Fantasy Football Playoffs Question: Trust Or Bust For This WR?
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Bleacher Nation Fantasy, debating trusting AJ Brown, Freedman's Favorites, Ian's Manifesto, and more.
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Bleacher Nation Fantasy:
Since Week 8, A.J. Brown has finished outside the Top 24 WRs five times.
He has only one Top-12 finish during that span.
Not since his rookie year has he averaged so few targets per game.
On Sunday, he earned a measly four targets vs. the Panthers.
And he was not happy about it after the game.
Now fantasy managers are left to wonder…can I possibly trust AJB in Round 1 of the fantasy playoffs?
On the one hand, it’s impossible to use the word “trust” when it comes to the Eagles passing game right now. With Saquon Barkley chasing the rushing record, they’ve literally become the most run-heavy team in the league over the past four weeks.
That said, we might be looking at a squeaky-wheel situation with AJB.
Yesterday, Kellen Moore hinted at getting him more looks this week vs. the Steelers.
And it’s worth noting that the squeaky wheel has historically gotten the ball on this squad.
In his early Week 15 ranks, Matthew Freedman slotted Brown at WR7 as part of the Tier 2 WRs.
It doesn’t feel great, but you have to start him this week. The squeaky wheel is going to get the grease.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Freedman’s Favorites: Top Plays for Week 15
- Watercooler: Bench what big-name players?
- Ian’s Manifesto: Everything you need to know for Week 15
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Stat of The Day 12/11: Kimani Vidal Played on 53% of the snaps in Week 14
We talked about Kimani Vidal last week before the Sunday Night Football game as a player to watch.
He scored only 3.4 fantasy points vs. the Chiefs, but saw a big increase in role that makes him a player you need to keep an eye on during the fantasy playoffs, and potentially get out in front of if you’re in a deeper league—or need RB help.
The Chargers had Gus Edwards start the game but mixed in Vidal regularly after the first couple of drives. The rookie ended the day with just two fewer carries than Edwards (8 compared to Edwards’ 10) and played on more snaps than Edwards (53% to 44%, via our Utilization Report) which showcases his overall versatility compared to the one-dimensional Edwards.
It was also noteworthy that the Chargers trusted Vidal enough to have him out there on the final drive of the game taking handoffs, and that he was the only RB who saw a target in the passing game.
With Hassan Haskins (healthy scratch) out of the mix, this is now a more manageable situation for fantasy purposes and one where Vidal should continue to get opportunities. If Edwards stumbles or gets injured, it’s possible Vidal may even end up in a bellcow role before the fantasy season ends, making him a high-end stash/handcuff over the next three weeks.
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
🧐 Ian and Dwain analyze Utilization Report data and identify players to target.
🚑️ Bad news for the Steelers. Big matchup to miss.
😬 Big-name players to BENCH for the playoffs? Matthew Berry chimes in.
😭 The 5 Stages of Missing the Fantasy Playoffs. I felt this.
🍝 A new QB in New Orleans. He beat Schefter to the punch.
🚑️ A brutal injury for Dallas. Awful stuff.
🍿 Week 15 playoff scenarios. Things are heating up.
👀 Mark Gastineau wants his sack record back. Lol.
Freedman’s Favorites for Week 15
Here are two of Matthew Freedman's favorite fantasy plays for Week 15. Check out his full articles and rankings for more.
Joe Mixon (Texans) vs. Dolphins
If you had to create the perfect situational setup for an RB to go off, it might be something like this.
Favored
At home
Off a bye
Facing an opponent off an overtime game
Done, done, done, and done.
The setup for Joe Mixon is about as good as it could be.
Minus his injury-impacted Week 2, Mixon has been a league winner in his nine full games with 16-plus opportunities in all of them and 20-plus in all but one. For the season, he's No. 2 at the position in our Fantasy Life Utilization Score (9.0).
Given the circumstances and Mixon's history of usage and production, it's fair to expect a big performance from him against the Dolphins, who could be without LB Anthony Walker (hamstring).
David Njoku (Browns) vs. Chiefs
In the seven games since the Browns traded former No. 1 WR Amari Cooper to the Bills in Week 7, David Njoku has been a dominant force.
