Week 9 Sunday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Bills @ Bengals

Week 9 features a handful of marquee matchups, but Sunday Night Football might be the best of the bunch. The Bills will travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals in a rematch from the divisional round of the 2022 playoffs.

Both of these teams entered 2023 with massive expectations, and both squads are legit Super Bowl contenders. That said, they’re trending in opposite directions. Buffalo has failed to cover in four straight games while Cincinnati has now won three straight. Joe Burrow is also coming off his best performance of the year against a strong 49ers team after having struggled with a calf injury early in the year.

Can the Bengals keep rolling, or will the Bills be able to right the ship? Let’s dive into the best bets for Sunday Night Football.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Bengals -2.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Total: 50.5
Moneylines: Bills +115 / Bengals -135

The health of Burrow has been one of the biggest stories of the early season. Through the first six weeks, Burrow ranked 28th out of 31 qualified quarterbacks in EPA + CPOE composite. Only Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, and Kenny Pickett were worse at that point among qualifying QBs, and that’s not the kind of company we expect Burrow to keep.

Last season, Burrow was seventh EPA + CPOE composite. So even though he didn’t miss any time due to his calf injury in 2023, it was clear that he wasn’t operating at full strength to start the season.

The Bengals were on bye in Week 7, and there was hope that Burrow would be able to heal up. And if Week 8 was any indication, Burrow is officially back. He torched the 49ers for 283 yards and three TDs while completing 87.5% of his passes and had the third-best EPA + CPOE composite among all QBs in Week 8.

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) throws a pass in the third quarter of the NFL game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the San Francisco 49ers at Levi Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., on Sunday, Oct 29, 2023. Photo Credit: Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

If Burrow is back to being Joe Brrr, the Bengals are once again one of the best teams in the league. Their defense is solid – particularly their pass rush – and they were one of the best ATS teams in football over the previous two seasons. Including the playoffs, Cincinnati had a 27-13 record ATS from 2020 to 2021 and was the most profitable team in the NFL over that span.

On the other side, the Bills have hit some stumbling blocks as of late. It started with a loss to the Jaguars in London, and they followed that up with a closer-than-expected win over the Giants the following week. After that, the Bills lost outright to the Patriots as big favorites and then bounced back last Thursday with a close win against the Buccaneers.

It's been a roller coaster ride, and Buffalo has now failed to cover in four straight games, which has happened only once previously with Josh Allen at QB. That came back in 2020, and Allen racked up 415 passing yards and four total TDs in that contest.

Will we see a Herculean effort from Allen on Sunday Night Football this week? It’s possible, but I’m not sure if the Bills are 100% focused at the moment. They probably could’ve beaten the Buccaneers by 40 points last week but seemed to coast all game long.

This primetime matchup is obviously much more important to avenge their playoff loss to Cincinnati from last January, but Buffalo will need to fire on all cylinders to do so, which we haven't seen them do lately.

Best Bet: Bengals -1.5 (-115, FanDuel)

This is a tough game to handicap. I did lock in a play on Bengals -1.5 early in the week, but that was mostly because I thought that this line would move in their favor. The line is at -2.5 across most of the industry, and it even touched 3.0 at a few different points earlier this week. With that in mind, I think Bengals -1.5 was the right decision at the time.

Still, there’s a clear buy-low case to be made on the Bills right now. They remain one of the best teams in football, and they have a clear edge in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings. The power ratings have Buffalo nearly five points better than Cincinnati on a neutral field, so even in Cincinnati, it believes that the Bills are the correct side.

However, it’s important to remember that the Bills have not played at that level recently, and they’re currently dealing with some massive injuries. Cornerback Tre’Davious White and linebacker Matt Milano are both on IR, and they’re two of the best in the league at their respective positions. DaQuan Jones is also sidelined, and he’s graded out as one of the best interior defensive linemen in football this year per Pro Football Focus (PFF).

The opportunities to back Burrow at these prices are also few and far between. He’s 20-12 ATS for his career as an underdog or favorite of less than a field goal, good for a 19.9% return on investment.

The best way to play the Bengals currently is at FanDuel, where you can grab the at -1.5 (-115). You could consider just taking the moneyline, but if Cincinnati ends up winning the game, they'll likely also cover. That means that you wouldn't get much value while taking on additional exposure by betting the moneyline, so just betting the spread makes more sense.

You can tail the Bengals on FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up and place your first bet of $5 or more!

Player Props

One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry.

There are a few wagers that stand out as appealing when using the tool for this matchup.

Dalton Kincaid Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-135, DraftKings)

Bet To: Over 40.5 (-110)
Fantasy Life Projection: 43.5

Our projections aren’t super bullish on Kincaid, but it’s hard not to be excited about the rookie TE in this spot. Dawson Knox remains sidelined, and Kincaid has seen a nice spike in production with Knox out. Kincaid say a season-high 85% route participation in Week 8 against Tampa Bay, and he's had at least five receptions and 65 yards now in back-to-back games.

Kincaid also has an elite pedigree. He was the TE selected in the 2023 NFL Draft due to his athleticism with elite college production. It’s notoriously difficult for TEs to make an impact in their rookie season, but so far, Kincaid has managed to buck the trend.

Oct 26, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid (86) scores a touchdown as Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Ryan Neal (23) defends in the second quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

The Bengals are also an excellent matchup for TEs. Cincinnati currently ranks dead last in fantasy points per game allowed to TEs, and you can’t surrender that many fantasy points without giving up plenty of yards along the way.

