RB Rankings For Week 1: Saquon Barkley, James Conner And More Of Freedman's Favorites
Matthew Freedman is back with Freedman's Favorites, where he breaks down the best players at each position weekly. This edition features the running backs.
This is my 10th season writing the weekly piece now known as Freedman's Favorites, which this year will be split into four separate positional breakdowns (QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs).
In the olden days, my articles were intentional tomes. I tried to cram into them every actionable insight I could find.Now, I strive for brevity—for the sake of my readers, editors, family and sanity. I enjoy beating dead horses, but not everyone shares my sickness. For the past few years, not unlike a '90s rock band playing an unplugged set, I've steadfastly endeavored to strip everything down to its essential purple core. (Yes, that's a Stone Temple Pilots reference.)Instead of talking about all the players in a slate, I now focus on the guys I like. And instead of giving you 5-8 data points on a player, I now give the 2-3 most important.The older I get, the more valuable I realize time is—and I don't want to waste it for anyone with a piece longer than necessary.
With that in mind, let's get into the Week 1 RB edition of Freedman's Favorites.But first, as always, some notes.Freedman's Favorites for Week 1
In this piece I highlight some RBs I expect to perform better than they usually do. Basically, these are guys I'm upgrading this week.
Rankings, Projections & Newsletter: I think of this piece as a companion to my weekly rankings and my weekly projections, which is where any updated opinions will manifest after article submission. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.
Access: To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.
Schedule: I plan to abide by the following rankings and projections schedule this season.
- Tue AM: Publish rankings and projections
- Thu AM: Refresh rankings and projections
- Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
- Sat PM: Update rankings and projections
- Sun AM: Revise rankings
- Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 p.m. ET kickoff
Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better. Not bad.
Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.
Cohesion: While my positional breakdowns are published separately, I think of them as comprising one larger whole, so check out the rest of my favorite Week 1 fantasy football plays (via my Fantasy Life author page).
- Quarterbacks
- Wide Receivers (to be released)
- Tight Ends (to be released)
Abbreviations: See the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.
Freedman’s Favorite Week 1 RBs
Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs. Cowboys
I'm a self-loathing Cowboys fan, so it's easy for me to say that this defense sucks—but it really sucks.
Last year, the Cowboys were No. 29 in defensive rush SR (44.5%, per RBs Don't Matter). And it's not as if that was a fluke: The year before, they were No. 32 (44.0%).
They might be a little better this year in run defense with the recent addition of NT Kenny Clark … but in order to get him they gave up two-time first-team All-Pro EDGE Micah Parsons, so, you know, that's probably not a net positive.
Additionally, the Cowboys are without LB DeMarvion Overshown (knee, PUP) … and their defense could struggle early in the year anyway with the transition to DC Matt Eberflus, the team's third defensive play caller in three seasons.
So the Cowboys are bad … and then the Eagles are good.
They have a top-three OL. Last year they had a league-high 56.3% rush rate. And this week they could have an extremely run-heavy game script as big -7.5 home favorites with a league-high implied team total (27.5, per our Fantasy Life Odds Page).
And then there's Saquon Barkley himself. Last year he had a transcendent OPOY campaign with an NFL-best 2,283 scrimmage yards in 16 games, and he finished No. 1 at the position with 21.2 FPPG and seven top-five fantasy finishes (per our Fantasy Life Scoring Matrix).
In two contests against the Cowboys last year, he racked up 247 yards.
In the prop market, he has high scrimmage yardage totals (per our NFL Prop Bet Finder).
- BetMGM: 11.5
- FanDuel: 114.5
- DraftKings: 117.5
I currently have him projected for 113.5. All of these numbers feel reasonable … and also conservative.
Honestly, if the Eagles wanted to make a point of humiliating the Cowboys, Barkley could hit 150+ yards in the home opener as the Super Bowl champions kick off their 2025 title defense.
James Conner (Cardinals) at Saints
One day, James Conner's body will totally give out.
The guy's now 30 years old, he's never been an elite player, and over the past four seasons he's missed 11 games.
But it probably won't be this week, because in 2024 the dude looked better than ever with career-high marks across the board.
- Games played: 16
- Touches: 283
- Scrimmage Yards: 1,508
In his four seasons with the Cardinals, Conner has been a consistent producer with 1,000+ yards and 8+ TDs every year—and with OC Drew Petzing he has accumulated 2,713 yards and 18 TDs in two campaigns.
The Cardinals could run the ball a lot as -6.5 favorites, and I'm not worried about their being on the road, for three main reasons.
On the road, QB Kyler Murray is 25-13-2 ATS (26.1% ROI, per Action Network). Travel means less at the beginning of the season, when teams are less tired. And over the past five years, the Saints have been No. 2 in worst home-field advantage (-0.75, per NFElo).
And then there's the matchup itself: Last year, the Saints were No. 30 in defensive rush DVOA (3.2%, per FTN).
I don't see why that should change under new DC Brandon Staley, whose scheme notoriously invites the run: In his three seasons as Chargers HC, his defense was No. 32 in rush SR (44.2%).
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders) vs. Giants
The seventh-round rookie has been a standout riser over the past couple months.
In most dynasty rookie drafts in May, Jacory Croskey-Merritt ("Bill") went unselected.
Now, he looks like the No. 1 RB for the high-scoring Commanders.
Thanks to a strong training camp and preseason (18-70-1 rushing, 3-8-0 receiving), Croskey-Merritt rendered veteran RB Brian Robinson expendable, and so the Commanders traded Robinson to the 49ers last week.
And that puts Croskey-Merritt in line to inherit the 200+ opportunities Robinson earned in each of the past three seasons.
Despite being a late Day 3 selection, the rookie has potential. At the Big 12 Pro Day, Croskey Merritt exhibited strong speed (4.45-second 40-yard dash) and explosiveness (41.5-inch vertical jump), and in college he put up 1,368 yards and 19 TDs in 13 FBS games.
Croskey-Merritt is not without risk: He's still likely to split work with veteran RBs Austin Ekeler and Chris Rodriguez.
But he could see extended action at home as a big -6 favorite, and the Giants last year were No. 4 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+4.7).
The Checkdown
Kyren Williams (Rams) vs. Texans: Williams last year was the No. 1 RB with an 86% snap rate, and I have him projected for an NFL-high 13.9 TDs. I respect the Texans defense, but Williams as a home favorite is a strong bet to find the end zone.
Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) at Jaguars: Last year, Hubbard was the No. 4 RB with an 85 Utilization Score (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report), and the Jags were No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (22.9). New Jags DC Anthony Campanile has never called plays before in the NFL.
Kenneth Walker III (Seahawks) vs. 49ers: Walker has averaged 79.3 scrimmage yards per game for his career, and the 49ers last year were No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (21.9). The Seahawks OL should be better this year with the addition of Round 1 LG Grey Zabel.
Tyrone Tracy (Giants) at Commanders: The Giants are underdogs … but QB Russell Wilson is 44-27-2 ATS (20.3% ROI) when getting points. Last year, Tracy impressed as a rookie with 1,053 yards and 6 TDs in 13 games as a lead back, and the Commanders were No. 29 in defensive rush EPA (0.014).
Travis Etienne (Jaguars) vs. Panthers: I think Etienne is still the No. 1 RB for the Jags (based on his preseason utilization), and he could return to his 1,400-yard form with new offensive HC Liam Coen. He could see sustained action as a -3 home favorite against the Panthers, who last year were No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.097) and SR (50.9%) and rush DVOA (14.1%).
Abbreviations
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
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