Quarterbacks for Fantasy Football Week 3
Matthew Freedman goes through his favorite players at the quarterback position for Week 3 of the fantasy football season, highlighting matchups and more.
Before we get into my favorite quarterbacks for fantasy football Week 3, here are a few notes.
Injuries: I'm writing this piece on Monday and Tuesday, which means I won't have complete information regarding several players injured this past weekend. For the most part, I'll try to avoid highlighting players who might miss time to injury or who might see extra playing time if someone else ahead of them on the depth chart is out.
2023 Defensive Data: This is the final week in which I'll rely more on last year's data than this year's. It's not as if what defenses did in Weeks 1-2 doesn't matter, but for the purposes of evaluating skill-position matchups it still matters a little less than the 2023 numbers.
Pearl Jam: That's right, baby. They're playing at Fenway Park on Tuesday night, and I've decided to rediscover my youth and go to the concert. As a result, this edition of the article might (or might not) be shorter than it usually is. Rest assured, I'm putting the same research time into the piece. I just might (or might not) put a little less writing time into it. And that might (or might not) be a win for everybody, if we're being honest (your editor thanks you, Freedman).
Let's get to Week 3.
If you want to find the rest of my favorite positional fantasy football plays for Week 3, see below:
- Quarterbacks for Fantasy Football Week 3
- Running Backs for Fantasy Football Week 3
- Wide Receivers for Fantasy Football Week 3
- Tight Ends for Fantasy Football Week 3
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Best QBs for Fantasy Football Week 3
Here are my preliminary Week 3 favorites. These are the guys who (in some combination) …
- Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
- Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
- Must be added if they are on waivers.
- Possess underappreciated upside.
- Have advantageous matchups.
- Should be considered in DFS.
- Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
- Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
- Catch my eye with their player projections.
- Stand out in our player prop tool.
Some notes.
- Updates: After I submit this piece (on Tuesday afternoon), any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my weekly fantasy football rankings and my NFL player projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.
- Rankings Accuracy: Last year I was No. 18 in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest. That was my sixth season with a top-20 finish.
- Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but maybe not precisely) according to my rankings.
- Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.
- Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 12:45 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Sep. 17, and based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life NFL Betting Odds Page.
Kyler Murray (Cardinals) vs. Lions
- Cardinals: +3
- O/U: 52.5
- TT: 24.75
I have a few simple life rules, one of which is this: If Baker Mayfield can do it, then Kyler Murray can do it. And that's nothing against Baker … but let's be real: Kyler is the better player.
If Baker can lead Oklahoma to a 12-2 record and win the Heisman Trophy in 2017, then Kyler can in 2018. If Baker can go No. 1 in the NFL Draft in 2018, then Kyler can in 2019. If Mayfield can have an efficient 8.4 AY/A and 5-34-1 rushing against the Lions in Week 2, then Kyler can in Week 3.
In the words of Ron Burgundy, "It's science."
I love this matchup for Murray against the Lions, who are yet to cover themselves in glory: In Week 1, they yielded 317 yards passing to Matthew Stafford, last week they got Bakered in a home loss, and last season they were No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (20.0).
With a rebuilt secondary—not one of their starting corners was with the team last year, and Brian Branch has shifted from slot to safety—the Lions could struggle against the pass for at least another week, and Murray has looked great as a thrower through two weeks with 428 yards and 4 TDs passing to no INTs with a 73.1% completion rate and 9.8 AY/A.
Matthew Berry's 2024 Ride or Die, Murray is dealing.
And he looks all the way back as a runner with 10-116-0 rushing. It appears the season-ending knee injury he suffered in 2022 is not slowing him down.
I have a bet on Cardinals +4.5 this week in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker, and Murray as an underdog is 26-15-2 ATS (21.7% ROI) and 17-24-1 ML (20.0% ROI, per Action Network).
And do I also have a +10000 ticket on the Cardinals to win the No. 1 seed in the NFC? You bet I do.
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Derek Carr (Saints) vs. Eagles
- Saints: -3
- O/U: 49.5
- TT: 26.25
Here's another random rule of mine: If you do it against the Panthers, it means almost nothing to me … but if you do it against my Cowboys, I've gotta respect it.
When Derek Carr put up 200 yards and 3 TDs passing in a 47-10 home win over the lowly Panthers in Week 1, it felt fluky.
But when the dude my mom refers to as "Elvis Eyes" (sadly, not a joke) put up 243 yards and 2 TDs passing (plus a one-yard rushing TD) in a 44-19 road win against the Cowboys in Week 2 … it felt like just maybe the Saints have found some voodoo magick with new OC Klint Kubiak.
That's right: "Magick," with a "k."
If Kubiak is gonna insist on spelling his first name with a "k," then the “magick” he brings with him also must have a "k."
It's science.
Under Kubiak, the Saints have jumped from No. 32 (14.4%) in play-action rate to No. 1 (52.3%), and with him the Saints have been historically great to open the season.
At some point, regression will come for Carr and the rest of the Saints offense. He can't maintain a league-leading 12.8 AY/A for the entire season.
But the Saints offense is here to stay, and I doubt regression will hit Kubiak's unit with full force this week, because I have my doubts about the Eagles defense.
Last year the Eagles were No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA (21.3%, per FTN), and they could struggle with scheme and communication in the secondary early in the season with new DC Vic Fangio and three new starters (CBs Isaiah Rodgers and Quinyon Mitchell, SS C.J. Gardner-Johnson).
And the Eagles are on short rest coming off Monday Night Football.
If available, Carr should be added from waivers. For at least one more week, he and Kubiak should continue to krush.
The Dropback
Joe Burrow (Bengals -7.5, TT: 27.25) vs. Commanders: Last year the Commanders were No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA (34.8%) and dropback EPA (0.199, per RBs Don’t Matter). I can imagine the Bengals being popular in survivor contests (such as the Circa Survivor).
Jayden Daniels (Commanders +7.5, TT: 20.25) at Bengals: Daniels leads all QBs with a 15% scramble rate and 75% of his team's carries inside the 5-yard line (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report). I am maximally invested with bets on Daniels to win OROY, to pass for over 3,025.5 yards, and to rush for over 525.5 yards.
Jared Goff (Lions -3, TT: 27.75) at Cardinals: The Cardinals last year were No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (51.0%). Goff leads the league with 83 pass attempts.
Malik Willis (Packers +2.5, TT: 17) at Titans: "If you prick us do we not bleed? If you tickle us do we not laugh? If you poison us do we not die? And if you wrong us shall we not revenge?" Last year the Titans were No. 30 in defensive dropback EPA (0.132).
Skylar Thompson (Dolphins +5.5, TT: 18) at Seahawks: Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) has been placed on IR and will be out at least four games (maybe more), which means Thompson is slated to start in his place. Coming off Thursday Night Football, the Dolphins have three extra days to get Thompson ready, he has elite pass catchers around him, and the Seahawks last year were No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA (18.4%).
More Fantasy Football Plays for Week 3
- Quarterbacks for Fantasy Football Week 3
- Running Backs for Fantasy Football Week 3
- Wide Receivers for Fantasy Football Week 3
- Tight Ends for Fantasy Football Week 3
Abbreviations
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
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