Utilization: 85% route rate | 23% target rate | 24% target share
Production: 46-350-5 receiving | 72 targets | Two 2-point conversions
And without WR Cedric Tillman (concussion) over the past two weeks, Njoku has leveled up again.
Utilization: 88% route rate | 29% target rate | 31% target share
Production: 16-94-3 receiving | 30 targets
Tillman is uncertain for Week 15, but I'm skeptical that he'll play given that he's yet to return to practice and still in the league's protocol. If he's out, then Njoku will once again have a strong shot at double-digit targets against the Chiefs, who are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (12.1).
MORE OF FREEDMAN’S FAVORITE RBs FOR WEEK 15
MORE OF FREEDMAN’S FAVORITES:
- WRs for Week 15: JSN has stepped to the front of the class.
- QBs for Week 15: Lamar Jackson coming off a bye could be dangerous.
- TEs for Week 15: David Njoku targeted early and often.
Week 15 Ian’s Manifesto
By Ian Hartitz
Who has the best and worst schedules for the fantasy playoffs?
I've put together the best and worst schedules in terms average PPR points allowed to each position on a few occasions this year, so why not one more before the biggest home stretch of the season?
Feel free to click the hyperlink on each position for a full chart.
Best schedules: Titans, Giants, Raiders, Cardinals, Panthers
Worst schedules: Lions, Patriots, Vikings, Seahawks, 49ers
Focus: Cardinals QB Kyler Murray, who gets the Patriots, Panthers, and Rams to end the season. Things haven't gone great for the QB11 in fantasy points per game, but it'll be tough to keep Kyler out of the top 10 in each of these respective potential smash spots. The pint-sized franchise QB does deserve credit for clearing 250 pass yards in five of his last six games after surpassing that threshold just once in his first seven contests; a boom or two on the ground could result in a top-5 finish here.
Best schedules: Jets, Lions, Titans, Vikings, Cardinals
Worst schedules: Steelers, Chiefs, Texans, Bears, Bills
Focus: Titans RB Tony Pollard, who gets the Bengals, Colts, and Jaguars in Weeks 15-17. The Titans spoke all offseason about Pollard and Tyjae Spears being interchangeable, but that simply hasn't been the case—the ex-Cowboy is truly the workhorse and should have every opportunity to end the season in style with three straight smash matchups. This is also a good reminder that Spears remains one of the better handcuff stashes out there (same with Trey Benson and to a lesser extent Cam Akers).
Best schedules: Raiders, Giants, Bears, Packers, Titans
Worst schedules: Jaguars, Colts, Lions, Cowboys, Rams
Focus: Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers, who will face the Falcons, Jaguars, and Saints to close out the fantasy season. The reality that Aidan O'Connell (knee) reportedly avoided major injury definitely helps here, and accordingly Meyers should have every chance to stay hot. Consider: He's posted PPR WR20, WR16, WR48, WR7, WR25, and WR27 finishes since returning from injury; don't be surprised if more upside WR2 goodness is on the way for this potential sneaky league winner.
Best schedules: Titans, Browns, Texans, Vikings, Saints
Worst schedules: Rams, Patriots, Bills, Ravens, Colts
Focus: Browns TE David Njoku, who has a chance to end 2024 in style against the Chiefs, Bengals, and Dolphins. The TE5 since Jameis Winston took over in Week 8, Njoku is serving the "F*ck it" role for Winston when all else fails, leading to plenty of contested-catch opportunities. Fun fact: Only Ja'Marr Chase (12) and Demarcus Robinson (8, lol) have more end-zone targets than Njoku (7) since Winston took over. I'm comfortable firing up Njoku as THE TE1 in fantasy for this stretch run.
DST:
Best schedules: Jaguars, Bengals, Colts, Raiders, Packers
Worst schedules: Steelers, Patriots, Texans, Jets, 49ers
Focus: Colts DST, who don't exactly have a layup this week in Mile High against the Broncos, but we're talking about two potential SMASH matchups in Weeks 16 and 17 against turnover-prone QBs Will Levis and Drew Lock.
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