Add it all up, and I’m willing to play Kincaid almost all the way up to his Fantasy Life projection.

You can tail Kincaid's over on DraftKings, where you can sign up to get $200 in bonus bets by placing an initial bet of $5 or more. Click below to get started!

Joe Burrow Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-160, BetMGM)

Bet To: Over 1.5 (-180)
Fantasy Life Projection: 1.82

Taking a prop at -160 might not be the most appealing wager, but that doesn’t mean that it’s not still a good value. This prop is as high as -195 elsewhere, and we have Burrow projected for closer to two TD passes in this matchup.

Scoring should be plentiful on Sunday night, as this game is one of the few in Week 8 where the total has actually increased since opening, having moved from 46.5 to 50.5 points. The sharps are all over the over in this matchup, so Burrow should be able to put the ball in the end zone more than once.

Even operating at less than full strength for most of the year, Burrow still has at least two TD passes in four of seven games in 2023. That includes each of his past three contests, including three TD passes last week. With the Burrow Express going full steam ahead, this is a great number to target.

You can tail the over for Burrow on BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!

Tee Higgins Anytime TD (+180, Caesars)

I’m not a TD prop guy. I know, I know…I’m real fun at parties. While my buddies are all sweating out degenerate plays like a Noah Gray anytime TD during the Super Bowl, I’m the guy with a ticket on no safety at -1000.

Fortunately, Geoff Ulrich is more willing to live a little. He's highlighted Tee Higgins as a worthy anytime TD play in this game:

The Bills shored up their secondary this week with the trade for Rasul Douglas but will have more than one elite WR to deal with in this spot. Expect Douglas and the Bills to be preoccupied with Ja’Marr Chase allowing, potentially, Tee Higgins to benefit.

In his first healthy game in a month, Higgins looked like his old self against San Francisco, going for over 10.0 yards a catch and hauling in five of six targets.

Buffalo has allowed 7 receiving TDs to WRs already and Higgins remains second on the team in red zone targets, despite missing a game and being banged up most of the year. He’s got a good chance to break out on SNF.

You can tail Higgins on Caesars and get your first bet of up to $1,000 on the house when you create a new account below:

Ladder Bet

If you’re new to ladder bets, they’re a really fun way to try and add some extra upside to your bets. Instead of just betting the over on a player’s prop, you can try to “ladder up” by grabbing higher payouts at larger numbers.

For example, you can bet on a player to get 50-plus yards at +100, 75-plus yards at +300, and 100-plus yards and +750. If you stagger your bets properly, you can win if the player goes over the first number, and you win big if the player goes all of those lines. For a more detailed breakdown, Geoff did a great job of explaining ladder bets.

For this contest, I’m looking to ladder up on James Cook’s rushing yards. You can get him for 50-plus rushing yards at +100, 75-plus rushing yards at +350, and 100-plus rushing yards at +725.

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) finds a big hole at the line of scrimmage against Tampa Bay. Photo Credit: Jamie Germano / Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK

Cook has only had over 75 rushing yards in two games this season and has only broken 100 rushing yards once, but he's seen excellent utilization all season. He’s averaged 54% of the team’s rushing attempts in 2023 and seen over 64% in each of the last two weeks. Cook has also averaged 5.2 yards per attempt in his career, so he’s capable of producing when given the opportunities.

On top of that, the Bengals have struggled to stop the run this year, ranking just 23rd in rushing EPA allowed and 22nd in rushing success rate allowed to opponents.

We have Cook projected for approximately 53 rushing yards, so you could certainly just play the over on his traditional rushing prop. However, I like the idea of swinging for the home run here. Cook has the speed to break a long run on any given rush attempt, so he could break 100 rushing yards even if he doesn't get a ton of carries against Cincinnati on Sunday night.

Same-Game Parlay

Same-game parlays (SGPs) are about telling a story. Can the Bears keep this game competitive, or will the Chargers assert their dominance? There are ways to tell yourself a story to correlate your SGP and profit.

This should be a really fun game to watch, and I’m going to stick with the Bengals on the spread to start my SGP.

After that, I’m looking for plenty of points. It’s no secret that unders have dominated this season, particularly in night games. The under has been 20-7 on Thursday, Sunday, and Monday Night Football, and unders are 145-91-3 since the start of the 2019 season. Still, very few of those games have featured the kind of elite QB play that we should see on both sides of this matchup, and the sharps clearly like the over in this matchup.

Next, I’m going to add three-plus passing TDs for Burrow and an anytime TD for Ja’Marr Chase. The correlation between those bets is pretty obvious, and they also correlate with a Bengals cover and over 50.5 points.

Finally, I’m going to add 50-plus rushing yards for Cook. You could go higher on his rushing total if you really want to swing for a home-run SGP, but +1100 is tasty enough for me:

Same-Game Parlay

Regardless of how you choose to play this game, good luck this week!

You can tail this SGP on BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!

Week 9 Sunday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Bills @ Bengals

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals

Best Bet: Bengals -1.5 (-115, FanDuel)

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Player Props

Dalton Kincaid Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-135, DraftKings)

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Joe Burrow Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-160, BetMGM)

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Tee Higgins Anytime TD (+180, Caesars)

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Ladder Bet

Same-Game Parlay

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