:

“We have a game with a higher point total for Sunday (48.5) and a Dolphins defense that's coming off a game where they just allowed 56 points and five TD passes to the run-heavy Ravens. One of the main leaks in Miami's defense that Baltimore exploited was down the middle with TE Isaiah Likely, who found the end zone twice in the rout. 

While I don’t expect Kincaid to necessarily mirror Likely’s level of success, you have to believe that the Bills are aware of how effective Likely was in the shorter part of the field and have some plans to use Kincaid similarly.

The rookie TE has been a disappointment since Buffalo changed offensive coordinators, but Kincaid was more involved last week, as he tied for the team lead in targets (7) and posted 87 yards, a season-high for him.

With the Bills favored with an implied team total of around 25.5 points, the +280 TD odds available on Kincaid look big enough to play in the regular season finale.”

You can tail Kincaid's ATD bet at Caesars, where you can get your first bet of up to $1,000 completely on the house when you sign up for a new account below!

Premium

Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.

Claim Offer

Ladder Bet

If you’re new to ladder bets, they’re a really fun way to try and add some extra upside to your bets. Instead of just betting the over on a player’s prop, you can try to “ladder up” by grabbing higher payouts at larger numbers.

For example, you can bet on a player to get 50-plus yards at +100, 75-plus yards at +300, and 100-plus yards and +750. If you stagger your bets properly, you can win if the player goes over the first number, and you win big if the player goes all of those lines. For a more detailed breakdown, Geoff did a great job of explaining ladder bets.

Since we’re fading Allen as a passer, let’s see if we can take advantage of his rushing prowess instead. Allen remains one of the best goal-line hammers in all of football, having rushed for 15 TDs through his first 16 games. He’s been even more efficient on the ground lately, having rushed for at least one TD in five straight games and having run in two TDs in three of those five.

We can look to ladder up Allen’s TD props by grabbing him as an anytime TD scorer at -125 and two-plus TDs for Allen +500 on FanDuel. If you’re really feeling frisky, you could even bet on Allen to score three-plus TDs at +2900. Allen has never rushed for more than two TDs in a game in his career, but maybe a must-win game against a divisional foe could give him an extra boost on the ground.

Same-Game Parlay

Same-game parlays (SGPs) are about telling a story. Can Hall outperform expectations for the Vikings, or will the Packers roll to a win and keep their playoff hopes alive? There are ways to tell yourself a story to correlate your SGP and profit.

Let’s go big for the final game of the regular season. I’ve cooked up a five-leg SGP with a potential payout of +2368, but I honestly don’t think it’s all that ambitious. We’ll obviously need a few things to break in our favor, but it seems +EV at the current odds.

It starts with Bills -2.5 and the under on 48.5 points. I highlighted why I like the under earlier in this article, and Buffalo is my preferred side in this matchup. They’re healthier, playing better, and have more on the line than Miami heading into Sunday night.

After that, I’m going with Allen as an anytime TD scorer. He’s run for at least one TD in all but four games this season, so I think his -125 anytime TD odds are extremely fair.

As for the final two legs, we'll take two receiving yardage totals: under 12.5 yards for Knox, as outlined above, and then Tyreek Hill over 94.5 yards. Hill is the healthier Dolphins WR, and he has an outside chance at making history currently sitting at just 247 receiving yards behind Calvin Johnson’s single-season record of 1,964.

I'd expect Miami to feature Hill early and often in this crucial contest for both reasons. Even if Hill doesn’t ultimately break that record, he’s also had at least 95 receiving yards in all but six games this season. Add it all up, and it looks something like this:

Regardless of how you choose to play this contest, it’s been a pleasure having you follow along for each Sunday Night Football game this season. Of course, the journey doesn’t end here. Make sure to stay tuned for all of our betting content during the NFL playoffs!

You can tail this SGP on FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users who place an initial wager of $5 or more will get $150 in bonus bets after creating a new account. Click below to learn more!

Premium

Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.

Claim Offer